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Soccer Transfer Rumors

July 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Here is the latest transfer gossip courtesy of The Secret Betting Club’s Ed Darnell.

Where will Tevez go next?

It seems every week the sagas involving Carlos Tevez, Luka Modric, Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas take new twists and turns so I’ll cover these four before moving on and getting into other, faster moving, speculation.

Tevez – He wants to go, City have set a figure of £50million and no one is willing to match it.  This is pretty much the excepted situation so we’ll work on that basis.  Corinthians, his first club, have made a bid in the region of £38m.  They say this is their final offer and so far City haven’t taken it, they’re probably waiting to see if Real Madrid are ready to make a better offer, or if a deal can be struck with Los Blancos involving a player-swap deal.  If no one comes in with a better offer than Corinthians they might take it.  Granted, £38m is cheap for a player of Tevez’s calibre in today’s market but he is desperate to leave and there is little chance of him coming back to haunt his former club if he’s shipped off to the other side of the world, the Brazilian outfit are 5/6 with BlueSquare and 888Sport to capture the forward, City are 5/2 to keep hold and Real Madrid are 4/1 to snap him up with the same bookmakers.

Modric – Again, he wants to go but Spurs won’t sell.  Chelsea are the ‘frontrunners’ in that he wants to go there but it just doesn’t look like Harry Redknapp and Daniel Levy are going to give in – certainly not for anywhere under £30m, maybe more.  He could move on in the closing stages of the window if Redknapp can find a replacement, although personally I’d give Niko Kranjcar a go but that doesn’t seem to be the thinking at White Hart Lane.  It is essentially up in the air and Redknapp and Levy may see sense and cash in, but at the moment Modric looks more likely to stay than leave – although the bookmakers don’t see it like this and the Croat is 4/7 with 888Sport, BlueSquare and Victor Chandler to join Chelsea, or 6/4 with Victor Chandler to stay at Spurs. This looks a pretty decent price to me – especially as Spurs have made such a massive point of insisting he is not for sale.

Nasri – As far as I can see this one is case closed.  Arsene Wenger has said he’d rather keep him for a season and lose him for nothing next summer than sell him for £20m now.  This may seem a little strange but the Gunners don’t really need the money (after recent investment) and he could always change his mind if they’re doing well.  It would probably take money no one is willing to pay, given his contract situation, to prise him from the Emirates and his many suitors will probably hold out until next summer.  Man Utd, though, believe that Nasri is going somewhere – just not to them and in this age of player power it rarely happens that players hell-bent on moving don’t get their way. Ultimately the player rather than Arsenal probably holds the whip hand. The Frenchman is 1/2 to stay a Gunners with 888Sport and BlueSquare, or 9/2 to join Manchester United with the same bookmakers.  Interestingly, Nasri is just 4/6 with SkyBet to move to Eastlands but 9/4 with BlueSquare and 888Sport.

Fabregas – He is going to Camp Nou and I’d rule all other destinations out at this stage.  Barcelona are yet to match Arsenal’s valuation and reports in Spain have indicated they will hold out until the end of the transfer window before trying to push through a deal. It reads like a game of poker where everyone knows the outcome in advance and only the details of the deal are up for grabs.  The bottom line is that Fabregas will be a Barcelona player at some stage and presumably later this summer. That is about it with Fabregas, everything else just seems to be hearsay and random quotes from various Barca players all saying essentially the same thing – “He wants to come here, and we want him” – the same stuff we’ve read for over a year now. PaddyPower are offering 8/13 that he moves on, or 6/5 for Fabregas to stay.

Back to Eastlands…

Man City boss Roberto Martinez is the bookies favourite to sign Atletico Madrid’s Sergio Aguero in a £40m+ deal.  The Argentine may not be an exact like-for-like replacement for Tevez but as one of these modern winger/striker/forward type players he basically fits the bill, and his probable arrival could convince City to part with Tevez.  Real Madrid and Juventus will provide plenty of competition for Aguero AKA Diego Maradona’s son-in-law but City should have the financial clout to win the battle (they could even cut some sort of Tevez related deal with Real to get them to back off).  Aguero is 6/5 to join City, 11/4 to move across Madrid to the Bernabeu or 9/4 to move to Juventus, all with SkyBet.

Liverpool have all but picked up Stewart Downing for £20m – at time of writing personal terms are being discussed- but one question springs to mind ‘why?’.  This is a huge price for the occasional England international and this isn’t the sort of inspiring piece of business that makes you think Liverpool  have a chance of mounting any sort of title challenge.

Downing’s move is expected to see Villa move for Wigan’s £9m rated Charles N’Zogbia, although they will probably face a bit of competition from other similar profile sides.   Villa boss Alex McLeish is also thought to be close to securing keeper Shay Given from Manchester City, after Brad Friedel joined Spurs earlier in the summer.

I’m a little surprised Scott Parker hasn’t moved anywhere yet but I’m sure he’ll leave West Ham before the window closes.  Villa could well be an option for the Hammers midfielder as McLeish has seen a lot of Villa’s creative talent in midfield move on and he’ll be keen to bring a bit of quality to replace the likes of Downing and Ashley Young.  Spurs could be an option too, keeping the midfielder at home in the capital. This could come into play especially if Spurs lose Modric. Chelsea have also been linked with the tiny Croatian playmaker but in all fairness I can’t see it.  However, the Stamford Bridge side are the 10/11 favourites with SkyBet (maybe they know something I don’t), Villa are 2/1, while Spurs are 5/1 with the same bookmaker.  I wouldn’t be rushing in to follow the money in this Modric market.

I could really have included Bolton’s Gary Cahill in the list of lengthy sagas but this one seems to have hit a stalemate, and crucially the Wanderers are essentially looking to sell at this point.  Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City have all been linked, with the Gunners seemingly the most likely.  No one seems to want to pay £17m though, but there could be room to manoeuvre later in the window – Arsenal midfielder Denilson is apparently attracting their interest and could potentially form part of a cash-plus-player offer.

In a bit more Wanderers news Stoke are after Matt Taylor, and chances are it is on the money.  It isn’t the first time Tony Pulis has been credited with an interest in the versatile left-sided  defender/midfielderwith the explosive shot. At £1.5million he would be fairly cheap.  Despite the fact, the ex-Portsmouth man, managed to force his way into the Bolton side last season, I’m not sure boss Owen Coyle is a massive fan of Taylor, having inherited him when taking over. The Scot bought Martin Petrov last year and has been linked with a few potential rivals for Taylor’s position.  Coyle is also keen on Man United striker Danny Welbeck, a scorer v Spain and one of the few decent performers for England in the U21 Euros earlier this summer. The youngster is available on loan, and considering the Bolton boss’ penchant for borrowing players from the bigger sides there could be something in this one – although Daniel Sturridge is probably Coyle’s first choice, if possible, Bolton and Sunderland could yet find themselves in a battle to secure Wellbeck’s services.

Newcastle have always stressed they’re going to reinvest the money raised from Andy Carroll’s sale into the squad and boss Alan Pardew remains keen to pick up a big name, or at least highly-rated, striker to inspire The Toon Army.  The Geordies have already signed Demba Ba, who should flourish at St James’, and PSG’s Mevlut Erding has been linked with a move to Newcastle for some time now.  The Parisians have already picked up Kevin Gameiro, ironically beating Newcastle to his signature, which could tempt them into allowing Erding to move on to the North East.

Update on the New Boys

I’ve expressed my concerns about QPR before but now they’ve finally made a significant move, of sorts, by securing free agent Jay Bothroyd.  A few Premier League clubs had been linked with the striker – so some must think he can cut it in the top flight, having failed to cut the mustard previously.  Certainly, his  former boss Arsene Wenger is on record as suggesting that he regrets letting Bothroyd leave Arsenal too early. QPR Boss Neil Warnock has also picked up free agent Kieron Dyer. Obviously, the former England midfielder, best known for having the Newcastle team bus re-route to Birmingham after he has left an diamond-encrusted earring in the dressing room, won’t be fit all season but should do the job whenever he is and is probably a decent acquisition.

One of Warnock’s key issues will be replacing Adel Taarabt, if/when he heads for pastures new.  Paris St Germain are keen on the Moroccan and the QPR boss has turned his attentions to Lazio’s Pasquale Foggia as a replacement, according to the player’s agent anyway.  I’ll be totally honest, I don’t know enough about Foggia to make a judgement on this one and I can’t recall seeing him play for Lazio, but he seems surplus to requirements in Rome and if Warnock is genuinely interested he could be well placed to seal a deal.

Swansea are still hunting a new keeper to replace Dorus Devries, who has signed for Wolves. Boss Brendan Rogers is also seemingly resigned to the fact Fulham’s David Stockdale is off the market.  The Cottagers number two was their top target so boss Brendan Rodgers will have to look elsewhere.  The biggest coup the Swans have pulled off this week is keeping hold of Neil Taylor, who has decided to stay at the Liberty despite interest from Newcastle. That reversal could stall any exit for Jose Enrique from Tyneside, with Liverpool, Arsenal and a couple of Spanish sides in the hunt for his signature.

Norwich boss Paul Lambert has already done a fair bit of business and has now indicated he is planning to scour the loan market to bolster his options.  It worked well with Henri Lansbury last year and the Arsenal academy graduate could head back to Carrow Road for another loan stint.

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Finally…

Here is a brief table of completed deals, it may not be a 100% accurate at time of publishing but should prove a useful reference tool.

Arsenal:

IN: Gervinho (£11m, Lille)

OUT:  Gael Clichy (£7m, Manchester City)

Aston Villa:

IN: Alex McLeish (manager), Nathan Delfouneso (loan return, Burnley)

OUT: Gerard Houllier (manager), Brad Friedel (Free, Spurs), Ashley Young (£15m, Manchester United)

Blackburn:

IN:

OUT: Phil Jones (£17.5m, Manchester United), Frank Fielding  (undisc, Derby)

Bolton:

IN: Darren Pratley (free, Swansea)

OUT: Johan Elmander (free, Galatasaray), Rodrigo Moreno (loan return, Benfica), Daniel Sturridge (loan return, Chelsea), Tamir Cohen, Jlloyd Samuel, Joey O’Brien (all released), Ali Al Habsi (£4m, Wigan), Daniel Ward (£1m, Huddersfield).

Chelsea:

IN: Andre Villas-Boas (manager)

OUT: Carlo Ancelotti (manager), Michael Mancienne (undisc, Hamburg), Jeffrey Bruma (loan, Hamburg)

Everton:

IN:

OUT: James Vaughan (£2.5m, Norwich)

Fulham:

IN: Martin Jol (manager), John Arne Riise (Fulham).

OUT: Mark Hughes (manager), Diomansy Kamara (free, Eskisehirspor), Kagisho Dikgacoi (undisc, Crystal Palace),             Eddie Johnson , Matthew Saunders, Pascal Zuberbuhler , Zoltan Gera , John Pantsil (all released).

Liverpool

IN: Jordan Henderson (Sunderland, £20m), Charlie Adam (£9m, Blackpool)

OUT: Nikola Saric (released)

Manchester City:

IN: Stefan Savic (undisc, FK Partizan), Gael Clichy (£7m, Arsenal)

OUT:

Manchester United:

IN: Phil Jones (£17.5m, Blackburn), Ashley Young (£15m, Aston Villa), David de Gea (£20m, Atletico Madrid)

OUT: Owen Hargreaves (released), Paul Scholes, Edwin van der Sar (both retired), Ritchie de Laet (loan, Norwich), Wes Brown (Sunderland), John O’Shea (Sunderland(

Newcastle United:

IN: Sylvain Marveaux (free, Rennes), Demba Ba (free, West Ham), Yohan Cabaye (undisc, Lille)

OUT: Kevin Nolan (£4m, West Ham)

Norwich City:

IN: Steve Morison (£2.5m, Millwall), Elliot Bennett (Brighton), James Vaughan (£2.5m, Everton) Bradley Johnson (free, Leeds), Ritchie de Laet (loan, Manchester United), Anthony Pilkington (£1.75m, Huddersfield)

OUT: Matthew Gill (free, Bristol Rovers),

QPR:

IN: Jay Bothroyd (free, Cardiff), Kieron Dyer (free, West Ham)

OUT: Mikele Leigertwood (free, Reading)

Stoke City:

IN: Jonathan Woodgate (free, Spurs)

OUT: Abdoulaye Faye (free, West Ham)

Sunderland:

IN: Keiren Westwood (free, Coventry), Sebastian Larsson (free, Birmingham), Craig Gardner (£5m, Birmingham), Connor Wickham (£8.1m, Ipswich), Ji Dong-Won (Chunnam Dragons), Wes Brown (Manchester United), David Vaughan (free, Blackpool), John O’Shea (undisc, Manchester United)

OUT: Jordan Henderson (£20m, Liverpool), David Healy (free, Rangers)

Swansea City:

IN: Danny Graham (£3.5m, Watford), Steven Caulker (loan, Spurs)

OUT: Dorus de Vries (free, Wolves), Darren Pratley (free, Bolton)

Tottenham Hotspur:

IN: Brad Friedel (Free, Aston Villa)

OUT: Steven Caulker (loan, Swansea), Jonathan Woodgate (released), Jamie O’Hara (£5m, Wolves)

West Brom:

IN: Billy Jones (free, Preston), Gareth McAuley (free, Ipswich)

OUT: Abdoulate Meite (free, Dijon), Scott Carson (undisc, Bursaspor), Ryan Allsop (undisc, Millwall), Gianni Zuiverloon (undisc, Real Mallorca)

Wigan:

IN: Mauro Boselli (loan return), Ali Al Habsi (£4m, Bolton)

OUT: Tom Cleverley (loan return, Manchester United), Steven Caldwell (free, Birmingham)

Wolves:

IN: Dorus De Vries (Free, Swansea), Jamie O’Hara (£5m, Wolves), Roger Johnson (£7m, Birmingham)

OUT: Greg Halford (undisc, Portsmouth)

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Filed Under: Soccer Betting

Paul Chandler Burns Column

July 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Here is the latest betting column courtesy of The Secret Betting Club’s resident pro Paul Chandler Burns.

If we are to take a lesson from a very low key sporting week it is that patience is really has to be one of the key betting virtues.

As punters we all want to win every week and see the bank balance ticking upwards. When there’s nothing doing we want to force the pace and when results don’t fall our way we want to tinker and change things because we believe we must be doing something wrong. Learning from mistakes is important, and something we should never shy away from, but drawing wrong conclusions either from insufficient evidence or from a diet of poor betting fare is a fault we all inherently have.

The key thing to remember about your betting is to remember that if your approach was the right thing to do a week ago, or a month ago, it is probably still the right thing to do now.

And equally,  if there isn’t anything you fancy you need the discipline to keep your dough in your pocket. Profits are hard won and easily handed back after all.

Certainly, the schedulers responsible for this week’s British Open deserve a gold star for positioning there flagship event in a week when pretty much nothing much else is happening. In racing its the lull before the storm that is Glorious Goodwood and the start of the football season still feels some way off, with the English sides are playing their opening round of friendlies.

Value Siding With Consistent Kaymer at 14/1

It’s an odd looking field at Royal St Georges with Darren Clarke landing amongst the leaders on Friday with a 4-under 68 and the American veteran Tom Watson rolling back the years with some more British Open magic after his hole-in-one at the sixth hole brightened up the second round.

However with bad weather forecast for tomorrow morning prior to improvement later in the day it seems unlikely that anyone not already in contention come the end of play on Friday will hold a realistic chance of making up ground on the leaders. As a result, the ultimate winner is likely to already be positioned within the leading pack.

Martin Kaymer at around 14/1 must have a decent chance. He is a consistent performer and as a former major winner, his pedigree suggests he is unlikely to crack under the pressure of the final day.

Watch Out For Richard Hannon’s Horses in the Supersprint

While its eyes front in anticipation of Glorious Goodwood – and the hotly anticipated showdown between this season’s stars Frankel and Canford Cliffs – this weekend offers uncharacteristically meagre fare.

The best of slim pickings arguably comes at Newbury tomorrow and the Supersprint, a race that is typically a Richard Hannon carve up. The Marlborough-based trainer has two in the race. Stable jockey Richard Hughes is on the favourite, Eureka, but slight preference is for Red Act as an each way alternative. Normally a challenge from Richard Fahey’s yard would have to be respected. However, with four runners in this Supersprint, it could be that the Yorkshireman is operating on the ‘throw mud at the wall and hope some sticks’ principle here.

At Market Rasen, Paul Nicholls Classic Swain could be worth an each way interest. However as with all Nicholls’ runners the market is likely to speak to the horse’s chance. Basically you should look to swerve runners from the Nicholls’ yard whenever they show signs of weakness in the market – if they drift they don’t tend to win.

Over in Ireland, Wonder of Wonders is being supported as if defeat is out of the question in the Irish Oaks. It is easy to see why. The Newmarket vibes confirm the impression that this is not a vintage year for British fillies and it is hard to find a solid challenger. If the favourite is still available at evens come race time it could prove to be a strong bet on an otherwise low key weekend.

Ryan Moore To Show His Dietary Fibre?

Another option tonight – confirming the impressions that slim pickings is today’s theme with a wider resonance this week – comes in the form of Ryan Moore’s Newmarket booking on Poppyseed tonight at 5/1. An inspiration for weight watchers everywhere, Moore, the former champion jockey, boasts a stunning ROI of 70% whenever he rides at 8st 7ibs or less.

Riding off 8st 5lbs tonight, the notoriously reticent, Moore is unlikely to be talking up his claims to all and sundry this evening but nonetheless, this could be an occasion where the stats on the jockey’s riding weight do his talking for him.

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Paul Chandler Burns is a regular contributor for Secret Betting Club members

Filed Under: Sports Betting

First Time Blinkers On The Flat

July 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment

First Time Blinkers On The Flat by David Renham

With the flat season gathering pace, I have decided to look at horses that are blinkered for the first time. There are numerous ideas why horses are given blinkers to wear.

These include:

-         To try and get the horse to concentrate as some horses get distracted by the other runners in a race;

-         To help the horse break quickly from the stalls. Blinkers often have this effect when worn for the first time;

-         As a last resort to try and improve a horses’ performance.

What one should realise however, is that generally fitting first time blinkers is a negative rather than a positive. The data for this article is taken from the last 6 complete seasons – flat/all weather racing only. All profits are calculated to £1 level stakes at SP. It should be noted that I have included only runners that are wearing blinkers only (for the first time) – I have excluded runners who were wearing tongue ties also. For the record the combination of blinkered first time + tongue tie produce virtually identical strike rates and returns (from a much smaller sample).

Firstly let us look at the results of all runners wearing blinkers for the first time on the flat over the period of study:

Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
441 6336 7% -£1748.87 -27.6

Essentially therefore these runners win around once in every fourteen starts (roughly) for losses of just under 28 pence in the £. Not a great starting point from a betting perspective. However, let us break these stats down into different categories to see if we can either find better betting propositions, or ‘gilt-edged’ laying opportunities.

Age

The perception is that blinkers improve younger horses best, especially 2yos. Let us look at the results breakdown when split by age:

Age Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
2 85 1197 7.1 -£433.73 -36.2
3 185 2755 6.7 -£928.06 -33.7
4 93 1378 6.8 -£344.38 -25.0
5 46 539 8.5 +£68.41 +12.7
6 19 261 7.3 -£80.13 -30.7
7 5 127 3.9 -£66.00 -52.0
8 or older 8 79 10.1 +£35.00 +44.3

As we can see 2yos actually perform below the ‘norm’. Looking at the ages as a whole, there is no discernable pattern, although much older horses (8yo+) have done relatively well from a very small sample.

Digging deeper into the 2yo stats, I have broken down the data by number of career runs:

Career starts Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
debut 4 53 7.5 -£29.00 -54.7
2nd career start 4 110 3.6 -£46.00 -41.8
3rd career start 4 155 2.6 -£98.50 -63.5
4th career start 23 261 8.8 -£127.41 -48.8
5th career start 17 215 7.9 -£10.50 -4.9
6th career start 11 170 6.5 -£87.81 -51.7
7th or more 22 233 9.4 -£34.50 -14.8

Two things that seem to stand out here are firstly that 2yos that have raced several times (7 or more), react to first time blinkers relatively well; secondly 2yos that are assigned blinkers on their 2nd or 3rd career start do extremely poorly in terms of strike rate. My guess is that there is an over-reaction to a poor debut run and the addition of blinkers actually makes things worse.

Market position

Generally the market is an excellent guide to the chances of each horse. Let us look at first time blinkered horses coupled with their market position:

Market pos Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Favourite 85 334 25.5 -£51.82 -15.5
2nd favourite 78 437 17.9 -£70.06 -16.0
3rd favourite 55 510 10.8 -£154.50 -30.3
4th in betting 47 532 8.8 -£99.50 -18.7
5th in betting 39 567 6.9 -£139.00 -24.5
6th or bigger 43 621 6.9 -£34.00 -5.5
7th or bigger 94 3335 2.8 -£1,200.00 -36.0

At first glance the performance of favourites looks OK. However, when we take ALL flat favourites as a whole, the strike rate is around 30-31% with losses of only 6-7%. Hence, horses that start favourite when blinkered for the first time are not good betting propositions.

Race types

Let us break the data down now by specific race types:

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Amateur races 2 57 3.5 -£43.25 -75.9
Claimers 42 482 8.7 -£7.43 -1.5
Group/Listed 9 194 4.6 -£79.75 -41.1
Handicaps 246 3653 6.7 -£1,010.10 -27.7
Maidens 73 1023 7.1 -£426.17 -41.7
Sellers 34 569 6.0 -£204.38 -35.9

Although the data is limited a combination of first time blinkers and an amateur rider looks one to avoid. Indeed of the 55 losers, only 3 got placed. I decided to look back further just to gather a bigger data set. I looked at first time blinkered runners in amateur contests from 1997 to 2004 – they fared poorly once again with just 3 wins from 104.

Maiden races have seen losses of around 42 pence in the £ which above the base figure of 27.6p. Auction maidens have provided the poorest results for first time blinkered runners with just 12 wins from 279 (SR 4.3%) for a loss of £151.06 (ROI -54.1%). Indeed, 2yo maiden Auction races are even worse with just 3 winners from 160 runners (SR 1.9%) for a hefty loss of £129.50 (ROI -80.9%).

Claiming races have seen close to a break-even situation despite a low strike rate of around 9%. Indeed if you exclude maiden claimers the strike rate rises to 9.3% and profits are made; albeit 9 pence profit for every £ wagered. However, it should be noted that these profit figures are essentially down to a few big priced winners and hence it is not an area where the backer can be confident to make a profit in the future.

Race distance

Let us break the data down now by race distance:

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
5-6f 139 2134 6.5 -£718.29 -33.7
7-8f 160 2270 7.0 -£583.43 -25.7
9-10f 58 876 6.6 -£225.05 -25.7
11-12f 61 694 8.8 -£128.31 -18.5
13f+ 23 362 6.4 -£93.80 -25.9

In general there does not seem to be any pattern here. I had expected longer races to produce slightly poorer results but this is not the case.

Turf v all weather

Surface Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
All weather 203 2480 8.2 -£454.92 -18.3
Turf 238 3856 6.2 -£1293.95 -33.6

Horses wearing blinkers for the first time perform better on the all weather compared with turf. This could be due to the fact all weather racing is less competitive; or generally of lower grade. Whatever the reason, the stats are worth taking note of.

Jockeys

I decided to see if the experience of the jockey made a difference. The table below compares professional jockeys with claiming jockeys:

Jockey Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
professional 374 4914 7.6 -1127.87 -23.0
claiming 67 1422 4.7 -£621.00 -43.7

The figures seem to suggest the less experienced jockeys struggle when horses are blinkered for the first time. Losses close to 44 pence in the £ combined with a strike rate of under 5% means that one should swerve these jockeys under these circumstances.

Trainers

Some trainers have a better understanding of their animals than others so one would expect a real mix of results for first time blinkered runners. I have included all trainers that have saddled at least 30 horses with first time blinkers:

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate% Profit/loss ROI%
Sir M Prescott 11 51 21.6 +£27.40 +53.7
B Smart 5 30 16.7 +£0.50 +1.7
C Cox 6 37 16.2 +£8.90 +24.1
I Semple 5 34 14.7 -£5.63 -16.5
R Charlton 5 35 14.3 -£9.13 -26.1
G Butler 5 36 13.9 +£19.00 +52.8
R Hannon 16 129 12.4 +£0.50 +0.4
M Tregoning 4 33 12.1 +£33.00 +100.0
R Harris 8 68 11.8 +£47.75 +70.2
J Boyle 4 34 11.8 +£1.00 +2.9
T Barron 6 54 11.1 -£12.00 -22.2
M Easterby 9 85 10.6 -£20.75 -24.4
C Brittain 6 57 10.5 -£12.38 -21.7
W Haggas 7 67 10.5 -£13.00 -19.4
J Moore 5 49 10.2 +£12.25 +25.0
M Johnston 12 118 10.2 +£1.58 +1.3
P Cole 9 89 10.1 -£29.25 -32.9
J Dunlop 6 61 9.8 -£11.67 -19.1
K Ryan 14 144 9.7 -£7.38 -5.1
P Grayson 6 64 9.4 -£17.05 -26.6
J Gosden 7 75 9.3 -£17.17 -22.9
B Meehan 15 161 9.3 +£8.08 +5.0
N Littmoden 4 44 9.1 -£17.50 -39.8
J Osborne 4 46 8.7 +£10.00 +21.7
G L Moore 6 72 8.3 -£24.38 -33.9
B Hills 3 36 8.3 +£15.00 +41.7
M Quinlan 3 36 8.3 -£18.50 -51.4
P Evans 4 50 8.0 -£8.50 -17.0
T Easterby 10 131 7.6 -£11.75 -9.0
E Johnson Houghton 2 31 6.5 -£6.00 -19.4
W Muir 4 64 6.3 -£35.75 -55.9
B Ellison 2 32 6.3 -£9.00 -28.1
M Dods 2 32 6.3 -£11.50 -35.9
Mrs A Perrett 4 67 6.0 -£30.00 -44.8
R Fahey 4 71 5.6 -£35.50 -50.0
E Dunlop 2 44 4.6 -£36.00 -81.8
R Beckett 2 50 4.0 -£20.00 -40.0
M Tompkins 2 57 3.5 -£43.50 -76.3
M Jarvis 1 30 3.3 -£25.00 -83.3
I McInnes 1 34 2.9 -£29.50 -86.8
P Blockley 1 35 2.9 -£30.00 -85.7
R Millman 1 37 2.7 -£8.00 -21.6
J Bradley 0 66 0.0 -£66.00 -100.0
A Berry 0 50 0.0 -£50.00 -100.0
J Given 0 41 0.0 -£41.00 -100.0
J Eustace 0 31 0.0 -£31.00 -100.0
J Weymes 0 30 0.0 -£30.00 -100.0

Sir Mark Prescott has excellent figures considering how poor these runners do in general – a better than 1 in 5 strike rate with profits of over 50 pence for every £ wagered. At the other end of the scale, Milton Bradley and Alan Berry have combined to produce 0 winners from 116 runners.

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To conclude, horses blinkered for the first time are essentially poor investments. However, some are much worse than others as this article has hopefully highlighted. If nothing else, I suspect this article may save you from backing certain horses that have a very poor chance of winning. This should help your betting bank balance.

There are obvious opportunities for layers on betting exchanges such as BetFair or Betdaq as well.

About The Author:

Dave Renham contributes horse racing research articles to the Racing And Football Outlook newspaper. He also spent time writing the spotlight section for the Racing Post.

More of his research work may be found online at www.PunterProfits.com and www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Filed Under: Horse Racing

Secret Betting Club Preview

June 8, 2011 By Leave a Comment

If you are interested in making money betting then the revamped Secret Betting Club (SBC) service will be right up your street.

In an exciting development, all SBC members now receive TWO dedicated betting magazines – one for Sports Betting and one for Horse Racing, full of must-read information.

So whatever your betting preference be it Football, Horse Racing, Rugby, Golf, Cricket, Tennis or Formula 1 you name it…its all covered in easy to follow reviews, tables and reports.

With over five years of experience seeking out the good, the bad and the ugly of the betting world, the team at SBC know exactly what makes money (and also what you need to avoid in order not to lose any!). You can also have peace of mind that they are 100% independent and offer a full money back guarantee if not satisfied once joining up!

Its not only that either as with their very active forum full of free tips, systems and strategies, massive discounts on many popular services and access to their full back catalogue thrown in for free…this is an amazing deal for anyone who likes to bet.

Join today by clicking here to gain instant access or read on for further details..


In the next 24 hours, we will be releasing our very latest Horse Racing betting magazine, which is an absolute must-read for those of you keen to find out the latest on what makes money betting.

Just look at what we have lined up for you…

  • Our exclusive interview with the best racing tipster from the past 7 years (consistently makes a 30% edge). He reveals all about his methods and what makes him so good.
  • The first ever review of the tipster who has made £3,333 at £10 stakes since January 2010 and £1,350 in the last 3 months alone. Find out who it is, their knack for picking out big winners and why we rate them so highly.
  • An update on the fantastic low-risk racing trading strategy and how you can apply it to your own betting. Our trading expert has been showcasing this on our members forum for all to follow and from the first 23 trades is £237 up already.
  • The SBC guide to how to choose a tipster and our step-by-step guide to avoid the scams and get the right one for you. Never get suckered in again!
  • Our full and frank review of Steve Lewis Hamilton, find out if this well known tipster is faring.
  • Plus much, much more besides including all the latest stats, reviews and updates on the best racing tipsters, plus all the free strategies and systems for you to download or follow on our members forum.

Join today via www.secretbettingclub.com to gain instant access.

Two Issues For The Price of One!
At the beginning of May, we took the took the decision to relaunch our SBC Monthly magazine, in response to subscriber demand.

What we’ve come up with is TWO NEW EDITIONS with a natural split in our traditional content and the results are SBC SPORTS BETTING and SBC HORSE RACING

The good news is that despite now producing TWO issues each month, ALL our monthly content is still covered by the ONE Secret Betting Club membership.

You get both monthly magazines, access to our friendly, authoritative forum, article archive and back issues for a mere £69 per year. That’s the equivalent of just £1.32 per week – significantly less than the cost of a weekend broadsheet or a Racing Post. But hurry, this introductory price won’t last forever and new subscriptions will be processed on a strictly first come first served basis.

There are also many other benefits to being an SBC member such as…

  • Access to the many different horse racing and sports betting free strategies, systems and tips posted on our members forum.
  • Access to all the free niche betting tips and strategies posted on our members forum from a variety of betting experts including specialist advice on Cycling, Formula 1, Aussie Rules and Horse Racing.
  • Exclusive savings, discounts and priority deals on many different tipsters and betting products. The savings you’ll make through our SBC Discount Club could well be more than the cost of joining us here at the Secret Betting Club itself!

So if all of this appeals to you why not get started right away and gain instant access by clicking here.

And you can join now safe in the knowledge we offer a full no-quibble money back guarantee if you’re not satisfied – you have everything to gain, and nothing to lose!

Limited Time Deal So Act Now

The £69 a year price is a limited deal though as the cost of a Secret Betting Club membership will be rising soon, so make sure you get in before it does. We simply can’t continue to offer our fantastic service at such low prices forever!

You can also join with confidence as we offer a full 12 month money back guarantee if at any time you are not satisfied with our service. No strings attached so if you’re not 100% pleased with what we do for whatever reason, we will refund you in full.

Seriously, no small print and no hidden conditions. We passionately believe in only providing a service that you find useful.

Our members feel the same, check out what one long-term subscriber had to say recently:


“I’d like to take this opportunity to thank you and Dan for the tremendous service you provide with SBC. After 3 1/2 years of semi-professional gambling, think I’ve finally got the portfolio, experience and general set-up I’ve been striving for. SBC has played a big part in this with service reviews, thought-provoking articles and facilitating access to an active peer group.”

To finally make your betting pay, visit: http://www.secretbettingclub.com

Best Regards,

The Secret Betting Club Team – Dan Jones, Mike Bishop & Greg Gordon

Filed Under: Horse Racing

Big Mikes European Final Trade

May 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Big Mikes European Final Trade

Big Mike is an ex accountant who likes to use his skill at numbers
to win a few quid from our friends the bookmakers.

He has agreed to let us post up here his thoughts on how best to play some of the bookmaker offers regarding the Champions League Final

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Apologies but it appears there were a few errors in the content from Big Mike so we have removed it from this page rather than maintain duff info.

Filed Under: Soccer Betting

The Insider’s Guide to Successful Football Betting

February 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Until recently, John was a senior football odds compiler working for a major high street bookmaker. Having left his position to follow his dream of betting on football and racing full-time, John continues to work in the betting industry on a consultancy basis. As a long-time friend of www.progambler.co.uk, John believes that what separates the organised professional bettor from the doughty amateur is a bit of inside knowledge and a lot of discipline and application.

Gambling is a mugs game, you can’t beat the bookies, right? Wrong. There is good money to be made from football betting if you stick to some simple basic rules.

Rule 1, and this is a golden rule, you must shop around for the best value. Open accounts with as many online bookmakers as possible, they nearly all offer free bets to entice you to open accounts with them.

You should have no loyalty to any bookmaker and the sole reason you should be placing a bet with one is because you are getting the best price. People who just use the nearest high street shop haven’t got a chance. Bookmakers have a profit margin of around 10% for most football matches but because different bookmakers offer different prices it is still possible to swing the odds in your favour.

Rule 2, work out a staking plan. Once you have identified a value bet the next question is “how much should I bet?”. The answer to this question is determined firstly, by how confident you are about the bet, and secondly, by how much value you think you are getting. For example, if you toss a coin in the air you have a 50% chance it will be heads and a 50% chance it will be tales. The correct price for each outcome should therefore be evens. But what if somebody offered you 3/1 that the coin would land on heads, you are obviously being offered huge value and if you repeated this bet ten times you would have to be incredibly unlucky not to be in profit at the end.

The answer to the question “how much should I bet?”, in this scenario is “as much as you can afford to lose”. Whatever staking plan you have worked out this would obviously be a maximum bet scenario, you could still lose but you have secured huge value and if you consistently bet when the odds are in your favour you theoretically will make money in the long run.

Rule 3, Never, EVER, chase. We’ve all been there, you’ve had a terrible day and lost a lot of money, the live Spanish game is about to come on and it’s the last game of the day. “Time to get my money back”, you say to yourself and you have a silly bet on Real Madrid at terrible odds. To make things even worse Madrid concede a last minute goal to level the game. They then go and miss a penalty deep in injury time, what a disaster! To make money betting on football it is crucial that you have discipline. Just because a game is on TV doesn’t mean you have to bet on it. If you didn’t identify a value bet in the game at the start of the day then don’t bet on it. We all have bad days and there will be plenty of good value opportunities to get your money back in the next set of fixtures.

You must be selective with your bets.

Rule 4, stick to singles or doubles. It is hard enough predicting the outcome of one match let alone five.

Bookmakers love to promote accumulator bets because they know the more selections you choose the less likely you are to win. No matter how many teams you pick there will always be one result that lets you down. Many people are attracted to these bets by the possibilities of winning a lot of money from relatively small stakes. You will find that if you increase your stakes a little and stick to singles and doubles your profits will increase long term.

Rule 5, pay close attention to team news. An injury to a key striker or a suspended captain can sometimes greatly swing the odds in your favour. As a general rule the higher the level of football the less affect team news will have as the top clubs have large squads full of quality players. The lower league teams however, operate with much smaller squads and can have their chances of winning badly affected by key players being injured or suspended. Be warned however, team news can be misleading. Some clubs actively give out false information in order to gain an advantage over their opponents so it is dangerous to base your bet on team news alone.

Rule 6, choose which markets you bet on carefully. The best markets to bet on are generally the match odds and some of the goals markets. Halftime/fulltime, correct score, first goalscorer and other similar markets have a higher profit margin built in by bookmakers and therefore generally offer poor value. This is not always the case though and occasionally you will find the odd juicy price in these markets.

For example, injuries may result in a midfield player starting up front making him much better value to be first goalscorer. Asian Handicaps are another market which you should make yourself familiar with. The bookmakers profit margin on these markets is a lot lower and so straight away you have more chance of finding value. On BetFair you only pay 1% commission on these markets whereas you pay 5% on most other football markets.

Rule 7, bend the rules in your favour. There are a number of things you can do to achieve this. Firstly make sure you pick up a coupon from your local shops at the start of the week. The prices printed on these coupons are compiled up to a week ahead of the game and are often cut online or on the phone. However the big two on the high street will hold the prices printed on these coupons so you can often find a bigger price on a shop coupon than you will be able to get online or even with the exchanges. If there is a big move for a certain game then they might impose restrictions of between £50-200 per customer, but you should still be able to get on. Likewise, when there is a move online and the match odds are cut you will sometimes find that a bookmaker has forgotten to cut the “draw no bet” or maybe the “halftime/fulltime” price.

It is also worth keeping an eye on long term markets when games are being played as you wouldn’t believe how sloppy some bookmakers can be at suspending markets. This can be especially useful near the end of the season when it is clearer which teams might win the league or be relegated. Bookmakers cannot claim palpable error in these cases either so your bet will be allowed to stand.

Rule 8, keep records of all your bets. It is important to do this so that you know exactly how much money you are making or losing. It will help you decide on your staking plan and make it clear that you should stop if you aren’t making money in the long run.

These rules should help you to tip the odds in your favour. It is possible to make money from betting on football but you will need to invest time and effort.

You will go through good periods and bad, last minute goals will go for and against you but in the long run you can prosper.

Filed Under: Soccer Betting

Know Your All Weather Race Types

February 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Know Your All Weather Race Types by David Renham

This is the second article in a series of three all weather articles – the first being on southwell Sires In this piece I am going to look at specific race types in attempt to help you, the reader, gain that important edge over “the crowd”. Many punters are put off the all weather due to the general standard of racing – low grade handicaps, claimers and sellers are regular events on the all weather circuit, but there are plenty of positive and negative angles that once appreciated can improve your chances of making a profit. The focus of this article is these lower grade contests.

The data for this article is taken from last six years; ROI stands for return on investment; SR stands for strike rate and LTO stands for last time out. Unless otherwise stated, all profit and losses are quoted to industry starting price.


Claiming races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just under 74% of the winners. Favourites have an especially good record in all weather claimers scoring 35.6% of the time. Indeed backing all favourites “blind” would have yielded very small losses of 4%. Indeed backing all favourites since the inception of BetFair SP would have seen you break even and that is taking commission into account. Longer priced horses have a poor record and runners priced 16/1 or bigger show significant losses. Their record reads 73 wins from 3570 qualifiers (SR 2%) showing losses of £1473.00 to (ROI -41.3%). At the completely rank outsider stage – horses priced 80/1 or bigger have produced 425 consecutive losers with just 8 of them managing a place.

Last time out – horses that won LTO go on to win again just over 25% of the time in claimers, and backing all such runners would have produced losses of around 11%. Horses that won on the all weather LTO are much better betting propositions that horses that won on the turf LTO – strike rates of 26% against 15% confirm this. Indeed, regardless of LTO position, it is an advantage to have raced on the all weather LTO rather than on the turf LTO.

Age – interestingly older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 8.7%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 14.4%.

Sex of horse – In claimers colts, geldings and horses are 1.62 times more likely to win than fillies and mares.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses that are racing for a new stable in all weather claiming races score around 9% of the time, but backing all runners would have lost you about 46% (46p for every £1 wagered);

2. Maiden runners have a poor record in claimers scoring just 6% of the time and losing around 37%;

3. Horses that have recorded 2 or more course successes have a decent strike rate of 17% and backing all runners would have yielded very small losses of 2.2%;

4. Horses having their first ever racecourse outing are worth avoiding with only 7 wins from 229 qualifiers (SR 3.1%). Backing all debutants would have produced significant losses of £149.50 (ROI -65.3%);

5. Horses that raced in a claiming race last time have a strike rate of 15%; compare this to horses that raced in a selling race last time whose strike rate is under 8%;

6. The following trainers secured a strike rate of 20% or better during the 6-year study (from at least 60 runners) – Tom Dascombe, Dandy Nicholls, Kevin Ryan, Jim Boyle, Jack Pearce, Gary Moore.

 

Selling races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided 71.7% of the winners with favourites winning a third of all races. Backing all selling favourites would have yielded a loss of 6.8%. There are two favourite stats worth noting; firstly horses priced 8/11 or shorter have scored over 70% of the time and backing them all would have produced a profit of 10%; secondly favourites returning to the track less than 10 days since their last run have provided 89 winners from 227 (SR 39.2%) for a profit of £19.55 (ROI +8.6%). Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have an extremely poor record – just 20 wins from 1887 qualifiers (SR 1.1%) showing huge losses of £1164.00 to (ROI -61.7%). Horses priced 50/1 or bigger have produced just 3 winners from 890 runners for losses of over 81%.

Last time out – horses that won LTO are not good propositions in selling races. They win roughly 1 time in 5 but backing all runners would have yielded losses of around 19%. One area worth noting is that horses that ran LTO in 3yo or all age maidens have a dreadful strike rate – they have provided just 14 winners from 317 qualifiers (SR 4.4%).

Age – as with claiming races, older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. However, the bias is less pronounced. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 9%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 12.2%.

Sex of horse – in sellers once again colts, geldings and horses have an edge over fillies and mares. However, it is not quite as clear cut as it was in claimers with the male to female success ratio in sellers standing at 1.4.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses upped in class have won just 4.5% of the time; horses racing in the same class as LTO have won 10.3% of the time; horses dropping in class have won 11.4% of the time;

2. Trainers Peter Evans, Jim Boyle, Gary Moore and George Baker are trainers who have good records in selling races on the all weather;

3. Horses carrying high weights in sellers have a better strike rate than those carrying low weights. Horses carrying 9st or more have a strike rate of 12.6%; horses carrying under 9st have a strike rate of 8.8%;

4. For “in running” punters it should be noted that the early leader of a 5f seller goes on to win over 25% of the time.

 

Handicap races (class 6 or lower)

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just over 54% of the winners. Favourites win around 1 race in 4 (26% to be precise) for losses of under 7%. The most successful favourites in handicaps have been in 2yo nurseries – a strike rate of 30.4% and profits of 6%. 3yo only handicaps see favourites perform solidly thanks to a strike rate of 30.9% with losses amounting to less than 2%. Lingfield has been most successful track for low grade handicap favourites producing a break even situation to SP.

Last time out – LTO winners score 16.6% of the time, with losses standing at 19%. However, if the LTO winners return to the track within 7 days their strike rate increases to 24%. These quick returns score 37% of the time and reach a break even situation if they start favourite. However, beware of LTO winners that start 10/1 or bigger in the betting – they have won just 4.4% of the time with steep losses of 38%.

Horses that ran in handicaps LTO are better betting propositions that horses that ran in non handicaps LTO – strike rates of 9% against 6.5% confirm this. The returns for each category though do not totally mirror the strike rates with losses of 21% for runners that ran in handicaps LTO, compared with losses of 25% for runners who ran LTO in non handicaps.

Sex of horse – the male to female success ratio is 1.3 in low grade handicaps open to both sexes. Percentage losses for male runners stand at only 17% compared with 28% for females. It is also should be noted that female runners have really struggled at Lingfield – their strike rate at the Surrey track is just 5.6% and losses are over 40%. Male runners have a definite advantage over female runners in these handicaps.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Female runners returning to the track after a break of 57 or more days have a poor record – just 92 wins from 1967 runners (SR 4.7%) for a loss of £788.17 (ROI -40.1%);

2. Colts when starting favourites have been fairly rare (around 40 per year). However, of the 225 qualifiers over the past 6 seasons, 86 have won (SR 38.2%) for a profit of £50.05 (ROI +22.2%);

3. Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have won 2.1% of the time for losses to SP of 25%. However, since BetFair Starting Price was introduced in 2008 you could have made a profit by backing them all at BSP. Despite having only 70 winners from 3717 runners, you would have made a profit of £730.88 (ROI +19.7%).

I hope this article has shown you that the all weather offers betting opportunities in all race types – you just need to do some digging!

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Dave Renham is a leading researcher into uk horse racing.

His site at www.PunterProfits.com contains a lot more of his research work. Some is free and some is member only. It’s a good site for racing realists who believe that knowing your stats is a likely root to success.

The private boards there contain many interesting and highly past profitable threads maintained by members of punterprofits who obvioulsy have learnt a trick or two from all Dave’s horse racing research teachings.


Filed Under: Horse Racing

Fotball Bet Types Explained

February 24, 2011 By Leave a Comment

You can bet on just about anything happening in
football these days. Goals, corners, bookings, correct
score, first scorer, players to score hat tricks, to
be subbed, to be playing for a different club in six
months time…..etc However, many of these markets
have large profit margins built in by bookmakers
making it extremely difficult to make money from them.
In this article, I will try and explain some of the
main ones we will be using over the course of the
season. Many of you will be fully aware of how these
markets work, but I have had plenty of e-mails over
the course of the season asking me to explain how
Asian handicaps work, what draw no bet means, etc.
Even if you do think you know your stuff, the article
is probably worth a read as there is bound to be
something that you were not previously aware of.

MATCH ODDS:

The most straight forward market and the one I will
generally recommend most bets from. You simply select
“Home win”, “Draw”, or “Away win”. When filling out a
coupon in a betting shop you would mark “1″ for a home
win, “2″ for a away win and “x” for a draw. Most major
bookmakers have a profit margin of between 5-12% built
in. The equivalent market on BetFair is available with
no profit margin but you will have to pay between 2-5%
commission on your winnings.

GOALS:

There are several different markets relating to goals
that we will be interested in over the course of the
season. The main goals market we will be using will be
Over/Under 2.5 goals. This sometimes confuses people
who are new to football betting as there is obviously
no such thing as half a goal. Basically, if you back
over, then you need three goals to win, if you back
under, then you want no more than two goals. The
profit margin on these bets, as well as most other
markets with just two outcomes, is usually between
6-8%. Some bookmakers, as well as BetFair, offer
over/under 1.5 goals and over/under 3.5 goals and
these markets work exactly the same way. “Total
goals”, is another goals market which I sometimes bet
on. Usually there will be three choices, 0-1, 2-3 and
4 or more. These are pretty self explanatory. This
market can sometimes throw up value if the bookmaker
offering the market goes too high or low on his goals
quote. For example, in La Liga last year, some
bookmakers were not factoring in how many goals
Sevilla and Atletico Madrid were scoring in home
games. This resulted in “4 or more” offering value on
several occasions.

CORRECT SCORE:

Again, pretty self explanatory. It is important to
remember that this is a 90 minutes market only. If you
back a team to win 1-0 in a cup game and it’s 0-0
after 90 minutes then your bet has lost, even if they
go on to win 1-0 in extra time. This is a market I
generally avoid as the bookies enjoy a hefty profit
margin. However, occasionally, correct score markets
do throw up value. Last year for example, the 0-0 draw
was too big in France with PaddyPower for a period and
therefore represented value. Unfortunately this period
also coincided with the number of goals in French
games suddenly spiking, and we were unable to take
advantage. Many bookmakers also offer scorecast
markets, in which you have to pick out the correct
score and the first goalscorer. This is very difficult
to do and consequently large prices are often
available. However, the prices are nowhere near large
enough and it is a terrible bet from a value point of
view.

HALF TIME RESULT – HALF TIME/FULL TIME:

The Half time result is a market I very rarely get
involved in. It’s not that it represents particularly
bad value, it’s just that it is quite tricky to
predict. Trends do emerge from time to time that might
make a bet worthwhile, for example, a team that
doesn’t concede or score many goals might be drawing a
lot of games at half time. If bookies aren’t manually
compiling this market, as many don’t (instead
preferring to use computer programs) then a small bit
of value might emerge.

Half time/Full time is another market I very rarely
bet on. The odds are heavily in the bookies favour and
prices have to be quite a way out of line to become
value. The following is an example of William Hills
halftime/fulltime prices from Peterborough’s pre
season friendly against West Ham:

Peterborough/Peterborough            15/2 (12%)
Peterborough/Draw                    14/1 (7%)
Peterborough/West Ham                20/1 (5%)
Draw/Peterborough                    9/1  (10%)
Draw/Draw                            9/2  (18%)
Draw/West Ham                        10/3 (23%)
West Ham/Peterborough                28/1 (3%)
West Ham/Draw                        14/1 (7%)
West Ham/West Ham                    8/5  (38%)

Total                                    (123%)

As you can see, Hills have built in a 23% profit
margin to this market making it very poor value. There
are occasions when value arises, such as two seasons
ago when a number of Chelsea home games were resulting
in Draw/Chelsea results. Another example of when value
arises is when there is a big move for a team in the
match odds market. Sometimes bookies can be slow to
cut their half time/full time price for a team making
it slight value.

FIRST/ANYTIME GOALSCORER:

Two quite different markets in terms of value. First
goalscorer is generally one best avoided as the margin
is again very big. Forwards are nearly always
artificially short and it is difficult enough
predicting which player will score in a game let alone
who will score first. The introduction of each way
betting with first goalscorers by several bookmakers
in the last couple of years has improved things to
some extent. With each way terms covering the first
three scorers it is fairly similar to an anytime
goalscorer bet. With Anytime scorer bets there often
seems to be value with certain firms, especially
William Hills. It is a relatively new bet and Hills do
not seem to be getting their prices right. I suspect
they are using a computer program and a glance at
bestbetting.com usually shows them to be best price by
quite a way on most players. Anytime scorer bets
should only be considered when there is a high goals
quote as obviously, the more goals there are in a game
the more chance your player has of scoring. One note
of caution however, different firms have different
rules when it comes to anytime goalscorer markets. The
majority class a player as a runner if he takes part
in any part of the game and therefore it is very
important that your player is starting. If he comes on
for the last five minutes and fails to score then your
bet will stand and have very little chance of winning.
William Hills rules on the other hand, state that if a
player does not start the game then he is a non runner
and you get your money back.

TO WIN TO NIL:

This is a variation on the correct score market and
only a few bookmakers tend to offer it. Basically, you
are backing a team to win by any score to nil. It is
best used when you want to back a short priced team
who are solid defensively, or maybe playing a team who
don’t score many goals or who have injury problems up
front. Chelsea are a good example from last year, they
were solid defensively and ended up winning eighteen
league matches “to nil”. This is another market that
is often computer generated and value prices do
occasionally appear.

DRAW NO BET:

Does exactly what it says on the tin. You are backing
a team and taking away the risk of a draw. If the game
finishes level then you simply get your money back.
This market is best used when you fancy a side to win
but they tend to draw a lot of games, or maybe you are
betting in a league where there are a lot of draws
such as the French league. You are sacrificing the
bigger price you would get backing the team to win in
the match odds, for the insurance of getting your
money back in the event of a draw. Exactly the same
bet is available on the Asian handicaps.

ASIAN HANDICAP:

A market that causes a great deal of confusion but
often offers very good value. It got the name “Asian
handicap” because it is the preferred form of betting
in the far east. Profit margins are far lower than
most other markets, often just a couple of percent. I
will try to explain how they work as simply as I can.
Don’t worry if you don’t understand it straight away,
many people don’t, take your time and read over what I
have written a couple of times. You can play around
with it on BetFair too, just pick a game, click on
Asian handicaps and click the “back” box. A bet slip
will appear on the right hand side explaining what you
win or lose from each outcome.

The simplest type of Asian handicap is exactly the
same bet as draw no bet. Both teams will appear with a
+0 next to them, the bet is void in the event of a
draw.

Another type of Asian handicap is to back a team +1 or
-1. You might back an outsider +1 or back a strong
favourite -1. Backing a strong favourite -1 is
basically backing them to win by more than one goal.
If they win by exactly one goal then you lose nothing
and your stake is returned as the one goal margin they
have won by is cancelled out by the -1 handicap. If
they win by two or more then your bet is a winner.

A slightly more complicated Asian handicap is backing
a team to win +1.5 or -1.5. This should be thought of
in exactly the same way as over/under 2.5 goals. If
the team you are backing -1.5 wins by two goals then
your bet is a winner, if they win by only one goal
then your bet is a loser. It is the same as backing a
team -1 only you have no insurance if the team wins by
one goal. Remember if you back a team -1 and they win
by one, then you get your money back, but if you back
them -1.5 and they win by one then the bet is a loser.

The most complicated Asian handicap is when the
previous two bets are combined and you are given the
option of backing a team -1 & -1.5. Although it looks
very complicated it is actually quite simple. All you
have to do to understand it is split the bet in two.
Half of your bet is for “team A” to win -1 and the
other half of your stake is for “team A” to win -1.5.
If we back team A at evens to win -1 & -1.5 for a £100
stake, then the following will happen:

Team A wins by 2 goals or more = win £100 (Both parts
of the bet have won)

Team A wins by 1 goal = lose £50 (you get your money
back for the first part of the bet but lose £50 on the
second part)

Team A does not win = lose £100 (both parts of your
bet have lost)

Asian handicaps are most useful if you want to back a
short priced favourite to win by a big margin or for
an outsider to only lose by a small margin or to draw.
For example, if you back a team +1 then you have both
the draw and them winning as positive results.

To conclude, the above bet types are the main ones you
should be familiar with. The vast majority of bets
that I recommend will be in the match odds or from one
of the goals markets. There are many other weird and
wonderful markets out there but they are generally
poor value and best avoided. If you would like me to
clarify anything I have written above then please do
not hesitate to contact me

Best Wishes

The Oracle

——————————————–

The Oracle works as an odds compiler for a major uk bookmaker.

He retired from his moonlighting job as a tipster to free up more time for his family. You can read more sage advice from him however in the free soccer betting course available at www.football-bets.co.uk

Filed Under: Soccer Betting

Best Price – The Oracle’s Guide To Beating The Bookies

February 24, 2011 By Leave a Comment

I’ve had a couple of e-mails from members asking for advice on how to get around bookies limits and how to make sure they are getting the best prices in general. Rather than send individual responses I thought I’d write an article on the subject and send it out to everyone. I hope it proves useful.

In order to maximise your long term profits, it is crucial that you have numerous accounts with different bookmakers and always make sure you are taking the best price. You should have accounts with Ladbrokes, Hills, PaddyPower, StanJames, SkyBet, BlueSquare, B365, BetFred, BoyleSports, sportingbet, Bet Direct, Coral, ToteSport and Victor Chandler as these will be the companies whose prices I recommend. CentreBet are an Australian based firm who have grown quite a bit over the last few years and I also recommend you open an account with them.

All of the above are safe and secure to bet with and all offer various forms of free bets when you first open an account. Most bookmakers bet to around 110% on the match odds of many European leagues. This means that they have worked out the percentage chances of each event occurring in any particular game and added on a 10% profit margin. This makes it very difficult to make profit from betting with just one bookmaker as even if they get their prices wrong, they have to be more than 10% wrong to give you a fair chance of beating them. Those who just use their local high street shop have virtually no chance of long term success.

However, if you have ten accounts with ten different bookmakers, the differences in opinions between the bookmakers on some games can erode the margin you are facing down to practically nothing. When there is a big move for something and certain bookmakers are slow to react the odds can then swing in the punters favour and you can lock in a profit by backing all three outcomes with different bookies. We’ll use a hypothetical fixture between Aston Villa and Everton as an example with the following bookmakers offering the following prices:

SkyBet

Villa 11/10 (48%) Draw 11/5 (31%) Everton 11/5 (31%)

Ladbrokes

Villa 10/11 (52%) Draw11/5 (31%) Everton 11/4 (27%)

BetFred

Villa 4/5 (56%)   Draw 12/5 (29%) Everton 3/1 (25%)

Each bookmaker is betting to 110% but if you take the best prices for each outcome from across the three bookmakers you get:

Villa   11/10 (48%) with SkyBet
Draw  12/5  (29%) with BetFred
Everton 3/1 (25%) with BetFred

these three prices only add up to 102% rather than 110% so straight away by shopping around for the best price you have eroded 8% of the margin. We will continue to use this hypothetical fixture as an example and introduce a scenario where Tim Cahill, Phil Neville, Lee Carsley and Andrew Johnson pick up a virus for Everton the day before the game and are unable to play. BetFred and Ladbrokes pick up on this information and both firms cut their prices to:

Villa     4/6 (60%)
Draw   13/5 (28%)
Everton 7/2 (22%)

SkyBet however, are slow to pick up on this information and do not cut their price until one hour later. Therefore, the best prices available for that hour are:

Villa 11/10 (48%) SkyBet
Draw  13/5  (28%) BetFred and Ladbrokes
Everton 7/2 (22%) BetFred and Ladbrokes

These prices add up to 98% and present punters with an opportunity to lock in a 2% profit regardless of the result by taking the three best prices available.

BetFair is another account EVERY serious gambler should have. They are a betting exchange who allow you to bet against other punters by backing or laying any outcome. Because they are not a bookmaker there is no built in profit margin and they make their money by taking 2-5% of your winnings depending on how many loyalty points you build up with them. The more money you put through the site the less commission you pay. They advertise that on average their prices are 20% better than you can get with bookmakers and therefore it is well worth the relatively small commission charge. This is true to an extent but slightly misleading.

Generally BetFair will be the best price but when it comes to backing a favourite the difference between BetFair and the bookies is rarely 20%. It is generally a big enough difference to make it worthwhile having the bet with BetFair rather than the bookie though. Outsiders on the other hand are often a much bigger price on BetFair than they are with the bookies. You should always check the price on BetFair when I make a recommendation as it may be bigger than the recommended bookmaker price.

Another useful tool for gamblers is shop coupons. These are often printed days in advance of a fixture and the prices will still be available in a shop even though they have been cut online. Some bookmakers are very sly however and will accept your bet on the coupon and then pay you at the new lower price. They are supposed to tell you if a price is no longer available yet the poorly paid and unmotivated staff will often not bother until it comes to paying out. Therefore I only recommend Ladbrokes and Hills shop coupons as if you get the bet on they will pay you at the coupon price.

Messages are sometimes sent to shops telling staff that limits have been imposed on certain teams. Using the Villa v Everton game from before as an example, Ladbrokes might send a message to shop staff that customers can only have a maximum of £100 on Villa at the coupon price of 10/11 and anything over £100 will have to be at 4/6. If you want £200 on Villa then simply say you only want £100 and then walk down the road to the next Ladbrokes shop and put the second £100 on there. Obviously this is much more difficult if you live in rural areas. If there is any sort of dispute with the shop just phone up customer services and complain. I have a friend who used to work for Ladbrokes customer services a few years ago and apparently they have a cupboard full of free bet vouchers to give out to anyone who has a legitimate complaint. They are very keen to keep the customer happy so its always worth giving them a ring.

Anyone who has had any success with their betting will know that eventually bookies start to get upset when you start winning on a regular basis. Bookies call these people “unprofitable customers” and they will restrict how much money you can get on by factoring your account down. Going back to the Villa v Everton game again, SkyBets maximum bet per customer on the internet might be set at £1000. An “unprofitable customer” might be factored to half of what a regular customer can get on and might only be allowed £500. Depending on how unprofitable you are you might be restricted to a tenth or even less and at this stage some accounts become literally unusable.

There’s more than one way to skin a cat though and with most bookmakers you can simply open a new account with a different credit/debit card in your own name and carry on regardless. Some might realise its the same account quite quickly and a few will do IP address checks to see where you are placing the bet from and link you to other accounts at that IP address. Your account will last longer if you change your username too as some traders might remember the old one. It’s best to set your username to something unremarkable too, such as a set of numbers or maybe a foreign name as it is less likely to stick in a traders memory. If your username is “bookiebasher72″ or something along those lines, then traders are much more likely to remember you having a bet on that dodgy non league game last week and decide to restrict your account. Another way around bookies limits is opening a “shadow” account in a partner/family members name as this will be very difficult to link to your other account unless they run an IP address check. Obviously get the permission of your partner/family member first :)

If you do bet in reasonably large amounts the likelihood is that you will soon start to have difficulties with some bookmakers if you follow my selections. If you follow the instructions above though you should be able to sidestep these problems and continue fleecing the bookies. I would recommend using BetFair as much as possible as they will not stop you getting on after a few big winners. If the bookmakers price is only going to pay a couple of quid more than BetFair after commission then it might be worth taking the marginal drop in profit, especially if it means protecting an account that might be on borrowed time. Use shop coupons where you can and use different shops where possible as this will prevent them from monitoring your business.

Best Wishes

The Oracle

———————————————————

The Oracle works as an odds compiler for a major uk bookmaker.

He retired from his moonlighting job as a tipster to free up more time for his family. You can read more sage advice from him however in the free soccer betting course available at www.football-bets.co.uk

Filed Under: Soccer Betting

How To Maintain And Protect Your Bookmaker Accounts

February 23, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Our good friends at The Secret Betting Club have allowed us to reproduce this excellent article on extending the life of your betting accounts. You can find out more about SBC’s excellent work in the field of tipster research at secretbettingclub.com

Secret Betting Club
The good, the bad and the ugly of the tipster world…revealed!



Betting Master Class:
Know your enemy: How to maintain & protect your bookmaker accounts.
Summary of findings
Why BetFair will never replace bookmakers.
The worst offenders.
How bookmakers work.
How to decrease the chance of being restricted.
What alternatives do you have if you are restricted?

Bookmakers

When BetFair first launched, they ran some PR shots of a bookmaker in a coffin. BetFair was going to be the death of traditional bookmakers apparently. However, over a
decade on and the old bookmakers are still here. BetFair has been a welcome addition
to the party, but they have become a very useful alternative for most people rather
than the only place you’ll ever need for your bets.
So love them or hate them, bookmakers are here to stay. On paper, there are a large
number of bookmakers across the internet, allowing the diligent gambler to shop
around for the best prices just like you would do your car insurance.
Unfortunately, as many SBC members will know, finding the best prices is only half the
battle. Actually getting on to decent stakes, or catching the prices before they move
can be a real challenge sometimes.
With this in mind, we thought it was about time we put together a guide to using
bookmakers, so that complete beginners can start off on the right foot and keep their
accounts useful for longer. Most SBC members will already be active gamblers so we
also aim to provide some hints and tips on keeping existing accounts open, and the
alternatives you have available to you if you are already experiencing restrictions.
As the majority of our members are UK based, this article is aimed at the options
available to UK gamblers. However, we do know from a recent survey that we have a
growing international readership with members from the likes of Denmark, Sweden,
Germany and Australia. If you are reading this from abroad, please double check the
terms and conditions for betting from your own country as they may be different than
in the UK.

Why bookmakers are still useful

So why do we bother with bookmakers any more now that we have BetFair? Isn’t BetFair
meant to offer 20% better odds?
BetFair is still pulling in the punters with that line, but in fact it’s only partially true.
BetFair does offer bigger odds, but only really when it comes to outsiders.
If you look at any bet around the 3.0 level or below, you often find that BetFair’s odds
are either the same as the standout bookmakers or may even be worse once you taken
commission into account.

For example for the recent Celtic vs Arsenal game, the BetFair price on the draw was
5.4, but this is just 5.18 after paying commission at 5%. Pinnacle Sports were paying
5.3 which was far superior once commission is taken into account. Of course, not
everyone pays the full 5%, but even if you were down to 3% commission, Pinnacle’s
price was still superior.

The second reason that bookmakers remain useful is the attractive terms offered by Each Way betting.

For those not aware, an Each Way bet is actually two separate bets. Let’s say you
wanted to bet £5 Each Way at 10/1. You would be placing one win only bet for £5 and
another £5 on the selection to place. This usually means that you are betting it to
come 1st with one bet or 1st, 2nd or 3rd with the place bet. The selection is more likely
to place then win, so the place odds are lower than the win odds. With the place part
of the Each Way bet, the place odds are fixed at either ¼ or 1/5 the win odds.
Place terms depend on the event. In horse racing, 16 runner handicap races pay out if
the horse finishes in position 1,2,3 or 4. The place odds in this case are 1 quarter the
win odds of 10/1, which would be 5/2 (3.50). Other races pay out 1,2 or 3 places at
just one fifth the odds.

In golf you can get some very generous place terms, especially in the major events with
some bookmakers pushing the boat out and paying 1,2,3,4,5 or 6th for the place terms.
BetFair by contrast offers separate place and win markets.

What you often find, especially with big prices, is that the win odds will be over
anything available at a bookmaker, but the place odds will be much worse than the
terms you can get from Each Way betting.

A recent Betting Zone Golf tip illustrates this.
The bet was as follows:
1pt e.w. Dustin Johnson at 90/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)..
Our price – 90/1 widely available
Also – 120.0 to win and 19.0 to place on BetFair

On an Each Way bet, the bookmaker is paying 90/1 (91.0) on the win and 23.5 for
Johnson to come in the top 5 as the place part of the bet.

On BetFair, you were getting 120 on the win which is still miles better than the
bookmakers even accounting for commission. However, a top 5 finish has odds of just
19.0, which once you take into account commission is low as 18.10.

This happens because shrewd BetFair punters know that the bookies are hindered by
their place terms. They are being overly generous paying ¼ odds. However to get those
place odds you have to take their win odds which are stingy in comparison to BetFair.

This puts the bookmaker in a vulnerable position on the place side potentially.

To summarise, the bookmakers are offering you excellent terms with some of their
Each Way bets, especially as the place outcome is more likely to happen than the win.
This is also one of the things that bookmakers are hot on when it comes to restrictions
which we’ll come to later.

The third reason that bookmakers are still valuable is because some of them offer Best
Odds Guaranteed on certain UK horse races. This basically means that if you take an
early price in the morning at 10/1 and the horse drifts out to 15/1 at the off and wins,
the bookmaker guarantees to pay you the higher price.

If you take a similar bet with BetFair and the horse drifts higher, it’s tough luck!

Know your enemy

Before we look at the problems you may experience with bookmakers, it is worth
understanding how exactly a bookmaker operates.

Whenever you take a loss, it’s all too easy to visualize the bookmaker as thief who’s
laughing with your money all the way to the bank. While no one is suggesting
bookmakers are charities, it’s worth exploring how they actually make their money.

Bookmakers are so called because they run a ‘book’ on any event. This might be a
horse race, a football match or a reality TV program. They price up each outcome and
manage their book so that betting on every outcome won’t produce a profit. Their
greatest liability is usually on the favourite because this is where most of the money is
on usually. When Mon Mome came home in the Grand National recently at 100/1,
bookies were dancing for joy because although the price was high, they had very little
liability on that horse (very few people bet on it).

The bookmaker edge is called the overround, which is usually expressed as a number
above 100. PCB covers this in his 16 runner handicap races in more detail. The upshot is
that individual bookmakers will have an ‘overround’ of between 105% and 130% on each
event. This is their edge.

Although profitable, bookmakers don’t have a huge profit on turnover. For bookmakers,
it is all about volume or ‘vol’ as they call in it in the industry. PaddyPower recently
released their results, and it was interesting to note that the profit on turnover for the
internet operations was just 6.6% for the last financial year. If they lay punters
£1,000,000 worth of bets, they expect to make just £66,000 profit. Therefore, they are
keen to find any way possible to increase their volume while at the same time not
losing out too much with their profit on turnover. Bookies make money in other areas
such as fixed odds betting terminals, or casino games online, but the main driver of
business is their sports book.

Over the last financial year, many bookmakers have seen their volume decrease, so
they’ve had to introduce lots of new ways to keep their volume up. Recently a raft of
bookmakers started offering Best Odds Guaranteed on UK horse racing for the first
time, this is for one reason only – to increase volume.

Unfortunately for us, this increase in volume has to be paid for as they seek to
maintain their profit on turnover at reasonable levels

Old school bookmaking

If you ever go to a UK racetrack or even better a dog track, spend a few minutes
watching the on course bookmakers as they price up each race. Usually, each stand has
at least two representatives, one guy doing the business and adjusting the odds and
another behind him managing the book. This is usually done via a computer
spreadsheet. As business flows in, they manage the book and adjust odds accordingly.
They will have a greater liability on the favourite usually, so if too much money comes
in, they will slash odds to get business coming in on other outcomes.

In this open arena, they can see what other bookies are pricing events at, and they
make sure they’re not too out of line. They can also easily spot their best and worst
customers and have the right to refuse business if they want to, or restrict the amounts
they will let a certain customer get on. Individual restrictions are actually quite rare
with on course bookmakers, because they don’t want to be seen to be turning away
business, and on a practical level there are too many faces to remember. They will
have limits on the amount they will take on each event anyway.

This is bookmaking in its simplest form.

Unfortunately in their quest for volume and profit on turnover, bookmakers are
becoming increasingly competitive in managing their risk by restricting certain clients,
or slashing odds quickly.

Slashing odds

SBC members following a successful tipster such as Equine Investments, will identify
with this all too well. Most of the time, unless you are on the tip within 10 minutes the
advised odds will have gone (or be unavailable to you).

Bookmakers will have pricing analysis set the morning prices, but in certain races,
there will be a certain element of guess work. There are too many races to price up
each and every day for the bookmaker to be spot on in everything. Tipping services
such as Equine Investments, or Skeeve’s non league football tips are able to specialize
in certain areas in the way that a bookmaker cannot, so their ability to spot value is
what makes them so valuable. As a tipster becomes more popular, their following will
increase as will the amount money being wagered in total on those tips.

If a bookmaker puts an early price up for a horse at 15/1 and suddenly sees a massive
flood of business coming in for it, they will do the sensible thing and cut the amount
you can have at that price, while they figure out what price it should be at. Others
take a different approach of slash first, ask questions later.

There’s little you can do about this other than make sure you’re ahead of the crowd,
and get on the bet as soon as it comes in.

A sensible bookmaker will subscribe to the tipster themselves. We’re told by a former
pricing analyst at the ToteSport that they used to subscribe to Isiris when the service was at
the top of its game. They would have an alert ready for when a bet came in and slash
that price as quickly as they could. A sensible bookmaker would do the same with
Equine Investments.

It’s not a coincidence that some bookmakers will stop slashing at just below any
suggested minimum price. We’ve seen this happen so many times with Equine’s bets.

They might say “bet down to 8/1”. The bookmaker knows that anything below 8/1 is no
longer value so they put up 7/1 to attract business from mug punters who want to get
on the bet no matter what the price.

Directly following a tipster isn’t the only way a bookmaker will know when to adjust
prices on a fairly basic level, if their book becomes too heavily weighted on a certain
event, they will bring prices down to adjust. Bookmakers now employ price trackers to
keep and eye on the order flow, and predict where prices might be going and what’s
driving them.

They will mark certain accounts as being from successful punters, and use software
that tracks all their activity. If successful punters make a move on a certain selection,
they know something is up and will move odds quickly.

Individual restrictions and account closures.

Slashing odds is something that perhaps many punters could understand, but what is
more galling is when a bookmaker manages their risk by keeping a certain price up, but
restricting the amount that certain punters can get on it. Certain bookmakers (which
we’ll name and shame in a moment) are more likely to restrict than others.
The next step is for the bookmaker to restrict all bets, not just certain events. The
final step is for the bookmaker to close accounts, although they may already have done
this in effect by limiting the punter to pennies.

The problem with these dark arts is that there is no discernable pattern to it. Some
punters find they can have winning bets with certain bookmakers for years with no
problems, while other punters have their account closed within months even when they
haven’t made a profit with them.

Some bookmakers are worse than others though as our recent bookmaker poll revealed.
We asked SBC members to let us know about the bookmakers they use and the
problems they have had. In some ways, the poll will be slightly skewed because those
who have faced restrictions will be more motivated to complete the poll, but it at least
allows us to compare between bookmakers.

The first column shows the bookmaker, and the second column shows the % of
responders who have an account with them. The next column is the percentage of
people with an account with that bookmaker who say they experience severe
restrictions in getting bets on. The last column is the percentage of people who have
had an account closed with that bookmaker.

BookmakerResponders with an account, percentage with Severe
Restrictions, percentage with Account closed

Bet365 84.00% 32.14% 4.76%
Ladbrokes 76.00% 19.74% 3.95%
Victor Chandler 75.00% 21.33% 16.00%
BlueSquare 72.00% 33.33% 2.78%
Coral 72.00% 38.89% 1.39%
PaddyPower 72.00% 34.72% 4.17%
ToteSport  70.00% 18.57% 5.71%
Sporting Bet 66.00% 56.06% 3.03%
BetFred 63.00% 46.03% 11.11%
StanJames 62.00% 45.16% 4.84%
BoyleSports 58.00% 50.00% 5.17%
SkyBet 57.00% 36.84% 3.51%
CentreBet 44.00% 6.82% 0.00%
Canbet 43.00% 0.00% 2.33%
William Hill 38.00% 52.63% 36.84%
Extrabet 38.00% 2.63% 0.00%
Bwin 30.00% 30.00% 3.33%
Pinnacle 29.00% 3.45% 0.00%
Unibet 23.00% 26.09% 0.00%
The Greek 19.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Nordic bet 19.00% 36.84% 0.00%
888Sport 17.00% 70.59% 17.65%
188bet 15.00% 0.00% 0.00%
BetChronicle 14.00% 7.14% 0.00%
Betsson 13.00% 23.08% 0.00%
Expekt 10.00% 60.00% 0.00%
Sbobet 9.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Bodog 6.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Jetbull 6.00% 83.33% 0.00%

It’s interesting to note that most people have an account with Bet365, possibly due to
its wide European user base.

In terms of severe restrictions, amongst the more popular bookmakers, the survey
seems to confirm anecdotal evidence about Sporting Bet, Boyle Sports and BetFred. In
our experience, these (especially Boyles and BetFred) are amongst the worst
bookmakers in the industry when it comes to restrictions. They are usually the quickest
to restrict accounts while still posting up certain odds. Some of the lesser used
bookmakers such as Jetbull show a high number of restrictions, but this data may be
skewed by the low number of responses.

When it comes to account closures, William Hill appear to be the worst with Victor Chandler and
BetFred not far behind. Of the more popular bookmakers, ToteSportSport come out quite
well overall as do CentreBet.

How to protect your bookmaker accounts

Successful betting is all about finding value and that value is all about getting the best
prices. So to continue to make betting pay, we need to find ways to keep the best
prices open to us for as long as possible.

Although restrictions are almost inevitable with shoddy bookmakers such as BetFred,
there are ways to keep your account active with most bookmakers. Here’s how:

1. Know your enemy and what they hate.

The first thing to do is to prioritise your bookmakers in terms of the ones you would
miss the most if you were to be severely restricted. Remember the sort of bets
bookmakers hate – Each Way bets with generous place terms.
Where at all possible try to avoid placing these sort of bets with the bookmakers you
wish to protect.

One thing we have noticed based on feedback from members is that it isn’t
automatically the amount you win that leads to problems, but the way you bet. Big
Mike has suggested throwing in some small ‘stupid’ bets to throw them off the scent
such as speculative multiples.

2. Spread your bets.

If practical for you, instead of lumping on £100 on one bookmaker, try to spread your
bets so you place £50 with one bookmaker and £50 with another. This lessens the
impact of one bookmaker taking a big hit. Of course with time sensitive tipsters such as
Equine, you may not have time for this. However, taking the time to spread your
wagers around at other less time sensitive points, may mean you are able to get
amounts on quickly on your terms when you need to.

As a rule of thumb, bookmakers seem to be relatively comfortable with stakes around
the £50 market. A good approach is to spread your bets around certain tipsters or
methods rather than lumping it all on one tipster or system. We personally have our
portfolio weighted to Equine Investments and try to place all other bets so as to
protect the accounts we need most for Equine.

If for example you do a lot of football betting, try to place these bets away from the
accounts that might be vital for a key horse racing tipster.

3. Rotate your bookmakers as much as possible.

Try to randomly use different bookmakers when placing your bets. For example, you
might use Ladbrokes a lot for the simple reason that you’ve got lots of money in there.
Try not to do this, if different bookmakers offer the same odds. If 5 bookmakers offer
the same odds, use one that you haven’t bet with for a while.

4. Look beyond the usual big name UK bookmakers

There are more bookmakers out there than you think, especially when it comes to
football betting. Make full use of odds comparison sites and don’t just stick to familiar
names just because you know them.

For UK horse racing, your options are perhaps limited beyond the big names for Each
Way betting especially, but even here there are bookmakers that it seems members
may not be making full use of.

We use Betinternet.com for placing a number of bets from our own systems and find
them to be pretty accommodating at stakes under £50. Canbet are also a useful firm to
use with their Best Odds Guaranteed offers. CentreBet, the Australian bookmaker often
has excellent odds, and according to our survey rarely restricts members too severely.
Aside from BetFair, which we’ll come on to in a moment, there is an entire world of
bookmakers for you to make use of. Restrictions aside, it makes sense to use these to
make sure you get the best value in the first place.

Don’t just rely on one odds comparison site. Different sites display slightly different
bookmakers to each other.
The best odds comparison sites are as follows:

www.oddschecker.com
www.bestbetting.com
www.betbrain.com

If you have time, it’s worth checking all these sites. There’s little point doing this with
horse racing because there’s little variation between the first two. However for
football and other sports, there can be some hidden gems.

For example Oddschecker lists the odds from Extrabet whereas Best Betting does not.
Extrabet can often have some excellent stand out odds. Best Betting lists JetBull which
Oddschecker doesn’t.

Betbrain is a very useful odds comparison site and often overlooked. The main reason
we like to check it is because it lists the odds from the excellent Pinnacle Sports.

Pinnacle Sports are a fine example of how bookmaking should be done. Sure they move
odds in response to weight of money, but any sensible bookmaker would. On the
positive side though, they are very unlikely to restrict you and we haven’t heard of a
single person who had their account closed with them. Their prices are also usually
very good.

For example in the recent Arsenal Celtic game, according to Best betting and
Oddschecker, the best non exchange price on offer on Arsenal and the draw were 1.33
and 5.05. A quick check on Betbrain and Pinnacle were offering 1.37 and 5.30.

Betbrain will list the odds from a number of minor and or European based bookmakers
that are well worth using. Bookies such as Betsson may not have the biggest wagering
limits and might be quick to restrict, but shouldn’t be completely ignored. If they are
offering the same odds as say Ladbrokes on a football match, and you know Ladbrokes
is an important account for you, it would make sense to go with Betsson.

Where possible, we use the likes of Jetbull and Betsson when they offer the same odds
as mainstream less ‘expendable’ bookmakers. Better to get some winners out of them
and protect your main account.

Asian Bookmakers

Betbrain often, but not always lists the odds from Asian Bookmakers which is another
area that shouldn’t be overlooked. These bookmakers service the fervent interest in
gambling throughout Asia. They mainly specialize in the Asian Handicap market on
football, but they increasingly offer odds on a variety of markets such as traditional
home/ draw/ away football betting.

Their odds are competitive and crucially they are happy to accept large bets without
restriction.

Until recently, the only way to access Asian Handicap betting was through third party
agents. Their regulator jurisdiction was often opaque at best, putting may people off.
However recently, Asian Bookies have become more main stream. 188bet, Mansion88
and Sbobet sponsor premier league teams which is certainly a statement of intent. The
target market for this sponsorship remains Asia for the moment though, were interest
in the premier league shows no signs of slowing.

What this increased presence has done is to have encouraged Asian Bookmakers to
become more open to European clients. 188bet and SBobet are now regulated in
Europe by Maltese authorities, and now accept more regular payment method such as
credit cards and Moneybookers.

It is well worth double checking the odds from these Asian books for your football
betting.

You might understandably be concerned about security of funds with these Asian
bookmakers and the minor books. The answer is to never keep too much money in
these accounts and withdraw at regular intervals.
MoneyBookers is recommended for such transactions.

5. Stagger withdrawals

On the subject of withdrawals, one suspicion that some members have is that large
withdrawals will trigger account restrictions. We’re not sure if this is true, but it’s
worth keeping in mind, and won’t be too hard to work around. If you have some big
winners stagger withdrawals over time rather than in one lump. We’ve heard other
rumours that keeping large sums of money in the account can be a warning flag. In
both cases, slow and steady withdrawals seems to be the optimum strategy.

6. Make use of BetFair as much as possible

Although highlighted the fact that after commission, BetFair’s odds can sometimes be
worse than a bookmakers, this is certainly not the case with every bet.
With anything at 8/1 and over, you’re very likely to find better odds at BetFair and as
prices get up 20/1 and beyond, you will almost certainly be able to grab higher odds on
the exchange.

Even if BetFair’s odds are the same as a bookmakers or just slightly worse, it’s worth
placing bets there. This goes back to what we were saying about protecting certain
accounts. In addition, the more you bet with BetFair, the lower your commission
becomes.

In play betting can be a god send as well. If you miss the advised odds on a bet,
especially in horse racing, you can request those odds to be matched in play. You
won’t be matched all the time on the winning horses, but it can be a better substitute
than missing the bet entirely especially on the longer distance horse racing events.
This approach can also work well in football, although there is no option to keep bets
‘in play’ on BetFair. You can request odds, but your bet will be cancelled if not
matched when the game starts.

However, using a Gruss bot, it is incredibly easy to request odds and ask for the bet to
remain as a request as the game goes in play. If there is no goal in the first 10-15
minutes, you might be able to catch the price you requested.
BetFair gets the lion’s share of volume, so this is the usual focus, but don’t ignore Betdaq entirely.

Every so often someone will pop up on Betdaq offering you better
odds. It’s worth keeping an eye on BetChronicle which gets its price feed from Betdaq.
The price on offer is usually lower than Betdaq, but sometimes higher than it would be
once you have paid commission.

7. Use all different bookmaker channels.

This point is especially important if you are already facing restrictions. Bookmakers
that offer different betting channels often have different risk limits. So for example
with William Hill, you might be restricted online, but still be able to get big amounts
on via the phone.

Not all bookmakers offer phone betting etc, but it is certainly worth trying your
bookmaker on all the channels they have available such as:

Internet
Phone
Wap (mobile betting)
TV (Sky mainly)
In the shop

Note that not all bookmaker offers such as Best Odds Guaranteed are available away
from the Internet. Ladbrokes offer BOG on all channels, but William Hill, Coral, Victor Chandler
StanJames do not allow it on the phone. StanJames also only allows BOG for certain
customers (losing ones)

8. Friends and Family

A last resort is to open up new accounts in the names of friends and family. In this case
it may work to use a friend or family member’s name but use an anonymous Money
Bookers account to fund these accounts with.

Conclusions

We hope this helps you keep your accounts running for longer, and if you are just
starting, to start out on the right foot. It is well worth using all the above measures
because two years down the line you could be thanking your preparation.

Filed Under: Sports Betting
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