First Time Blinkers On The Flat by David Renham

With the flat season gathering pace, I have decided to look at horses that are blinkered for the first time. There are numerous ideas why horses are given blinkers to wear.

These include:

-         To try and get the horse to concentrate as some horses get distracted by the other runners in a race;

-         To help the horse break quickly from the stalls. Blinkers often have this effect when worn for the first time;

-         As a last resort to try and improve a horses’ performance.

What one should realise however, is that generally fitting first time blinkers is a negative rather than a positive. The data for this article is taken from the last 6 complete seasons – flat/all weather racing only. All profits are calculated to £1 level stakes at SP. It should be noted that I have included only runners that are wearing blinkers only (for the first time) – I have excluded runners who were wearing tongue ties also. For the record the combination of blinkered first time + tongue tie produce virtually identical strike rates and returns (from a much smaller sample).

Firstly let us look at the results of all runners wearing blinkers for the first time on the flat over the period of study:

Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
441	6336	7%	-£1748.87	-27.6

Essentially therefore these runners win around once in every fourteen starts (roughly) for losses of just under 28 pence in the £. Not a great starting point from a betting perspective. However, let us break these stats down into different categories to see if we can either find better betting propositions, or ‘gilt-edged’ laying opportunities.

Age

The perception is that blinkers improve younger horses best, especially 2yos. Let us look at the results breakdown when split by age:

Age	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
2	85	1197	7.1	-£433.73	-36.2
3	185	2755	6.7	-£928.06	-33.7
4	93	1378	6.8	-£344.38	-25.0
5	46	539	8.5	+£68.41	+12.7
6	19	261	7.3	-£80.13	-30.7
7	5	127	3.9	-£66.00	-52.0
8 or older	8	79	10.1	+£35.00	+44.3

As we can see 2yos actually perform below the ‘norm’. Looking at the ages as a whole, there is no discernable pattern, although much older horses (8yo+) have done relatively well from a very small sample.

Digging deeper into the 2yo stats, I have broken down the data by number of career runs:

Career starts	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
debut	4	53	7.5	-£29.00	-54.7
2nd career start	4	110	3.6	-£46.00	-41.8
3rd career start	4	155	2.6	-£98.50	-63.5
4th career start	23	261	8.8	-£127.41	-48.8
5th career start	17	215	7.9	-£10.50	-4.9
6th career start	11	170	6.5	-£87.81	-51.7
7th or more	22	233	9.4	-£34.50	-14.8

Two things that seem to stand out here are firstly that 2yos that have raced several times (7 or more), react to first time blinkers relatively well; secondly 2yos that are assigned blinkers on their 2^nd or 3^rd career start do extremely poorly in terms of strike rate. My guess is that there is an over-reaction to a poor debut run and the addition of blinkers actually makes things worse.

Market position

Generally the market is an excellent guide to the chances of each horse. Let us look at first time blinkered horses coupled with their market position:

Market pos	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
Favourite	85	334	25.5	-£51.82	-15.5
2nd favourite	78	437	17.9	-£70.06	-16.0
3rd favourite	55	510	10.8	-£154.50	-30.3
4th in betting	47	532	8.8	-£99.50	-18.7
5th in betting	39	567	6.9	-£139.00	-24.5
6th or bigger	43	621	6.9	-£34.00	-5.5
7th or bigger	94	3335	2.8	-£1,200.00	-36.0

At first glance the performance of favourites looks OK. However, when we take ALL flat favourites as a whole, the strike rate is around 30-31% with losses of only 6-7%. Hence, horses that start favourite when blinkered for the first time are not good betting propositions.

Race types

Let us break the data down now by specific race types:

Race type	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
Amateur races	2	57	3.5	-£43.25	-75.9
Claimers	42	482	8.7	-£7.43	-1.5
Group/Listed	9	194	4.6	-£79.75	-41.1
Handicaps	246	3653	6.7	-£1,010.10	-27.7
Maidens	73	1023	7.1	-£426.17	-41.7
Sellers	34	569	6.0	-£204.38	-35.9

Although the data is limited a combination of first time blinkers and an amateur rider looks one to avoid. Indeed of the 55 losers, only 3 got placed. I decided to look back further just to gather a bigger data set. I looked at first time blinkered runners in amateur contests from 1997 to 2004 – they fared poorly once again with just 3 wins from 104.

Maiden races have seen losses of around 42 pence in the £ which above the base figure of 27.6p. Auction maidens have provided the poorest results for first time blinkered runners with just 12 wins from 279 (SR 4.3%) for a loss of £151.06 (ROI -54.1%). Indeed, 2yo maiden Auction races are even worse with just 3 winners from 160 runners (SR 1.9%) for a hefty loss of £129.50 (ROI -80.9%).

Claiming races have seen close to a break-even situation despite a low strike rate of around 9%. Indeed if you exclude maiden claimers the strike rate rises to 9.3% and profits are made; albeit 9 pence profit for every £ wagered. However, it should be noted that these profit figures are essentially down to a few big priced winners and hence it is not an area where the backer can be confident to make a profit in the future.

Race distance

Let us break the data down now by race distance:

Race type	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
5-6f	139	2134	6.5	-£718.29	-33.7
7-8f	160	2270	7.0	-£583.43	-25.7
9-10f	58	876	6.6	-£225.05	-25.7
11-12f	61	694	8.8	-£128.31	-18.5
13f+	23	362	6.4	-£93.80	-25.9

In general there does not seem to be any pattern here. I had expected longer races to produce slightly poorer results but this is not the case.

Turf v all weather

Surface	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
All weather	203	2480	8.2	-£454.92	-18.3
Turf	238	3856	6.2	-£1293.95	-33.6

Horses wearing blinkers for the first time perform better on the all weather compared with turf. This could be due to the fact all weather racing is less competitive; or generally of lower grade. Whatever the reason, the stats are worth taking note of.

Jockeys

I decided to see if the experience of the jockey made a difference. The table below compares professional jockeys with claiming jockeys:

Jockey	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
professional	374	4914	7.6	-1127.87	-23.0
claiming	67	1422	4.7	-£621.00	-43.7

The figures seem to suggest the less experienced jockeys struggle when horses are blinkered for the first time. Losses close to 44 pence in the £ combined with a strike rate of under 5% means that one should swerve these jockeys under these circumstances.

Trainers

Some trainers have a better understanding of their animals than others so one would expect a real mix of results for first time blinkered runners. I have included all trainers that have saddled at least 30 horses with first time blinkers:

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate%	Profit/loss	ROI%
Sir M Prescott	11	51	21.6	+£27.40	+53.7
B Smart	5	30	16.7	+£0.50	+1.7
C Cox	6	37	16.2	+£8.90	+24.1
I Semple	5	34	14.7	-£5.63	-16.5
R Charlton	5	35	14.3	-£9.13	-26.1
G Butler	5	36	13.9	+£19.00	+52.8
R Hannon	16	129	12.4	+£0.50	+0.4
M Tregoning	4	33	12.1	+£33.00	+100.0
R Harris	8	68	11.8	+£47.75	+70.2
J Boyle	4	34	11.8	+£1.00	+2.9
T Barron	6	54	11.1	-£12.00	-22.2
M Easterby	9	85	10.6	-£20.75	-24.4
C Brittain	6	57	10.5	-£12.38	-21.7
W Haggas	7	67	10.5	-£13.00	-19.4
J Moore	5	49	10.2	+£12.25	+25.0
M Johnston	12	118	10.2	+£1.58	+1.3
P Cole	9	89	10.1	-£29.25	-32.9
J Dunlop	6	61	9.8	-£11.67	-19.1
K Ryan	14	144	9.7	-£7.38	-5.1
P Grayson	6	64	9.4	-£17.05	-26.6
J Gosden	7	75	9.3	-£17.17	-22.9
B Meehan	15	161	9.3	+£8.08	+5.0
N Littmoden	4	44	9.1	-£17.50	-39.8
J Osborne	4	46	8.7	+£10.00	+21.7
G L Moore	6	72	8.3	-£24.38	-33.9
B Hills	3	36	8.3	+£15.00	+41.7
M Quinlan	3	36	8.3	-£18.50	-51.4
P Evans	4	50	8.0	-£8.50	-17.0
T Easterby	10	131	7.6	-£11.75	-9.0
E Johnson Houghton	2	31	6.5	-£6.00	-19.4
W Muir	4	64	6.3	-£35.75	-55.9
B Ellison	2	32	6.3	-£9.00	-28.1
M Dods	2	32	6.3	-£11.50	-35.9
Mrs A Perrett	4	67	6.0	-£30.00	-44.8
R Fahey	4	71	5.6	-£35.50	-50.0
E Dunlop	2	44	4.6	-£36.00	-81.8
R Beckett	2	50	4.0	-£20.00	-40.0
M Tompkins	2	57	3.5	-£43.50	-76.3
M Jarvis	1	30	3.3	-£25.00	-83.3
I McInnes	1	34	2.9	-£29.50	-86.8
P Blockley	1	35	2.9	-£30.00	-85.7
R Millman	1	37	2.7	-£8.00	-21.6
J Bradley	0	66	0.0	-£66.00	-100.0
A Berry	0	50	0.0	-£50.00	-100.0
J Given	0	41	0.0	-£41.00	-100.0
J Eustace	0	31	0.0	-£31.00	-100.0
J Weymes	0	30	0.0	-£30.00	-100.0

Sir Mark Prescott has excellent figures considering how poor these runners do in general – a better than 1 in 5 strike rate with profits of over 50 pence for every £ wagered. At the other end of the scale, Milton Bradley and Alan Berry have combined to produce 0 winners from 116 runners.

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To conclude, horses blinkered for the first time are essentially poor investments. However, some are much worse than others as this article has hopefully highlighted. If nothing else, I suspect this article may save you from backing certain horses that have a very poor chance of winning. This should help your betting bank balance.

There are obvious opportunities for layers on betting exchanges such as BetFair or Betdaq as well.

About The Author:

Dave Renham contributes horse racing research articles to the Racing And Football Outlook newspaper. He also spent time writing the spotlight section for the Racing Post.

More of his research work may be found online at www.PunterProfits.com and www.RacingTrends.co.uk

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Know Your All Weather Race Types by David Renham

This is the second article in a series of three all weather articles – the first being on southwell Sires In this piece I am going to look at specific race types in attempt to help you, the reader, gain that important edge over “the crowd”. Many punters are put off the all weather due to the general standard of racing – low grade handicaps, claimers and sellers are regular events on the all weather circuit, but there are plenty of positive and negative angles that once appreciated can improve your chances of making a profit. The focus of this article is these lower grade contests.

The data for this article is taken from last six years; ROI stands for return on investment; SR stands for strike rate and LTO stands for last time out. Unless otherwise stated, all profit and losses are quoted to industry starting price.

Claiming races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just under 74% of the winners. Favourites have an especially good record in all weather claimers scoring 35.6% of the time. Indeed backing all favourites “blind” would have yielded very small losses of 4%. Indeed backing all favourites since the inception of BetFair SP would have seen you break even and that is taking commission into account. Longer priced horses have a poor record and runners priced 16/1 or bigger show significant losses. Their record reads 73 wins from 3570 qualifiers (SR 2%) showing losses of £1473.00 to (ROI -41.3%). At the completely rank outsider stage – horses priced 80/1 or bigger have produced 425 consecutive losers with just 8 of them managing a place.

Last time out – horses that won LTO go on to win again just over 25% of the time in claimers, and backing all such runners would have produced losses of around 11%. Horses that won on the all weather LTO are much better betting propositions that horses that won on the turf LTO – strike rates of 26% against 15% confirm this. Indeed, regardless of LTO position, it is an advantage to have raced on the all weather LTO rather than on the turf LTO.

Age – interestingly older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 8.7%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 14.4%.

Sex of horse – In claimers colts, geldings and horses are 1.62 times more likely to win than fillies and mares.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses that are racing for a new stable in all weather claiming races score around 9% of the time, but backing all runners would have lost you about 46% (46p for every £1 wagered);

2. Maiden runners have a poor record in claimers scoring just 6% of the time and losing around 37%;

3. Horses that have recorded 2 or more course successes have a decent strike rate of 17% and backing all runners would have yielded very small losses of 2.2%;

4. Horses having their first ever racecourse outing are worth avoiding with only 7 wins from 229 qualifiers (SR 3.1%). Backing all debutants would have produced significant losses of £149.50 (ROI -65.3%);

5. Horses that raced in a claiming race last time have a strike rate of 15%; compare this to horses that raced in a selling race last time whose strike rate is under 8%;

6. The following trainers secured a strike rate of 20% or better during the 6-year study (from at least 60 runners) – Tom Dascombe, Dandy Nicholls, Kevin Ryan, Jim Boyle, Jack Pearce, Gary Moore.

 

Selling races

Market – the top three in the betting have provided 71.7% of the winners with favourites winning a third of all races. Backing all selling favourites would have yielded a loss of 6.8%. There are two favourite stats worth noting; firstly horses priced 8/11 or shorter have scored over 70% of the time and backing them all would have produced a profit of 10%; secondly favourites returning to the track less than 10 days since their last run have provided 89 winners from 227 (SR 39.2%) for a profit of £19.55 (ROI +8.6%). Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have an extremely poor record – just 20 wins from 1887 qualifiers (SR 1.1%) showing huge losses of £1164.00 to (ROI -61.7%). Horses priced 50/1 or bigger have produced just 3 winners from 890 runners for losses of over 81%.

Last time out – horses that won LTO are not good propositions in selling races. They win roughly 1 time in 5 but backing all runners would have yielded losses of around 19%. One area worth noting is that horses that ran LTO in 3yo or all age maidens have a dreadful strike rate – they have provided just 14 winners from 317 qualifiers (SR 4.4%).

Age – as with claiming races, older horses have a better strike rate than younger ones in all age claimers. However, the bias is less pronounced. Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined strike rate of 9%, whereas horses aged 6 or older have a combined strike rate of 12.2%.

Sex of horse – in sellers once again colts, geldings and horses have an edge over fillies and mares. However, it is not quite as clear cut as it was in claimers with the male to female success ratio in sellers standing at 1.4.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Horses upped in class have won just 4.5% of the time; horses racing in the same class as LTO have won 10.3% of the time; horses dropping in class have won 11.4% of the time;

2. Trainers Peter Evans, Jim Boyle, Gary Moore and George Baker are trainers who have good records in selling races on the all weather;

3. Horses carrying high weights in sellers have a better strike rate than those carrying low weights. Horses carrying 9st or more have a strike rate of 12.6%; horses carrying under 9st have a strike rate of 8.8%;

4. For “in running” punters it should be noted that the early leader of a 5f seller goes on to win over 25% of the time.

 

Handicap races (class 6 or lower)

Market – the top three in the betting have provided just over 54% of the winners. Favourites win around 1 race in 4 (26% to be precise) for losses of under 7%. The most successful favourites in handicaps have been in 2yo nurseries – a strike rate of 30.4% and profits of 6%. 3yo only handicaps see favourites perform solidly thanks to a strike rate of 30.9% with losses amounting to less than 2%. Lingfield has been most successful track for low grade handicap favourites producing a break even situation to SP.

Last time out – LTO winners score 16.6% of the time, with losses standing at 19%. However, if the LTO winners return to the track within 7 days their strike rate increases to 24%. These quick returns score 37% of the time and reach a break even situation if they start favourite. However, beware of LTO winners that start 10/1 or bigger in the betting – they have won just 4.4% of the time with steep losses of 38%.

Horses that ran in handicaps LTO are better betting propositions that horses that ran in non handicaps LTO – strike rates of 9% against 6.5% confirm this. The returns for each category though do not totally mirror the strike rates with losses of 21% for runners that ran in handicaps LTO, compared with losses of 25% for runners who ran LTO in non handicaps.

Sex of horse – the male to female success ratio is 1.3 in low grade handicaps open to both sexes. Percentage losses for male runners stand at only 17% compared with 28% for females. It is also should be noted that female runners have really struggled at Lingfield – their strike rate at the Surrey track is just 5.6% and losses are over 40%. Male runners have a definite advantage over female runners in these handicaps.

Miscellaneous stats:

1. Female runners returning to the track after a break of 57 or more days have a poor record – just 92 wins from 1967 runners (SR 4.7%) for a loss of £788.17 (ROI -40.1%);

2. Colts when starting favourites have been fairly rare (around 40 per year). However, of the 225 qualifiers over the past 6 seasons, 86 have won (SR 38.2%) for a profit of £50.05 (ROI +22.2%);

3. Runners priced 25/1 or bigger have won 2.1% of the time for losses to SP of 25%. However, since BetFair Starting Price was introduced in 2008 you could have made a profit by backing them all at BSP. Despite having only 70 winners from 3717 runners, you would have made a profit of £730.88 (ROI +19.7%).

I hope this article has shown you that the all weather offers betting opportunities in all race types – you just need to do some digging!

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Dave Renham is a leading researcher into uk horse racing.

His site at www.PunterProfits.com contains a lot more of his research work. Some is free and some is member only. It’s a good site for racing realists who believe that knowing your stats is a likely root to success.

The private boards there contain many interesting and highly past profitable threads maintained by members of punterprofits who obvioulsy have learnt a trick or two from all Dave’s horse racing research teachings.

www.smartersig.com is a betting community and research group producing a monthly magazine, web site and email discussion forum. Populated by some serious punters and writers its well worth checking out.

As a sampler we will be running a few selected articles here on progambler.co.uk. Hope you find them enjoyable.

THE NEWMARKET WIZARDS

This month’s SmarterSig.com interview is with Russell Clarke, professional punter and ex Odds On columnist.

How did you first get interested in horse racing and betting?

I was probably around ten years old when I first took an interest in horse-racing. Both my Grandad and my Uncle were keen punters and the house always had a copy of The Sporting Life as we all lived together at that time.

My Grandad read all of the views of the racing correspondents in the papers at the bookmakers and then came to a conclusion based on that pool of knowledge. My Uncle took a more analytical approach by compiling his own speed-figures and keeping the records on index-cards. As a youngster I often did the simple maths involved and helped him maintain the cards.

I became fascinated by the concept that the winner of a race could actually be worked out by the use of numbers or ratings. From there it was a natural progression to have a small “round robin” (my bet of choice at that age!)

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How successful or unsuccessful were you when you first started to bet regularly, did you serve the typical losing apprenticeship?

I didn´t keep records back then, so I would be guessing, but my stakes were very small and I fondly remember a number of very good wins, so I would guess that my pre-teen betting days were profitable. As I got older, I did bet more regularly, but it was the 70´s and I was lucky enough to be using the speed-figures from the old Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book. These figures were powerful and largely anonymous to the general betting public and so I was fortunate to have stumbled upon a source of profit.

I don´t suffer from a need to win on any given day and so have never chased losses or got into difficulties by being reckless or “on tilt”.

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Could you cite any pivotal moments or influences in your early regular betting life that shaped your style and approach to successful betting?

Lots! The first, and most important, was my belief that an objective approach to betting was more likely to succeed than a subjective one. This was almost the first conclusion I ever drew about betting on horse-racing. It came from a cursory glance at the Sporting Life Naps Table, which always showed that perhaps only 20% of the racing correspondents showed a profit on their daily “naps”. Reading their columns, I concluded it was because they based their bets on their personal opinion. At that time, I didn´t really appreciate the importance of odds in betting, but nevertheless, I have never wavered from my belief in objective analysis from the conclusions drawn as a ten year old looking at the Sporting Life Naps Table.

Other influences were, the speed-figures in the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book, the figures of Dick Whitford in the Sporting Life (which were my first introduction to the world of collateral form ratings), Phil Bull´s Timeform Computer Timefigures which I used for ante-post betting on the following year´s Guineas and Derby during the 1980´s in particular, and, any number of trends that I have found measurable such as the influence of the draw in Flat racing.

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My understanding is that you are more statistically prompted bettor than an interpretative one (ie- evaluating form via personal observations). How would you summarise your style.

As I have alluded to already, the central thread of my betting is objectivity. To summarise this in a sentence…”if I can´t measure it, I struggle to evaluate it and so tend to ignore it”

Throughout my betting life I have remained flexible in terms of changing my methods. Over the years I have relied on speed-figures, collateral form figures, draw, pace, statistical systems, and various mathematical approaches that highlight that most elusive of all variables…, value

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What would be a typical betting day for you (eg- 10.00pm compile list of contenders, 8.00am compile odds line, 10.00am check BetFair prices etc etc etc

It may surprise you to know that I rarely spend more than half an hour on any meeting. This is because of my objective style of betting. As I rely on figures and statistics and systems, the work has largely been done beforehand. Really, all I require are the runners and an accurate going description.

In the past I compiled oddslines….but now I do this almost by feel. My golden rule is that I don´t look at a paper or a web-site until I have approximate prices compiled. Then I look at BetFair and highlight the potential value horses in each race. It is then a case of deciding the best way to back them.

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Do you have any particular methods or approaches to handling a bad run of results. Could you give an example of a typical poor run eg time span, bets,  pts lost.

When I lived in England I ran a Subscription Service. I can´t recall the year, but during one Flat Season I made a paper profit of just 4 points to level stakes. In reality, the clients would have lost money because the profits were quoted at prices recommended and these became progressively more difficult to obtain with bookmakers. The meagre profits that year, were also due to a 50-1 winner at Royal Ascot and I think the losing sequence prior to that winner was something around 40 points or maybe a little more.

Such runs can sap confidence. Nowadays I hardly watch a race, except for the big events. This helps me personally. Watching loser after loser can be soul destroying, you blame bad luck, bad jockeys, bad “anything”. If you watch 8 losers and then a 10-1 winner, it hardly feels like a profitable day! So, I watch very little racing and sometimes don´t even check the results for a few days (I think my record is catching up on 4 days worth of results). I actually got that tip from a client. He reasoned that what happened day to day wasn´t really of any consequence if you have long-term faith.I think he has a valid point.

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When someone asks me if I have had a good day, I usually answer ‘I don’t care but I am having a good year’. I make this reply not because I wish to be flippant or because its easy to think this way but because thats were I want to be psychologically. You seem to be there already. Has this always been the case and more importantly do you think it’s innate or can it be developed.

My literal answer to the question is always honest but vague…so something along the lines of “a bit behind”, “a bit ahead”, “no, not today” or “yes thanks”. I´m only vague because I feel it is a little vulgar to mention numbers, akin to mentioning your profit if someone asks about your business. I suppose it also depends on who asks the question.

Therefore I don´t think the answer to such a question reflects the broader point you are trying to convey regarding seperating the short-term peaks and troughs from the long-term trend in your own mind. I´m lucky on this score because I´m putting faith in rigorous statistics and not my own ability to find winners, the former is established, the latter is subject to variations in confidence. Nature or nurture? At the risk of getting splinters on my backside (from fence-sitting)…a bit of both!

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The betting arena has changed enormously over the last 10 years. What impact has this had on your betting?

A huge impact. At one stage I relied almost exclusively on early morning prices and had accounts with bookmakers all over the country. I visited towns to open accounts with any independent who offered early prices or who might lay me say, the Big 3 or 4. In the 80´s I had a spell on-course to avoid betting tax, but found this soul-destroying.I have just read Dave Nevison´s book (very entertaining) in which he states that he prefers being on-course, so there is no right or wrong, but it just wasn´t for me. Driving home after losing a four-figure sum made me feel like getting a proper job!

I then discovered the spreads, but restrictions were soon applied and the majority of my bets I placed “abroad” and this was well before Victor moved to Gib! There was quite an underground betting scene and the main reason was to escape the betting tax.

Along came Flutter….my first dalliance with exchanges. They were swallowed up by BetFair and the exchanges changed the betting map of the UK.

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Some people complain that the exchanges have ruined early morning value whilst others feel things have never been so good. How do you stand, is it easier to make a profit now than pre exchanges. (note profit encompasses all aspects including getting on)

I believe bookmakers have become more astute at identifying winning punters, and, at an earlier stage. This makes it difficult to get on and as even accounts in friends and family names, that previously had served you well for a long period of time, are now heavily restricted very early on.

The exchanges are certainly lacking in liquidity in the morning markets. I think this highlights a flaw in the betting exchange business model, which is that eventually you can run out of “layers”.

With that caveat, I believe the exchanges have been a positive for punters overall.

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I know you bet on horse racing, do you bet on other events. How about laying and trading, do they play any significant part in your activities?

I don´t trade unless the odds dictate that I should. For example, if I rate something a 14-1 shot and I can back it at 25-1 then I do so. If the price subsequently shortens to 8-1, then I will become a layer and effectively trade that position. But overall, I don´t trade.

My main activity nowadays is football betting. The liquidity is much stronger than for horse racing and I find it a new and fascinating challenge. For football, I have joined forces with a really talented partner. The software we use generates prices for all markets (including in-play) and we simply back and lay around those prices. Just as for the racing, it is totally objective, and we aim to become the biggest players in the UK.

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I am no expert on the football markets, but my guess would be that the bigger profits and turnover is within the chaos of in play betting?. I have always thought the pre match odds were pretty tight?.

There are anomalies in the pre-match markets, but you are probably correct that the greater potential for profits occur during a game, when the market is constantly changing and reacting to events. However, the differences are not as marked as I believed they would be. As with horse-racing, certain factors are overlooked or even misunderstood by the market and this can happen almost as much pre-match as in-play.

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What do you see as the key characteristics needed in a successful professional gambler?

Boring stuff really…..being sensible, realistic and brave. But your greatest ally is Belief!

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There will always be a nucleus of people contemplating becoming a full time pro’ in the betting world. What are the positives and negatives of such a working life style?

It is no different to running any business of your own. My advice would be to forget it is about betting…just treat it as a business. Do all the things you would do to make any business successful.

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How do you balance the demands of pro’ gambling with home life. Have you had to make adjustments over the years and have you at any time in the past felt like you were simply working too hard at the betting.

Some Summers have been hard in the past because of the plethora of racing once the evening meetings kick-in. But I have never felt like I am working too hard.

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Finally, if I presented in front of you a willing wannabe professional punter (horse racing), who is the type of punter who doesn’t lose a lot over the year but cannot quite break into the regular profit zone. What advice would you offer such a person? Are there any simple tips that might improve the bottom line by the required amount?

I couldn´t really offer advice unless I knew this punter´s modus operandi. If we assume he utilises best prices, exchanges, spreads etc, but is till not winning, then he needs to change his selection methods. But a generic piece of advice, that we should all have transplanted into our heads is;

It´s ALL about the odds, NOTHING else matters

Readers questions to Russell Clarke

1. What are your basic figures, i.e. number of bets, strike rate, profit rate (per year).  Also, how long have you been able to sustain these figures.

The number of bets depends on the profit margins that I set. For example, if I set a requirement of a margin of 20% between assessed price and odds available, I will have less bets than if I set the margin at 10%.

If I am aggressive then 8 bets per meeting would be an average. Strike-rate also varies with the levels of margin set, but a broad average would be between 15 and 18%.

This has been relatively consistent over the years, though I am always a little surprised by the amount of variation season to season.

Football betting is a different animal. There are less unknown variables and so I can price up all markets and have a back and lay price for ALL selections. Therefore the number of bets on an individual game can run into 3 figures.

1. What do you consider to be the tools of your betting profession

All that is required, given that “it´s all about price…nothing else matters” is a means to accurately assess an accurate true price.

For Horse Racing I use a systematic approach utilising statistics, alongside collateral form.

For Football I use a 100% mathematical approach to produce goal expectations and from these, all other prices can be calculated.

I use software, written for me, to actually place the bets.

1. What is the worse bet you ever made (gory details included please)

The year Seagram won the Grand National, I had my biggest ever bet on Garrison Savannah. At that time, I was heavily into ante-post betting and I had backed Garrison at all prices, I think from 25-1 to 10-1. I would have won enough to buy a terraced house, so the equivalent of 100,000 pounds today. The scale of the bet was due to a theory I have about the Grand National, which has brought me numerous winners of the race. On the day, I didn´t even watch the race….I was at Sincil Bank watching Lincoln City. People in the crowd had radios on and I asked a chap behind me, quite nonchalantly, who had won the National? “They´re just coming to the last…” he said….. “Garrison Savannah has gone 10 lengths clear”. I kept really cool and started dreaming of my winnings. A minute later the chap patted me on the shoulder and said “Seagram won it”. Deflated wasn´t the word!

When I got home I watched the race on video. If any of you can recall the race, Garrison jumps past Seagram at the last and quickly powers 10 lengths clear…..at this stage, had BetFair been around, he would have been 1.01! As I watched the video, I couldn´t believe that somehow this horse would get beat. But, at the elbow, he simply died, like Crisp had done years before.

Certainly my worst betting experience.

1. Is most of your daily selection process automated, even down to the selection of value or do you have to resort to some manual analysis?

In horse racing, 95% is automated. But, some things I just find easier to assess manually than trying to assign a numerical value to. Jockey bookings is a good example.

In football, 95% is automated. Even the team news prior to kick off generates an automatic numerical indication of the effect it will have on goal expectations. However, to do that player ratings are required and they are a mixture of Opta stats and watching every Premiership game each week….so that is the 5% manual analysis.

1. You live abroad now, how has this affected you on a personal quality of life level and on a betting level?.

We have lived in Spain for 4 years and now 2 years in Dubai. Moving to a new country brings frustrations, but overall we have enjoyed the experiences. It has exposed myself and my children to different cultures and other ways of life.

On the betting front, it has taken me even further away from consensus opinion as I no longer have the Racing Post or other mainstream publications drip-feeding me opinions. Whether this has been positive or negative in terms of profitability is difficult to tell, but it has certainly made decisions more clear cut.

The technology of today means that geographical distance isn´t really an issue.

Having read the articles on this site many of you may be looking to join a subscription tipping service but with so many options available, and so many sharp operators out there, it is difficult to know where to start. Welcome to the Pro Gambler guide to getting started and finding a reliable service that chimes with your tastes and expectations.

When doing your initial research don’t just plump for the tipster with the most persuasive adverts, ring a selection of services to get a feel for what’s on offer out there and don’t be afraid to ask some ‘difficult’ questions about results, projected profits and the kind of selections you can expect to be backing. Remember if you don’t find the reassurance you are looking for move on, cross the said service off your list and call someone else.

Here are a few of the key themes you should use as a checklist when you are making your initial enquiries:

1.      CONTACT

Contact, accountability and accessibility should be key considerations for anyone looking to join a betting service. If results are poor, or there is something you need clarified, then you need to know that you can you contact someone easily and, that when you do, you’ll get knowledgeable, reassuring answers rather than evasive flannel.

In this respect, the first few conversations you have over the phone are usually very instructive. Do you feel like you’re being given the hard sell or does what you’re being told sound like an honest assessment of what you might expect as a member? If it is difficult to get hold of an accountable person at the outset, whilst you are intending to give them money, imagine what it will be like once you have subscribed and – worst case scenario – things have not panned out as described?

2.      PAST RESULTS

Ask for every service’s results record in advance of signing up and also check their list of past winners account prices against both Starting Prices (S.P.) and opening price shows via archives on sites, such as The Racing Post and Sporting Life. If there is a consistently wide variance between the two prices quoted on the advised selections then it is very likely that you will be unable to get the account prices in the future on a sustainable basis. It may also be the case that something is very much amiss in the way your prospective service records its recommended bets. Obviously, unverifiable historical results should be treated with some caution. Past records are not always reliable as a guide to either future profits or the reality of the bets a service actually recommended on any given day, but if you can see discrepancies at this initial enquiry stage, it should ring warning bells for you and you should tread very carefully thereafter.

3.   STAKING

Staking is a key issue that ties in specifically with both past results and how a service has created its alleged profits.

The larger the profit claims made by a service then the greater the likelihood that the stakes advised with the bets will be proportionally large too. Firstly, you must decide whether you would be able or are prepared to regularly risk such large amounts of capital or whether you’re ideally looking to operate within a comfort zone of extremely restricted stakes. Once you’ve made that decision you should factor it into your plan so you can firstly, recoup your subscription fees and secondly, create a satisfactory return on your investment. Betting £20 level stakes, for example, you probably won’t recoup the cost of a £1,000 subscription so you should choose your strategy and your service carefully at the outset. You should also consider how difficult it can be to get a big bet accepted when the bookmaker already has sizeable liabilities for the horse/team/player you’re being asked to back. Anyone who has ever tried to get a bet on a Pricewise selection from The Racing Post, for example, will know that they invariably struggle to get the best price advised in the paper and/or will have their stakes restricted on any large bet they make. Ask yourself: is this a likely scenario for you with the service you are looking to join?

If your prospective service’s profits are based on much larger prices that the S.P. and an expansive or arcane staking system, you will have a lot of trouble even getting anywhere close to their projected profit figures. Be sure to ask how the profits are recorded – £100 level stakes is the general industry standard – however, many services’ adverts record profits to £100 per point advised. If that’s the case, you need to know that in advance. Do you have the required betting bank to be backing a series of 5 pt win bets at £100 per bet (ie £500 win singles). If not, can you still make a profit from this service using a more conservative staking plan? It’s worth noting however that an unfamiliar or unusual approach to staking may not necessarily mean that a service is ‘bad’ or duplicitous in its claims, however, it may well mean that this level of complexity or capital exposure is not for you and you should aim to find a service appropriate to both your available investment capital and your personal betting psychology. Think in terms of issues such as strike rate, losing runs and the general prices of the selections you’ll be backing – does what is on offer correspond to what you feel comfortable with?

For example, my preference is for backing selections in a range between 3/1 and 33/1, I don’t like backing hyped favourites at odds on prices and I’m happy to accept that as a consequence, I will inevitably encounter losing runs. Other bettors however, prefer to follow the weight of money in the market assuming that the price offered represents a direct corollary of the horse’s chances of winning on the day, losing runs make them nervous and they want a steady stream of winners – almost regardless of the prices offered. Basically, you have to honestly evaluate what kind of bettor you are and find a service that suits that profile. For example, there is no service anywhere that can demonstrate a long term strike rate of 80%+ backing horses priced at 7/2 and above. It just can’t be done, and if anyone claims they can, swerve them quick-style.

4.   GETTING THE BETS

There are a number of service ‘quirks’ that you should investigate in advance and avoid at all costs.

Look out for:

-        Expensive call changes. Let’s face it, you’re already being asked to fork out for an expensive subscription, being hit with an expensive list of premium rate call charges too just isn’t on.

-        Be wary of repeated daily call backs that will make the membership a millstone over time. It may be fine to make three or four calls per day to ascertain the recommended bets if you work from home but for most people, holding down a job, it is potentially an administrative nightmare and an impractical and frustrating way to enjoy your hobby.

-     Make sure and ask what alternatives, if any, the service offers in terms of accessing the daily bets. For example, are they offered by email, a text or on a secure website as an alternative to a daily phonecall. Convenience is a key to getting the most from your betting.

-    Be very suspicious of services operating under an umbrella of different services because if you are struggling to recoup your outlays as a member of ‘Joe Bloggs Tipping’s Daily service’, you can rest assured that his Gold Service, Exclusive Service and Senior Service will inevitably be being marketed to all and sundry as ‘going great guns’. Be aware that services with multiple arms and entities may often also play up their big winners in adverts without divulging exactly which service they’ve come from. It’s a good ruse: after all if you operate seven services, offering up 50 tips a week between them, then it stands to reason that you’ll regularly find some big priced winners. Whether you could back all these selections, pay seven lots of fees and still turn a profit, however, is highly unlikely.

-   Another common ploy is to advertise that members can expect to back selections at average odds of 5/1 or more. What the adverts won’t tell you, however, is that the average odds figures are maintained by occasionally backing triple figure priced no-hopers to augment the steady flow of short priced favourites. Technically they are telling the truth, of course but, as a legitimate marketing practice, it sucks. See also: services recommending backing short-priced selections each way as a means of boosting strike rate or length of winning run stats. The recording of winning bets at prices that would never have been freely available to ordinary service members betting with mainstream bookmakers is another common bugbear.

FREE TRIAL

Ask for a free trial of some kind. Any service worth their salt should be happy to give you even one day’s access to the service’s selections. This may not sound like much, yet even a day will tell you a lot about the way the service works irrespective of results. You can tell a lot about the integrity of a service from the tone, content and insights of a message. Just because you had a 10/1 winner on your free day or a loser, it does not mean that every day brings 10/1 winners or you will always get losers and you should factor that into your expectations. However, if the message amounts to little more than some inside info ‘hocus pocus’, the name of your selection and the time and meeting it is racing at then beware – especially, if the advised horse is a hotly tipped odds on favourite. The chances are your tipster is picking his selections from his daily paper or following the money on BetFair – just like you would do. Another alternative to a free trial is a nominal first month’s fee when you sign up (£10-£20, say) with an option to cancel your subscription to subsequent month’s at the full terms if you are less than satisfied with results after 30 days.

Remember, above all else it is important that the service suits your requirements. As my end of year essay for The Observer Tipster Project illustrates (see link on front page), there are as many services as there are individual bettors temperaments and expectations. Personally speaking, I’d say a good service should allow you to improve your own betting as a result of the knowledge its experts pass on. Such knowledge will stand you well over your long term betting career. Where services give little more than a selection and no reasoning of why the bet is being made it is both very difficult to evaluate the quality of information you are receiving and also be reassured that you’ve made an informed choice. Is your tipster’s winning run simply the result of a lucky streak or conversely, is a losing spell perfectly explainable and likely to be reversed very soon? Only open exposure to a tipster’s methods will allow you to answer that question satisfactorily.

Given a choice between two equally profitable services, I’d personally always opt for the one that will educate me and enhance my enjoyment of my betting rather than simply spoon feed me names of horses without any accompanying rationale.  Of the services I’ve personally monitored to date, the impressively friendly forum on The Mathematician’s website www.mathematician-betting.co.uk is an extension of that philosophy based around a community ideal. Alternatively, Steve Lewis Hamilton’s service broadcasts a weekly message that deals with questions arising from subscribers’ enquiries and looks back in detail over the previous week’s bets.

Lastly, there is one particular option that you’d be well advised to avoid at all costs. That is unsolicited glossy mailshots that come your way via direct mail campaigns.

In this instance, the tipsters’ jazzy brochures will offer up all sorts of inducements from access to the most privileged stable intelligence to entry into every kind of sting, coup and scam imaginable – all for a never to be repeated cut price fee. In general, these offers, emanating from tipsters nobody has ever heard off, are little more than fishing expeditions hoping to snare a £100 or so from a constituency of desperate punters looking to transform their fortunes on the cheap. These scamsters enter into their campaign full in the knowledge that no-one will stay with them long enough to require re-subscription at their advertised full fee rates. These services are fly by night, superficial and unprofitable and over a period of time you’ll see the same offers and claims played out over a number of different mailshot formats as the conmen reinvent themselves under a succession of aliases. Another dubious tactic of the mail-shot brigade, especially if they’ve just tipped a winning selection,  is to make follow up calls to their clients asking for additional fees to join an inner circle of members with access to ‘a stream of guaranteed winners’ or a hush hush coup that skirts the bounds of legality. These slick skilled operators will adopt all the boiler room tactics of hardselling and manipulation that will be familiar to anyone who has seen the movie Glengarry Glenross. My advice, if you’ve just joined a service and you get that call, is put the phone down and don’t entertain them, however much you’re tempted by the sales pitch.