Bundesliga Research 1st April 2011

What a fortnight in The Bundesliga….

It is all perfectly summarised here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/mar/21/bundesliga-borussia-dortmund-mainz

I am definitely running scared with SIX managerial changes announced, yes, that is six managerial changes. Add in the muddling factor of an international break (with its effect on momentum) and you are resorting to even more guesswork than usual. The only sensible course of action for me is to sit this week out at the prices. The only thing I was slightly near to was a handicap bet on Bayern.

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 18/03/11

Borussia M’gla… 0 – 1 Kaiserslautern

Sat 19/03/11

Freiburg 1 – 2 Bayern München

http://www.footytube.com/video/SC-Freiburg-vs-Bayern-München-76307

Nürnberg 1 – 3 Werder Bremen

http://www.goalsarena.org/video/germany-bundesliga/19-03-2011-nurnberg-werder-bremen_en.html

Hannover 96 2 – 0 Hoffenheim

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hannover-96-vs-Hoffenheim-76246

Hamburger SV 6 – 2 Köln

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hamburger-SV-vs-1.-Köln-76289

Eintracht Fran… 2 – 1 St. Pauli

http://www.goalsarena.org/video/germany-bundesliga/19-03-2011-eintracht-frankfurt-st.-pauli_en.html

Borussia Dortmund 1 – 1 Mainz 05

http://www.goalsarena.org/video/germany-bundesliga/19-03-2011-eintracht-frankfurt-st.-pauli_en.html

Sun 20/03/11

Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 Schalke 04

http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayer-Leverkusen-vs-Schalke-04-76508

Stuttgart 1 – 1 Wolfsburg

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfB-Stuttgart-vs-VfL-Wolfsburg-76507

Results: Gladbach 0-1 Kaiserslautern, Hamburg 6-2 Köln, Freiburg 1-2 Bayern, Nürnberg 1-3 Bremen, Hannover 2-0 Hoffenheim, Frankfurt 2-1 St Pauli,Dortmund 1-1 Mainz, Leverkusen 2-0 Schalke, Stuttgart 1-1 Wolfsburg.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/bundesligafootball/tables

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 01/04/11

St. Pauli 19 : 30 Schalke 04

Sat 02/04/11

Kaiserslautern 14 : 30 Bayer Leverkusen

Werder Bremen 14 : 30 Stuttgart

Bayern München 14 : 30 Borussia M’gla…

Mainz 05 14 : 30 Freiburg

Borussia Dortmund 14 : 30 Hannover 96

Hoffenheim 17 : 30 Hamburger SV

Sun 03/04/11

Köln 14 : 30 Nürnberg

Wolfsburg 16 : 30 Eintracht Fran…

Bundesliga Research 17th March 2011

We are kind of hanging in there…just about. A 0.5pt+ profit last week was accrued on the back of Nurnberg’s late winner. Over all though it is hard to get really any teams’ bearings in Germany, in this season of shocks. Only Nurnberg appear to be playing consistently well. This week, The Bundesliga looks especially hard. Their are clouds hanging over the key staff roles at Bayern, Schalke, Hamburg and Werder Bremen that overshadow these clubs – and also rival teams, as the whispers begin in anticipation of a manager/coach merry-go-round.

I neither particularly like the fixtures or the prices this week – especially within the context of the off-field tensions at a number of key clubs. I reckon this is a week to sit out and take stock.

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 11/03/11

Köln 4 – 0 Hannover 96

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Köln-vs-Hannover-96-75749

This was a result that made a mockery of the recent form…..though perhaps Bayern are no form yardstick at all this season and should be dealt out of any analysis like a rogue stat.

Sat 12/03/11

Hoffenheim 1 – 0 Borussia Dortmund

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hoffenheim-vs-Borussia-Dortmund-75850

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/mar/14/bayern-hamburg-s04-wolfsburg

“Dortmund suffered a rare off-day and went down 1-0 away to Hoffenheim (Vedad Ibisevic, 63), who did a decent job in nullifying Nuri Sahin and Sven Bender at the heart of Borussia’s midfield. Bender will miss a couple of weeks with a dislocated shoulder, which seemed to hurt Jürgen Klopp more than the (largely irrelevant) defeat. “We were lacking the punch upfront,” said the manager.”

Bayern München 6 – 0 Hamburger SV

http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayern-München-vs-Hamburger-SV-75849

Bayern bounce back and remain as unpredictable as ever. Here they had a rare clean sheet – prior to being knocked out of the CL by Inter.

Schalke 04 2 – 1 Eintracht Fran…

http://www.footytube.com/video/Schalke-04-vs-Eintracht-Frankfurt-75801

Another defeat for Frankfurt but the win wasn’t enough to save coach Felix Magath who has been a dead man walking for some time. Frankfurt scored their first goal of the calendar year – from 73 yards. Yes, that’s right, 73 yards. Schalke super-keeper Manuel Neuer then redeemed himself with a driven clearance that set up the Royal Blues’ winner.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/mar/14/bayern-hamburg-s04-wolfsburg

“Frankfurt’s first goal of the calendar year has been a long time coming, in more than ways than one – 793 minutes of futile, fruitless football had passed when the left-back Georgios Tzavellas hoofed it up front for Theofanis Gekas deep in his own half. The ball missed everybody, however, including Manuel Neuer in the S04 goal, and bobbled in for the longest-distance goal in the history of the Bundesliga. Tzavellas’s unwitting record-strike from 73 metres was not enough for Michael Skibbe’s side to rescue a point in the Veltinsarena though. The Greek striker (and Rehhagel protege) Angelos Charisteas scored a late winner for the soon-to-be managerless Royal Blues.”

Kaiserslautern 2 – 1 Freiburg

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Kaiserslautern-vs-SC-Freiburg-75841

Another topsy turvy scoreline in a topsy turvy Bundesliga campaign.

Wolfsburg 1 – 2 Nürnberg

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfL-Wolfsburg-vs-1.-Nürnberg-75840

Nurnberg left it late to garner a win and a profit from the week. Wolves coach Littbarski looked even nearer to tears in the highlights. Not least as Wolfsburg had a perfectly good goal disallowed. Over the piece I think this was a lucky winner but in Germany it always pays to side with the good setpiece teams attacking-wise. So many goals are scored from balls pumped into the box.

Werder Bremen 1 – 1 Borussia M’gla…

http://vodpod.com/watch/5753226-werder-bremen-1-borussia-monchengladbach-1

Sun 13/03/11

Mainz 05 0 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-FSV-Mainz-05-vs-Bayer-Leverkusen-75874

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/mar/14/bayern-hamburg-s04-wolfsburg

“Leverkusen closed the gap on the leaders to nine points but needed a lazy mistake from the Mainz defender Bo Svensson to claim all three points. The Swedish Bo didn’t know … that Renato Augusto was lurking behind him and lost the ball to the Brazilian who smashed a shot into the roof of the net. Michael Ballack was back in the starting XI but was largely anonymous. The Leverkusen coach Jupp Heynckes, a contender to succeed Van Gaal at Munich, would not be drawn on his future.”

St. Pauli 1 – 2 Stuttgart

http://eurorivals.net/st-pauli:vfb-stuttgart-highlights-goals-video_20110313.html

Two bald men fighting over a comb. These teams could play again for the next three weeks and produce different results each week.

Results: Köln 4-0 Hannover, Bayern 6-0 Hamburg, Kaiserslautern 2-1 Freiburg, Wolfsburg 1-2 Nürnberg, Schalke 2-1 Frankfurt, Hoffenheim 1-0 Dortmund, Werder Bremen 1-1 Gladbach, Mainz 1-2 Leverkusen, St Pauli 1-2 Stuttgart.

Latest Bundesliga table

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 18/03/11

Borussia M’gla… 19 : 30 Kaiserslautern

Sat 19/03/11 Freiburg 14 : 30 Bayern München

Nürnberg 14 : 30 Werder Bremen

Hannover 96 14 : 30 Hoffenheim

Hamburger SV 14 : 30 Köln

Eintracht Fran… 14 : 30 St. Pauli

Borussia Dortmund 17 : 30 Mainz 05

Sun 20/03/11

Bayer Leverkusen 14 : 30 Schalke 04

Stuttgart 16 : 30 Wolfsburg

Bundesliga Research 10 march 2011

I am most keen on:

Shortlist:

Hannover 2/1 VC 0.5pt

Freiburg 12/5 VC, Bet365 0.5pt

Nurnberg 12/5 Unibet, William Hill 1pt

Mainz v Leverkusen Over 2.5 goals 10/11 William Hill 0.5pt

Mainz v Leverkusen Over 3.5 goals 9/4William Hill 0.5pt

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 04/03/11

Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Köln

http://www.footytube.com/video/Borussia-Dortmund-vs-1.-Köln-75162

This was just like the home game v Schalke all over again as Dortmund battered Rensing’s goal. How this one remained just 1-0 I will never know…

Sat 05/03/11

Hannover 96 3 – 1 Bayern München

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hannover-96-vs-Bayern-München-75299

Hannover cruelly exploited a high Bayern defensive line to take the lead. Despite surviving a strong penalty shout they ought to have been further ahead before they eventually added a second just after half time. It was more of the same before Robben offered Bayern a lifeline (2-1). However Kraft, in the Bayern goal, then made a hash of a Pinto rocket to make it 3-1 Hannover. Bayern rallied but their admittedly slim chances went with a red card for Breno. So, a typically feisty Hannover show on the break. Bayern continue to undo all their good expansive play with a porous defence and an increasingly isolated manager in Louis Van Gaal.

Stuttgart 1 – 0 Schalke 04

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfB-Stuttgart-vs-Schalke-04-75210

A Kuzmanovic penalty (and a harsh red card for handball for the visitors) settled this game 1-0. The season goes from bad to worse for Magath’s expensively assembled Schalke. Surely only an unlikely Champions League triumph can save the tough trainer’s job now. That is, if German press reports are to be believed.

Borussia M’gla… 2 – 0 Hoffenheim

http://eurorivals.net/borussia-monchengladbach:hoffenheim-highlights-goals-video_20110305.html

A rare clean sheet for a Monchengladbach side that show that they can be decent going forward but so often leak crazy goals.

Nürnberg 5 – 0 St. Pauli

http://eurorivals.net/fc-nurnberg:st-pauli-highlights-goals-video_20110305.html

This was as easy as the scoreline suggests. Nurnberg are still on the up. St Pauli remain as inconsistent as ever.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/mar/07/bayern-munich-louis-van-gaal-bundesliga

“Nuremberg’s 5-0 win over St Pauli has them dreaming of the Europa League and 45,000 fans stayed behind to celebrate the victory with the squad. The stand-in striker Christian Eigler was the man of the match with four goals but the whole team have excelled. “We need five more points to get to our second half of the season target,” said manager Dieter Hecking, “then we can deal with other topics.” In a season where the natural distinction between big and small clubs is rapidly vanishing, Nuremberg are about to spring the biggest surprise of all.”

Eintracht Fran… 0 – 0 Kaiserslautern

http://www.footytube.com/video/Eintracht-Frankfurt-vs-1.-Kaiserslautern-75398

That most unlikely of Bundesliga results – a bore draw 0-0.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/mar/07/bayern-munich-louis-van-gaal-bundesliga

“Eintracht Frankfurt’s unspeakably bad form since the winter break – not a single goal in eight games – has coach Michael Skibbe looking over his shoulder, too. The Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper felt that the goalless draw with Kaiserslautern was “the worst performance of the season and in many years”. The game was so poor that even the TV highlights package was unwatchable. “I’m sorry for looking clueless – I am not,” Skibbe said. This week’s trip to Schalke might be his last game in charge.”

Bayer Leverkusen 3 – 0 Wolfsburg

http://www.footytube.com/video/bayer-leverkusen-v-vfl-wolfsburg-75397?ref=wv_relbox

This game was won by half time thanks to a horror show by Wolfsburg keeper Benaglio (3-0 at the break). All smiles for Kiessling and co then – at least on the pitch.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/mar/07/bayern-munich-louis-van-gaal-bundesliga

“Bayer Leverkusen, easy 3-0 winners over the increasingly dishevelled Wolfsburg, experienced managerial trouble of a different sort. Jupp Heynckes’s continued refusal to sign a new contract – his deal expires in June – is now seen in a worrying light. The 65-year-old did not only crop up on the shortlist of possible Van Gaal successors but might also force Bayer into making an uncomfortable choice between his services and those of Michael Ballack.

The 34-year-old was hoping to get a chance to impress Germany manager Jogi Löw on Saturday but withdrew from the squad when Henyckes told him he would not start. According to the manager, Ballack argued he would be better off training instead.

The move did not go down well with his team-mates – Bayer had only four substitutes available – and the dispute threatens to overshadow Bayer’s excellent run in the league, where they are on course for a Champions League place.

“Heynckes, a man who values harmony, is unsure what to make of Ballack,” writes Kicker. “He has a problem with Ballack’s self-image and sees a danger to the peace and quiet he needs to work with his team.” Bild thinks the two parties are heading for a divorce.”

Sun 06/03/11

Freiburg 1 – 3 Werder Bremen

http://www.footytube.com/video/SC-Freiburg-vs-Werder-Bremen-75357

A late goal gave Bremen a slightly flattering 3-1 win here but at least now they can claim to have found some momentum. And that could prove crucial for this nominally quality-packed Werder Bremen side that just three points above second bottom Kaiserslautern (14th) in a tight relegation battle.

Hamburger SV 2 – 4 Mainz 05

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hamburger-SV-vs-1.-FSV-Mainz-05-75412

Justice was done here after Hamburg were gifted an opener that clearly didn’t cross the line. Mainz were ultimately on easy street though as they pulled away to win 4-2 courtesy of two sharp break-outs. The win was even more impressive as, for the visitors, there was no Miroslav Karhan, Ádám Szalai or Sami Allagui – all three ruled out through injury. As independent-minded as ever, Mainz boss Thomas Tuchel nonetheless still benched his key men Lewis Holtby and Christian Fuchs, making the result all the more surprising.

Results: Dortmund 1 Cologne 0; Stuttgart 0 Schalke 1; Eintracht Frankfurt 0 Kaiserslautern 0; Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 Hoffenheim 0; Hannover 3 Bayern Munich 1; Nuremberg 5 St Pauli 0; Bayer Leverkusen 3 Wolfsburg 0; Freiburg 1 Werder Bremen 3; Hamburg 2 Mainz 4.

Latest Bundesliga standings

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 11/03/11

Köln 19 : 30 Hannover 96

Hannover were mightily impressive in dismantling Bayern with a typically efficient counter-attacking game. This is an easier, if similar, task for Hannover – as long as they don’t suffer a reaction from the Bayern game. With that slight doubt, I will stake down here.

Hannover 2/1 VC 0.5pt

Sat 12/03/11

Hoffenheim 14 : 30 Borussia Dortmund

I always prefer Dortmund on the road and this is a game that, in theory, shouldn’t derail the title challenge. However the celebrations that followed the narrow win over Koln struck some alarm bells for me. I wonder if the team that celebrated like the champions in waiting they surely are, will take one eye off the ball this week. No bet.

Bayern München 14 : 30 Hamburger SV

Bayern are too short to back and too unreliable. Hamburg are simply too unreliable. No bet.

Schalke 04 14 : 30 Eintracht Fran…

In an ideal world, Schalke could be taken on here – especially so as Schalke are returning to Bundesliga duty from the Champions League. The problem is that if Eintracht are over reliant on their keeper, playmaker and striker Gekas. At the moment they seem under-committed and one dimensional. No bet.

Kaiserslautern 14 : 30 Freiburg

Freiburg are just about the value call here against a poor Kaiserslautern down in the relegation berths.

Freiburg 12/5 VC, Bet365 0.5pt

Wolfsburg 14 : 30 Nürnberg

The Wolves are no more compelling under Pierre Littbarski than they were under Steve McClaren. No wonder then that the little former winger always appears to be on the verge of tears. Nurnberg are one of the few form sides in a topsy-turvy league and they deserve to take their chance at 12/5 against more fashionable but unfanciable opponents.

Nurnberg 12/5 Unibet, William Hill 1pt

Werder Bremen 17 : 30 Borussia M’gla…

I am not convinced Werder Bremen are out of the woods yet and it would be no surprise to see the game defined by a visiting BM who are decent in possession but consistently leak goals. Both sides to score looks like an obvious play but is 4/6 (60%) a big enough quote? I need a second opinion on this one.

Sun 13/03/11

Mainz 05 14 : 30 Bayer Leverkusen

After Leverkusen let as down by shipping two goals in the final minutes v Werder Bremen, I am not inclined to consider what looks like a merely accurate away win price of around 13/10. More interesting perhaps are bets on over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals as both attacks could benefit from an open game on paper. Mainz can certainly hit front foot opponents on the break as they showed last week in their come from behind win over Hamburg. Leverkusen always look dangerous too when they can dictate terms from solid possession and that could mean goals and chances for both sides as the play swings punch and counter-punch.

Mainz v Leverkusen Over 2.5 goals 10/11 William Hill 0.5pt

Mainz v Leverkusen Over 3.5 goals 9/4William Hill 0.5pt

St. Pauli 16 : 30 Stuttgart

Goals are an interesting prospect in what looks in advance like the opposite of a nervy relegation battle. However there is little in the overs prices for 2.5 or 3.5 goals to get excited about. No bet.

I am most keen on:

Shortlist:

Hannover 2/1 VC 0.5pt

Freiburg 12/5 VC, Bet365 0.5pt

Nurnberg 12/5 Unibet, William Hill 1pt

Mainz v Leverkusen Over 2.5 goals 10/11 William Hill 0.5pt

Mainz v Leverkusen Over 3.5 goals 9/4William Hill 0.5pt

Bundesliga Research 24th February 2011

I am most keen on….

Shortlist

Borussia M’gla to bt Wolfsburg 15/4 Bet 365, VC, StanJames 0.5pt

Bayern München  v  Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals 2.79 (22/13) 32Red 0.5pt

Bayer Leverkusen to bt Werder Bremen 13/10 general 1pt
Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 18/02/11

Nürnberg 3 – 0 Eintracht Fran…
http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Nürnberg-vs-Eintracht-Frankfurt-73557

A tight game looked to be petering out at 1-0 until tired challenges and sloppiness from a beaten Frankfurt side, added two late goals and a scoreline with a whole lot of gloss on it. Frankfurt didn’t deserve anything much from the game but their effort alone was worthy of a more respectable scoreline.
Sat 19/02/11

Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 St. Pauli
http://www.footytube.com/video/Borussia-Dortmund-vs-FC-Sankt-Pauli-73624

Dortmund are back in form.

Media: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/feb/21/wolfsburg-steve-mcclaren-bundesliga

“Two draws in a row had suggested the faintest possibility of some last-minute bottling but Dortmund were back in the groove against St Pauli. Goals from Lucas Barrios and an own-goal from Ralph Gunesch put paid to doubts over Borussia’s finishing prowess. Asked about the high number of missed chances in the first 30 minutes, Jürgen Klopp smiled benignly. “Don’t worry, this highly emotional subject will be dealt with internally,” he said.”
Hannover 96 3 – 0 Kaiserslautern
http://www.footytube.com/video/Hannover-96-vs-1.-Kaiserslautern-73602

A typical Hannover home win with a setpiece goal and two opportunist breaks after forced Kaiserslautern errors in possession. Hannover make a little possession go such a long way – even where they are largely outplayed. As a result they are a hard side to weigh up and a tricky proposition to back. There ‘economical’ style of play will always make them appear lucky winners and as the cede possession willingly at times opponents will always have a chance against them.

Hoffenheim 1 – 1 Köln
http://www.footytube.com/video/Hoffenheim-vs-1.-Köln-73603

This ended neither one thing nor another for us. Koln were a little outplayed but Novakovic could have stolen our win at a big price. How we didn’t get the overs here I’ll never know as Hannover rattled the woodwork twice amidst a very open second half.

Freiburg 2 – 1 Wolfsburg
http://www.footytube.com/video/SC-Freiburg-vs-VfL-Wolfsburg-73646

The agony goes on for Wolfsburg. The ref missed a handball in the build-up to Freiburg’s equaliser. Cisse rubbed it in with a winner on the break, in typical Bundesliga fashion. Keeper Baumann performed heroics to keep Wolfsburg out.

Hamburger SV 4 – 0 Werder Bremen
http://www.footytube.com/video/Hamburger-SV-vs-Werder-Bremen-73625

Werder Bremen’s slide continues….this was a horror-show performance with each goal resulting from one or more individual errors. Hamburg looked good precisely because Werder Bremen made them look good.

Mainz 05 1 – 3 Bayern München
http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-FSV-Mainz-05-vs-Bayern-München-73697

Both sides contributed to a good, honest and open game where Bayern’s class ultimately told. Bayern look compelling offensively but still vulnerable at the back. As a result this was a straightforward overs shout for us.

Sun 20/02/11

Bayer Leverkusen 4 – 2 Stuttgart
http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayer-Leverkusen-vs-VfB-Stuttgart-73790

Plucky Stuttgart were ultimately overpowered by a strong home side. As in the Mainz v Bayern game, class and quality told in the end.
Borussia M’gla… 2 – 1 Schalke 04
http://www.footytube.com/video/Borussia-M’gladbach-vs-Schalke-04-73771

The latest in a procession of poor results for Schalke. BM demonstrated once again that they are well capable of scoring. If only the other departments in their side were as consistent then they would be safely in mid-table, rather than bottom, in a relegation dogfight.

Results: Nürnberg 3-0 Frankfurt, Hamburg 4-0 Bremen, Hannover 3-0 Kaiserslautern, Freiburg 2-1 Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim 1-1 Köln, Dortmund 2-0 St Pauli, Leverkusen 4-2 Stuttgart, Gladbach 2-1 Schalke

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 25/02/11

Wolfsburg  19 : 30  Borussia M’gla…

If anything Wolfsburg are playing even worse under Pierre Littbarski than they did under The Wally With the Brolly, Steve McClaren. In individual games you can point to bad luck or decisions going against a side but in general Wolfsburg’s position (15th in the table) and form (they come into the game on the back of four defeats) screams out that they are no odds on shot here. BM have scored at least once in their last six games. An away win at Mainz is a fair achievement as is a home win last time out v Schalke. The improving bottom side are worthy of a small interest in a game that may throw up opportunities in running to back both goals and the away side at a nice price. If the home side start well and take a lead there could also be the opportunity to safeguard your stake in running. In that scenario, I’d expect confidence in the home team to collapse.

Borussia M’gla to bt Wolfsburg 15/4 Bet 365, VC, StanJames 0.5pt
Sat 26/02/11

Kaiserslautern  14 : 30  Hamburger SV

In a week where most of the away sides boast a decent chance at the prices, Hamburg hold obvious appeal. It is a grim picture for Kaiserslautern bar that lucky draw versus Dortmund but while I reckon Hamburg can win this their results show that they barely put in two good back to back performances. I also feel that the 4-0 win over Bremen was so gift-wrapped as to be almost inadmissible as evidence of current form. Sure, wins bring confidence but complacent Hamburg could be due a slip-up. No Bet.

Hoffenheim  14 : 30  Mainz 05

If forced Mainz would be the obvious value call here. However, I just wonder if we could see a negative reaction on the back of a defeat to Bayern Munich (4-2). This game is a comedown after the giddy heights of a home game versus the Bavarians. No Bet.

Köln  14 : 30  Freiburg

This looks like a tough game to call between well-matched teams in terms of current form. No Bet.

St. Pauli  14 : 30  Hannover 96
Again, marginal preference is for the hustlers from Hannover but given the fact that the home side should, almost inevitably, see a lot of the ball then I’d probably want a bigger price. No Bet.

Schalke 04  14 : 30  Nürnberg

On the back of four straight wins, Nurnberg deserve to take their chance against a Schalke side that are still waiting for their season to start. However, I Schalke overcome Nurnberg in a January cup tie and although the game needed an extra time winner from Draxler, Schalke were ultimately worthy winners. A stroll down memory lane could be just what the doctor orders for Felix Magath’s ailing stars. I am tempted by the away win but like everyone else, I keep expecting Schalke to step up to the mark. The loss of Schieber for Nurnberg through injury is a blow to Nurnberg’s chances. Schieber, on loan from Stuttgart, has scored seven goals and set up another eight in Nuremberg’s fine run which has lifted them to eighth place after 23 games.
No Bet.

Bayern München  17 : 30  Borussia Dortmund

The rule of thumb when top teams clash is that things will stay tight but can a leopard, such as Bayern Munich, really change its spots? Bayern’s games are simply peppered with goals. Their last five have all gone over 3.5 goals with a cumulative total of 24 goals in those games. The reason is that Bayern are as bad at the back as they are compelling going forward with Robben, Ribery, Muller and Gomez to the fore. Dortmund too are an interesting case. Their counter attacking style is far from defensive but it is far better suited to road games. They have failed to score in just two of their last 15 road games and with Bayern forced to have a go (unlike other opponents looking for a ‘moral victory’ point) the likelihood of goals is also increased in this one off occasion. The interesting thing here is that over 2.5 goals is a prohibitively short 4/7 or so. However, we know from watching German games that – unlike in other countries – the gulf between three and four (or more) goals in a game is relatively small. Not least because this is a league of open games pitching quick attackers, and quick thinking attackers, against pedestrian defences. I think the context of this game favours an interest in a goal-fest at a fairly generous 2.79 (22/13).

Bayern München  v  Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals 2.79 (22/13) 32Red 0.5pt
Sun 27/02/11

Eintracht Fran…  14 : 30  Stuttgart

If they have anything about themselves at all Stuttgart should by pencilling in Sunday as the day they finally get their house in order and kick-start their season. However, as limited as Gekas-reliant Eintracht Frankfurt are, they were better than the 3-0 loss to Nurnberg suggests. Nurnberg were the better side but their opener came from a keeper howler and goals two and three within the last five minutes once Frankfurt had thrown in the towel. On paper this looks like a potential away win. In practice it could well turn out to be a classic contest of two bald men fighting over a comb. I reckon it is best left at the prices. No Bet.

Werder Bremen  16 : 30  Bayer Leverkusen   More info

Werder Bremen can’t defend and now the goals have dried up too. Leverkusen have recovered their composure and on the back of four straight wins they are probably a decent bet at 13/10 (43%) against a side with just six wins in 23 Bundesliga games this season.

Bayer Leverkusen to bt Werder Bremen 13/10 general 1pt
Shortlist

Borussia M’gla to bt Wolfsburg 15/4 Bet 365, VC, StanJames 0.5pt

Bayern München  v  Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals 2.79 (22/13) 32Red 0.5pt

Bayer Leverkusen to bt Werder Bremen 13/10 general 1pt

In profit last week. Current total 2.55pts….

Bundesliga 17th February

I am most keen on….

Shortlist:

Koln to bt Hoffenheim 7/2 VC, Boyles, Coral, William Hill 0.5pt

Hoffenheim v Koln over 2.5 goals 4/5 Coral 0.5pt

Mainz v Bayern over 2.5 goals 4/5 StanJames 1pt

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Sat 12/02/11

Stuttgart 1 – 4 Nürnberg

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfB-Stuttgart-vs-1.-Nürnberg-72871

Are Stuttgart and their team of internationals too good to go down? Not on this evidence. This was as comprehensive a win for Nurnberg as the score suggests and a nice 4/1 winner for us using the split stake strategy that I think is ideal for The Bundesliga (because of its low draw count and flaky favourites). Nurnberg have been knocking on the door of a decent win like this for weeks so, hats off to them. It has to be said every goal was conceded cheaply from a Stuttgart point of view.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/feb/14/stuttgart-bundesliga-raphael-honigstein

“Schieber, on loan at Nürnberg, had promised he would not celebrate a goal against his hometown club and looked positively uncomfortable after putting the visitors 2-0 up. “He laid on the floor as if struck down by melancholy,” wrote Süddeutsche Zeitung about the unusual sight in the partially rebuilt Mercedes-Benz Arena.

Six minutes after the interval, he set up Nürnberg’s third and decisive goal with a fine pass to Timothy Chandler. Schieber seemed even less happy and who could blame him? He was not just defeating his own club, he was plunging them into a full-blown existentialist crisis. “It was very difficult for me but I had to give everything for my current team,” he said later, by way of apology.

Stuttgart conceded a fourth (Mehmet Ekici, 62) and simply gave up. One of the wealthiest, most ambitious clubs in the Bundesliga are 17th in the table and the apocalyptic scenario of relegation looks a distinct possibility. A shocked Stuttgarter Nachrichten witnessed “signs of a downfall”: the team, they felt, were “unable to activate the self-preservation drive”. Chandler summed it up best. “We didn’t expect Stuttgart to be this bad,” the 20-year-old midfielder said.

VfB supporters, it is fair to say, are demanding and pretty inpatient at the best of times. These days, they do not know who to boo first. On Saturday they turned on Tasci, jeering him at every touch. It made a change from the traditional anti-board chants but did not exactly help matters. “We wanted [to win], but couldn’t,” was Bruno Labbadia’s attempt to explain the inexplicable capitulation.

At another club, the 45-year-old would be fearing the sack at this stage, but he is already the third coach of the season and probably their best. The odd tactical mistake or line-up mishap aside, there is little he could have done – the playing staff are simply unrecognisable.

“€8m man Zdravko Kuzmanovic is a pantomime footballer,” added Stuttgarter Nachrichten. “He’s always around but never quite there. Cristian Molinaro, an Italian international for a short time, seems like a kind of boy scout on an orientation walk. Matthieu Delpierre has the jumping power of an aircraft carrier and Tasci is about as mobile as a ticket booth.”

The sporting director, Fredi Bobic, can point to a storm of injuries, out-of-form key players (Delpierre, Cacau) and general loss of confidence – “we have mental problems”. But Stuttgart’s troubles surely go deeper. After winning the championship in 2007 with a young, exciting team, they have lost their way, skidding from one knee-jerk decision to the next and getting it all wrong in the transfer market.

Horst Heldt, now in an unidentified role at Schalke that seems to entail the rummaging through Felix Magath’s box of “funny” spectacles, is one of the main culprits. His list of flops is long and unsightly, like Lady Gaga’s decommissioned olfactory organ.

It was not a very good idea to let successive managers choose their favourite players and now Bobic has happily chipped in too. Getting the over-the-hill Mauro Camoranesi from Juventus was some kind of masterstroke. The 34-year-old’s contract was torn up after only seven disappointing experiences. Equally brilliant: Bobic jumped on the Shinji Kagawa bandwagon and signed Shinji Okazaki from Shimizu S-Pulse in January, but neglected to sort out the paperwork in time. Four games into the second half of the season, the striker is still sitting in the stands, waiting for Fifa clearance.

“If anything can save this team, it is their relegation battle rivals who are even worse,” wrote Stuttgarter Zeitung, with a vague sense of optimism. Somewhat worryingly, the players seem to buy into this “not bad enough to go down” line, too.

“It’s still in our hands,” said Tasci. “There are plenty of games left,” added Delpierre. It is a pity that the one VfB player who has truly adopted the necessary mind-set for a dog-fight against the drop cannot do anything for them. If he’s really unlucky, poor Julian Schieber might soon find himself in the wrong kind of title race, in the Second Division.

“I’m looking forward to his return in the summer,” said Bobic.”

Schalke 04 1 – 0 Freiburg

http://www.footytube.com/video/Schalke-04-vs-SC-Freiburg-73081

The narrowness of the victory margin should not deny the obvious truth that Schalke were very comfortable winners, despite passing up hatfuls of chances. Freiburg contributed nothing of substance losing us our speculative 0.5pt

St. Pauli 3 – 1 Borussia M’gla…

http://eurorivals.net/st-pauli:borussia-monchengladbach-highlights-goals-video_20110212.html

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/feb/14/stuttgart-bundesliga-raphael-honigstein

“It’s the award season and Matthias – no relation to Mad Jens – Lehmann got in on the act(ing). The St Pauli midfielder made out he was hit by Igor de Camargo’s hint of a head-butt, fell to the floor and got Gladbach’s Brazilian midfielder sent off. Against the 10-man visitors, St Pauli managed to turn the game around and win 3-1. “It’s his problem,” said Lehmann after the final whistle. “I’d be stupid if I didn’t accept such a gift. Why should I not go to ground when we’re 0-1 down?” It’s the kind of honesty that may yet get him into trouble with the German FA but any retrospective punishment will come to late for De Camargo (one-match ban) and the manager Michael Frontzeck (sacked on Sunday). The Swiss coach Lucien Favre will be entrusted to save the Foals from relegation. It’s an interesting appointment. In his last job, he took Hertha BSC down.”

Bayern München  4 – 0  Hoffenheim

http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayern-München-vs-Hoffenheim-72862

One up inside two minutes the game was over in 15 minutes at 2-0. Robben added two wondergoals for good measure.

Wolfsburg 0 – 1 Hamburger SV

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfL-Wolfsburg-vs-Hamburger-SV-72863

It took a penalty but Hamburg deserved their victory.

Eintracht Fran… 0 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen

http://www.footytube.com/video/Eintracht-Frankfurt-vs-Bayer-Leverkusen-72995

An easy enough win for Leverkusen. Eintracht Frankfurt looked like a one man team here (Gekas) as opposed to the usual three man team of Gekas, Nikolov and Schwegler. After their stellar start to the season Franfurt are looking very sloppy.

Kaiserslautern 1 – 1 Borussia Dortmund

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Kaiserslautern-vs-Borussia-Dortmund-72911

Two great goals but when Dortmund went ahead in 81 minutes it looked as though our stake was safe at least. However the game turned on a red card for Subotic and Kaiserslautern scored a fine equaliser at the death. A point loss for us here.

Sun 13/02/11

Köln 4 – 2 Mainz 05

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Köln-vs-1.-FSV-Mainz-05-73082

The 4-2 final score made a nonsense of an odds against over 2.5 goals price, A good way to end the week betting wise.

Werder Bremen 1 – 1 Hannover 96

http://www.footytube.com/video/Werder-Bremen-vs-Hannover-96-73128

Honours even in a bad tempered game. Hannover made much of very little, Werder made little of a lot. A typical week for these two then….

Wed 16/02/11

Hamburger SV0 – 1FC Sankt Pauli http://rutube.ru/player.swf?buffer_first=1.0&file=http%3A%2F%2Fbl.rutube.ru%2Fbc9f7eb0540536d7c46e6b6295ad74c9.iflv&xurl=http%3A%2F%2Frutube.ru%2Ftrackinfo%2Fbc9f7eb0540536d7c46e6b6295ad74c9.html&hash=bc9f7eb0540536d7c46e6b6295ad74c9&&referer=http://bundesliga-fussball.blogspot.com/

HSV looked to be rather unlucky losers in the Hamburg city derby v St Pauli.

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 18/02/11

Nürnberg  3 : 0  Eintracht Fran…

If you followed my intention of betting overs and Nurnberg you’d have landed both. Nurnberg huffed and puffed a bit and the two late goals corresponded to a failure of the BetFair stream. Chances are we got a slice of luck here.

Sat 19/02/11

Hamburger SV  14 : 30  Werder Bremen

Hamburg could kick on from two wins in a week but they are an unreliable side with a primadonna air about them. I don’t think the 11/10 price is anything special and I keep expecting Werder Bremen to surprise us with a performance. The loss of Pizzaro is a big blow to Bremen too. Nonetheless, no bet.

Freiburg  14 : 30  Wolfsburg

Freiburg showed nothing last time out and Wolfsburg have shown nothing for months. Steve McClaren’s exit could effect a change of form but really,this game could be anything. No Bet.

Hoffenheim  14 : 30  Köln

Hoffenheim were lashed by Bayern last time and improving Koln, fresh from that 4-2 win at home to Mainz look to be in amongst the goals (at both ends). I like the look of Koln at 7/2 and over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Koln to bt Hoffenheim 7/2 VC, Boyles, Coral, William Hill 0.5pt

Hoffenheim v Koln over 2.5 goals 4/5 Coral 0.5pt

Hannover 96  14 : 30  Kaiserslautern

Everything points to a home win here but amidst the dross of their results wins over Bayern and Nurnberg and last week’s draw v Dortmund look ominous. Inconsistent Kaiserslautern certainly are but that doesn’t make me want to follow in a few people tipping Hannover. No Bet.

Borussia Dortmund  14 : 30  St. Pauli

I won’t be stung again by Dortmund just yet – especially at such a short price. I can’t see anything other than a home win realistically but this is a swerve. No Bet.

Mainz 05  17 : 30  Bayern München

Bayern have seen 24 goals scored in their last five games, Mainz were thrashed 4-2 by Koln last time out. I think there is way more than a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals in this game so StanJames are taking a chance with their 4/5 quote. This game features weak defenders and Ribery and Robben, who is simply flying right now.

Mainz v Bayern over 2.5 goals 4/5 StanJames

Sun 20/02/11

Bayer Leverkusen  14 : 30  Stuttgart

This looks like a home win but Stuttgart need desperate measures currently in their desire to avoid relegation. I can’t get excited at the prices at all. No Bet.

Borussia M’gla…  16 : 30  Schalke 04   More info

BM are a big price but surely lightning won’t strike two weeks running for them as a side that concede too often. Schalke dominated Freiburg but the final score was just 1-0. You can make a case for all three results convincingly but without any real confidence. No Bet

Shortlist:

Koln to bt Hoffenheim 7/2 VC, Boyles, Coral, William Hill 0.5pt

Hoffenheim v Koln over 2.5 goals 4/5 Coral 0.5pt

Mainz v Bayern over 2.5 goals 4/5 StanJames

Bundesliga Research 3rd Jan 2011

A tricky week last week and this one looks tough too. I am keeping it cagy again here.

I am most keen on:

Dortmund -1 Asian Handicap v Schalke at 41/40 Bet 365

Over 3.5 goals Koln v Bayern 6/4 StanJames, PaddyPower, William Hill

Need a second opinion….

On 0.6pt on Stuttgart at 6/4 (general) and 0.4pt on B Monchengladbach at 15/8. Need a second opinion….

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 28/01/11

Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 0 Hannover 96

http://www.caughtoffside.com/2011/01/29/bayer-leverkusen-2-0-hannover-bundesliga-highlights-video/

A very accomplished home win where Kiessling was superb and the final score could have been greater in Leverkusen’s favour.

Sat 29/01/11

St. Pauli 3 – 0 Köln

http://www.mysoccerplace.net/video/st-pauli-vs-koln-30-highlights

Koln were 3-0 winners last time out well beaten losers 3-0 this time. St Pauli are generally no great shakes and this merely confirms the sense that Koln are wholly unreliable for now. Takyi took his two goals well for St Pauli but he wasn’t given the chance to complete his hatrick from the spot. This appears to have been St Pauli’s best showing of the season.

Schalke 04 0 – 1 Hoffenheim

http://www.caughtoffside.com/2010/09/11/hoffenheim-2-0-schalke-bundesliga-highlights-video/

One nil to Hoffenheim but in a game where Goran from www.goranswinners.com tells me Schalke were very poor, it apparently could have been many more. Goran says that some of the Schalke defending with their kamikaze high line, deserved an 18 certificate. The bad news for us is that the defeat cost us our bet. Schalke, indeed most German sides, currently can’t be trusted at short odds. The value either lies with outsiders or favourites to win by more than one goal, where they do win.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/jan/31/bundesliga-raphael-honigstein-st-pauli

“Isaac Vorsah’s header after four minutes sealed the win for 1899. Schalke manager Felix Magath was at a loss to explain his side’s utter passivity but fought back by treating the last few hours of the transfer window as an episode of Supermarket Sweep: the arrivals of Ghana midfielder Anthony Annan (Rosenborg Trondheim), Brazilian defender Danilo Avelar (Karpaty Lviv) and Greek striker Angelos Charisteas were, ahem, sensationally followed by former Bayern reject Ali Karimi, who’s now been bought by Magath for a second time. At this pace, Harry Redknapp’s historic record from his time at West Ham – 143 players bought and sold in seven seasons – won’t survive August.”

Nürnberg 2 – 0 Hamburger SV

http://eurorivals.net/fc-nurnberg:hsv-highlights-goals-video_20110129.html

Another game where it is hard to find decent highlights. This is probably the one that got away last week. I said Nurnberg have been unlucky in recent games and lazy Hamburg have been phoning in their performances. It all fell right at last for the home side. Perhaps they can build on this result.

Wolfsburg 0 – 3 Borussia Dortmund

http://www.videohighlights.net/29012011-wolfsburg-borussia-dortmund-bundesliga/

Another dynamic, incisive away win for irresistible Borussia Dortmund. Wolfsburg were simply blown away.

Werder Bremen 1 – 3 Bayern München

http://www.videohighlights.net/29012011-werder-bremen-bayern-munich-bundesliga/

As it says in the summary within the highlights: “Per Mertesacker proved the unlikely goal-scorer to break the ice in the match between Werder and Bayern, the home centre half collecting a free-kick at the back post and threading a lovely shot into the opposite corner. Arjen Robben soon pulled Bayern level as his threw himself into a left wing cross to bring the Bavarians back into the match, and then Per Mertesacker turned from hero to zero as he diverted a cross into his own net. Miroslav Klose sealed the away win rolling the ball into an empty net after Muller had bravely burst through the middle of the Bremen backline.”

Another Arjen Robben show….another shocker from Silvestre (see the third Bayern goal).

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/jan/31/bundesliga-raphael-honigstein-st-pauli

“Arjen Robben did what he does best on Saturday: he went straight for the jugular. Unfortunately for Thomas Müller, the victim of the Dutchman’s attack, the final whistle had long gone by that stage. Bayern won 3-1 away to Werder Bremen after going 1-0 down in the 47th minute but Robben, scorer of the equaliser, was unhappy. Müller had enraged him with dismissive gestures and complaints during the game, when the 27-year-old had, as usual, chosen the selfish, less promising option a good few times too often. “I hate that,” said Robben, who appeared to squeeze Müller’s throat in decidedly unfriendly fashion on the pitch. The matter seems now resolved.”

Kaiserslautern 0 – 1 Mainz 05

http://www.livefootballtvs.com/bundesliga/kaiserslautern-mainz-05-29012011.html

Frustratingly, precious few clues in match reports or highlights herein. Holtby scored the winner in the derby…and our second bet went down. Mainz only wins in the previous ten had come against markedly poor opponents in St Pauli, Borussia Moenchengladbach and Nurnberg (where they scored three times from just four shots on target). I said: “Mainz are the better side here judged on their best form but there isn’t much to like in their recent showings. The home side get the vote.” I reckon it was a game best left now…

Sun 30/01/11

Stuttgart 0 – 1 Freiburg

http://www.matchhighlight.com/bundes-liga/stuttgart-0-1-freiburg/

Stuttgart had the chances and possession to win this but Freiburg won this with a wonderful passing goal finished by Flum. Stuttgart are second bottom and bang in trouble. Martin Harnik missed an open goal in the 90th minute when it looked easier to equalise for Stuttgart.

Eintracht Fran… 0 – 1 Borussia M’gla…

http://www.soccerlivematches.com/highlights/eintracht-frankfurt-vs-borussia-monchengladbach-highlights

BM’s win wasn’t wholly a surprise but they can’t really be trusted either – especially without the American midfielder Bradley. Frankfurt dominated the first period especially and can count themselves unlucky not to have been ahead at the break. The pattern continued in the second half, but BM were notable for being intermittently dangerous on  the counter attack. This is how they found their winner through Igor De Camargo but it has to be said, what a terrible effort from the goalkeeper to keep the shot out.

Results: Leverkusen 2–0 Hannover, Nürnberg 2–0 Hamburg, Bremen 1–3 Bayern, Schalke 0-1 Hoffenheim, Wolfsburg 0–3 Dortmund, St. Pauli 3–0 Köln, Kaiserslautern 0–1 Mainz , Stuttgart 0–1 Freiburg, Frankfurt 0–1 Gladbach.

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 04/02/11

Borussia Dortmund  19 : 30  Schalke 04

This could be a similar game to the post Christmas opener v Leverkusen. Borussia Dortmund were irresistible that night and clearly well up for the game. A similar ‘big game’ performance could see Dortmund run out comfortable winners. There are two things I don’t like about the game. Firstly, a measly home win price of 5/8 against opponents with talented players, and notable big game players, in their ranks. I’d secondly, also prefer Dortmund as an away side in this fixture because the likely price and context of the game would likely favour Dortmund more. I am looking at an Asian Handicap bet of Dortmund -1 at 41/40 with Bet 365, with the stake returned for a one goal win.

Dortmund -1 Asian Handicap at 41/40 Bet 365

Sat 05/02/11

Köln  14 : 30  Bayern München

The only possible bet in this game is for goals. Over 2.5 is too short at around 4/7, perhaps over 3.5 at 6/4 offers greater appeal. Both teams can concede and score with equal aplomb and only one of Bayern’s last five Bundesliga games has seen under 2.5 goals (1-1 with Wolfsburg). The others have been 3-1 v Bremen, 5-1 v Kaiserslautern and 5-3 v Stuttgart. If anything the return of the peerless Robben to Bayern’s ranks has to be factored in as another indicator of likely goals.

Over 3.5 goals Koln v Bayern 6/4 StanJames, PaddyPower, William Hill

Mainz 05  14 : 30  Werder Bremen

I just don’t like the prices in this game and though I expect Werder Bremen to concede (I always expect Bremen to concede) I can’t see a way into the game at all. No Bet

Nürnberg  14 : 30  Bayer Leverkusen

I think Bayer Leverkusen are likely winners but Nurnberg got their morale boosting win over Hamburg last week. I also think Nurnberg are better than their bare form but it is a tough ask to beat Leverkusen. There is no angle on the prices here either. No Bet

Hannover 96  14 : 30  Wolfsburg

The prices look right in a game between two sides that were well beaten last time out. Both also lost to nil last time. The Bundesliga doesn’t do many draws but both sides would settle for a point here as they look to steady the ship. That said, that just isn’t the German mentality and stalemates tend to happen more by accident than by design in The Bundesliga. No Bet

Hoffenheim  14 : 30  Kaiserslautern

I have no view here really. Kaiserslautern are overpriced but wholly unreliable. No Bet.

Borussia M’gla…  17 : 30  Stuttgart

If Stuttgart are going to right themselves and avoid relegation then they must beat their relegation rivals. Looking at the line-ups blind of context, you’d want to be with Stuttgart and their side packed full of internationals but it hasn’t really happened yet for them – and the sands of time are ebbing away. I’d probably like to lay the draw here as I think the first goal could seriously damage the team that concedes. A split stake could reflect a slight preference for the illustrious, underachieving visitors.

Looking at 0.6pt on Stuttgart at 6/4 (general) and 0.4pt on B Monchengladbach at 15/8. Need a second opinion….

Sun 06/02/11

Hamburger SV  14 : 30  St. Pauli

The Hamburg derby, and after St Pauli’s best performance of the season v Koln the only bet in the game is the visitors at 5/1. The problem is that I have seen nothing from St Pauli to make me think that last week’s wonder show was probably a one off. No Bet.

Freiburg  16 : 30  Eintracht Fran…

Freiburg would be a slight preference but they are too short at 6/5 to appeal too much. No Bet

I am most keen on:

Dortmund -1 Asian Handicap v Schalke at 41/40 Bet 365

Over 3.5 goals Koln v Bayern 6/4 StanJames, PaddyPower, William Hill

Need a second opinion….

On 0.6pt on Stuttgart at 6/4 (general) and 0.4pt on B Monchengladbach at 15/8. Need a second opinion….

Bundesliga 28th January 2011

A very tough looking card this week. We lost our two bets last week and were maybe a bit unlucky not to land either one of them. I am keeping it cagy this week again….

Shortlist:

I am most keen on:

Schalke to bt Hoffenheim 8/11 (general).

Kaiserslautern to bt Mainz 13/10 StanJames

Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund Second opinion required

Eintracht F v Borussia Monchengladbach Second opinion required

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 21/01/11

Hamburger SV 1 – 0 Eintracht Fran…

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hamburger-SV-vs-Eintracht-Frankfurt-70909

A poor game won by Petric’s 64th minute goal. I remain unconvinced of either side’s credentials. Van Nistelrooy’s body language speaks volumes, EF look toothless if Gekas isn’t scoring.

Sat 22/01/11

Bayern München 5 – 1 Kaiserslautern

http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayern-München-vs-1.-Kaiserslautern-71006

Goran Trepevski, the former Malmo and Sweden U21 player and now founder of www.goranswinners.com calls Bayern Munich FC Robben. It is fair to say he has a point….

Don’t be fooled by Gomez’s hatrick here. The big striker is a bully, saving his best stuff for points in games where Bayern are already well ahead. It is worth underlining that Gomez missed a number of good chances at 0-0 and he can’t be relied on to deliver under pressure. Neither can a Bayern defence who once more failed to keep a clean sheet. Robben’s opener and virtuoso show here paved the way for a win that Bayern’s chances probably merited. Indeed, with clinical finishing they might have hit double figures.

Freiburg 1 – 1 Nürnberg

http://www.footytube.com/video/SC-Freiburg-vs-1.-Nürnberg-70982

Without the prolific Cisse, Freiburg are an unattractive proposition betting-wise. The home side took the lead here but Nurnberg, who have been playing better than their results recently, equalized in the second half and will feel they had the chances to win the game. For Freiburg, they were largely confined to a few half chances and scraps. That’s unsurprising really, given their reliance on Cisse as a focal point for all their play.

Mainz 05 0 – 1 Wolfsburg

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-FSV-Mainz-05-vs-VfL-Wolfsburg-70960

Steve McClaren’s Wolves shaded an even contest with  a setpiece goal from defender Simon Kjaer. There’s nothing much else to report other than a series of hefty challenges and clumsy falls. Mainz keeper Muller dislocated a finger which may have inhibited him as he came to punch Diego’s freekick that led to Kjaer’s winner.

Borussia Dortmund 1 – 1 Stuttgart

http://www.footytube.com/video/Borussia-Dortmund-vs-VfB-Stuttgart-71025

Dortmund battled to break down Stuttgart but failed to add a second passing up a series of gilt-edged chances. You can guess the rest…Stuttgart caught Dortmund cold with a breakaway to equalise. Stuttgart’s point though, was barely deserved.

Media: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/jan/24/matthias-sammer-bundesliga-raphael-honigstein

“The Dortmund players couldn’t hide their disappointment about conceding an 84th-minute equaliser against Stuttgart in a match they seemed to have won many times over. Mario Götze’s opener was followed by a typical deluge of attacking football that had two snags: Dortmund missed one chance after the other and forgot to shut up shop. “Playing this openly was a major tactical mistake,” said Mats Hummels. VfB’s Russian striker Pavel Pogrebnyak snatched a lucky if not undeserved draw at the death. “We didn’t do enough to win today,” said Jürgen Klopp. Or perhaps they did too much? In any case, they’re still 11 points clear at the top, a gap big enough to draw a few more games. “If anybody is put off balance by this, they didn’t have it to begin with,” said Klopp.”

Hannover 96 0 – 1 Schalke 04

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hannover-96-vs-Schalke-04-70997

A bit of a surprise to see Schalke scrape through at home here and also that we didn’t get our overs bet up. Unfortunately though, the highlights tell us very little here.

Köln 3 – 0 Werder Bremen

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Köln-vs-Werder-Bremen-70985

Köln moved the ball quickly and ripped apart a sluggish, sloppy Werder defence for whom Silvestre was again a villain. We got that bit right but sadly Werder couldn’t get into the game to score, which is a major surprise, despite the fact we had them pegged to both concede and score here.

Media: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/jan/24/matthias-sammer-bundesliga-raphael-honigstein

“Köln’s emphatic 3-0 win over catastrophic Werder was the result of the weekend and easily the best performance of the season from Frank Schaefer’s team. Even Lukas Podolski was excellent in the No10 position: two goals raised his tally to seven.”

Sun 23/01/11

Borussia M’gla… 1 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen

http://eurorivals.net/borussia-monchengladbach:bayer-leverkusen-highlights-goals-video_20110123.html

Four great goals including a Van Basten-style volley from Borussia’s Stranzl. This was the Castro show however, creating a comfortable Leverkusen win. However it may not have been so easy had BM taken one of two goal line chances that directly preceded the breakaway for Castro’s clinching third goal.

Hoffenheim 2 – 2 St. Pauli

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xgp4h8_hoffenheim-2-2-st-pauli_sport

A game of two halves here with St Pauli going on to dominate after Hoffenheim started well. Poor defending from Vorsah gifted the visitors two goals and Hoffenheim got a big slice of luck with a wicked deflection for their late, late equaliser, which was largely undeserved.

Results: Hamburg 1–0 Frankfurt, Bayern 5–1 Kaiserslautern, Dortmund 1–1 Stuttgart, Mainz 0–1 Wolfsburg, Freiburg 1–1 Nürnberg, Hannover 0–1 Schalke, Köln 3–0 Bremen, Gladbach 1–3 Leverkusen, Hoffenheim 2–2 St Pauli.

• Latest Bundesliga standings

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 28/01/11

Bayer Leverkusen  19 : 30  Hannover 96

Verdict:   I don’t see anything in the pre-match prices to get too excited about. However I do think the game is of interest as an in running betting proposition. I’d certainly be happy to take a view on over 2.5 goals (in principle) if the game is 0-0 after 30 minutes and the price has drifted high. Typically, games in Germany are stuffy at 0-0 and turn like basketball as soon as a goal is scored and both teams go at it hammer and tongs. The same also applies to backing Leverkusen in running. They are likely winners in the game but far too short to back at 4/7.

I’ll leave it to your discretion if you are watching the game.

Sat 29/01/11

Werder Bremen  14 : 30  Bayern München

Verdict:   Bayern have both scored and conceded in four of their last five games in the Bundesliga, confirming the impression that they are a pantomime horse of a team. The handsome attacking movement of FC Robben bears no relation to an ugly back division with a penchant for conceding horrible goals through individual errors. Unfortunately, neither over 2.5 and both teams to score is plausible as both are around 8/15 each. And that is too short to get involved. If pushed I think Bayern will win but I’ll take a watching brief at 8/11 (57% win chance). Not least because W Bremen are something of a bogey team for Munich.

Wolfsburg  14 : 30  Borussia Dortmund

Verdict:  Dortmund won the reverse fixture 2-0 in September and we should probably consider them an even better proposition on the road. Wolfsburg were unimpressive in a 1-0 win over Mainz while Dortmund were left wondering why they didn’t gain three points from a dominating performance over Stuttgart. Nursing a sense of indignation I expect Dortmund to win this one. I marginally prefer flamboyant Dortmund (-0.75) on the Asians at 21/20 to a straight win at 5/6 but this is one for the pools panel. I’d like a second opinion from the Euro bets team on this game please.

Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund Second opinion required

Nürnberg  14 : 30  Hamburger SV

Verdict: I don’t like Hamburg as an away side despite recent away wins over Schalke and Borussia Monchengladbach. There is uncertainty over the manager and sporting director roles and speculation that the morose Van Nistelrooy will be off to pastures new. If he is not, he could be an even more sorry for himself presence than usual today as reality dawns. Nurnberg’s performances are better than their results but three home defeats in five (BM, Dortmund, Kaiserslautern) suggests they are soft touches at times – although the Dortmund result, carries no shame, and should be factored out of the equation for now. Nurnberg are the value call as HSV’s name alone ensures they are always overrated. However, Nurnberg are also one of those unlucky sides that never seem to get their just desserts in games. They are the preferred option but I can’t bring myself to support such an unreliable lot – especially so, after extra time v Schalke in midweek. No Bet.

Schalke 04  14 : 30  Hoffenheim

Verdict:   Schalke have had four solid wins to nil at home prior to defeat by Hamburg (1-0). Raul especially excels at home where his lack of acceleration isn’t such an issue because his side have so much more of the play and can build up without recourse to counter attacks, playing neat stuff in and around the box. Hoffenheim are nine games without an away Bundesliga win. Hoffenheim were also lucky to claim a point at home to St Pauli with the aid of a deflection and if they defend as poorly this weekend again they really ought to be punished. I think Schalke are solid at 8/11 (general) as a home proposition. New Hoffenheim signing Ryan Babel could make his first Bundesliga appearance – as a centre forward – due to injuries.

Schalke to bt Hoffenheim 8/11 (general).

St. Pauli  14 : 30  Köln

Verdict:  I don’t think either side can be trusted here to put in a performance and you can make a case for either side as a result. If pushed I’d side with Koln, purely as a price call. They put in their best showing of the season last time out but that doesn’t mean they will match that level again. No bet.

Kaiserslautern  17 : 30  Mainz 05

Verdict: Kaiserslautern aren’t great but they do look to be improving, albeit marginally, after a poor start and they can probably be excused their drubbing at the hands of Bayern last weekend (5-1) as it is the kind of defeat Bayern will routinely administer on a good day. Mainz have no-one of the calibre of Arjen Robben that is for sure. Few teams do. Mainz boast just one win in five (relegation zone St Pauli 4-2), suggesting their season is now regressing to the mean after a period of over-performance. Their only wins in the last ten have come against markedly poor opponents in St Pauli, Borussia Moenchengladbach and Nurnberg (where they scored three times from just four shots on target). Home advantage could just shade it for Kaiserslautern. Mainz are the better side here judged on their best form but there isn’t much to like in their recent showings. The home side get the vote.

Kaiserslautern to bt Mainz 13/10 StanJames

Sun 30/01/11

Stuttgart  14 : 30  Freiburg

Verdict:  Freiburg got eight men out off their treatment room this week but as long as Papis Cisse remains on the missing list it is hard to fancy the Breisgau. Stuttgart are, no question, in a relegation fight for now but the signs are better after four games without defeat. However, Stuttgart are 17th in the table for a reason and that makes them unbackable at a very short 6/10. No Bet.

Eintracht Fran…  16 : 30  Borussia M’gla…

Verdict:    Borussia Moenchengladbach were not disgraced against Leverkusen last week, but they were ultimately outclassed in a 3-1 loss. Die Fohlen are now six points from safety, and appear destined for a return to the second tier. Key midfielder Michael Bradley appears to be thinking as much because the USA international looks to be on his way to Galatasary. I am no fan of EF either, a team of three key men (keeper, playmaker, striker) and little more. Frankfurt lost again last week (at Hamburg), extending their run to three defeats from their last four games in all competitions. The Adler are now in mid-table, their usual habitat. With reality settling in complacency may be near at hand too. I’d like to oppose Frankfurt but BM are bottom of the league because they lack quality throughout their ranks. Again I’d like a second opinion….

Eintracht F v Borussia Monchengladbach Second opinion required

Shortlist:

I am most keen on:

Schalke to bt Hoffenheim 8/11 (general).

Kaiserslautern to bt Mainz 13/10 StanJames

Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund Second opinion required

Eintracht F v Borussia Monchengladbach Second opinion required

We had another profitable weekend last weekend thanks to two correct calls in the top of the table clash between Leverkusen and Dortmund. Elsewhere, as you can see for yourself in the highlights, we had two unlucky losers on Saturday at nice big prices. In another league I might be tempted to cover the draw for a bit of insurance in a handicap but, however, The Bundesliga’s style of play is so specific that there is rarely any value in backing a draw as part of an Asian line. We took a profit of 0.77pts from our four bets last weekend. The account currently stands in profit to 4.40pts from 14pts staked so far (spreadsheet attached).

Bundesliga 21st Jan 2010

This week I am most keen on:

Hannover v Schalke over 2.5 goals 10/11 William Hill, Coral

Köln v Werder Bremen Both sides to score 4/6 BlueSquare

Mentions:

Borussia Dortmund (8/15) are a possible bet (probably in a double).

Second opinion needed: Bayer Leverkusen 10/11 v Borussia Moenchengladbach.

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 14/01/11

Bayer Leverkusen 1 – 3 Borussia Dortmund

http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayer-Leverkusen-vs-Borussia-Dortmund-70203

Ultimately, Dortmund made a nonsense of their odds (2/1+) and won here like warm order favourites. The key was a typical juggernaut Dortmund second half and a side packed with collectively quicker bodies and minds. The game was settled by three opportunist, but emphatic, goals. Kiessling added a brave late consolation goal to settle our second bet in this game (both teams to score). Dortmund march on in a game where teen star Mario Götze was so flamboyant that he was substituted to prevent him copping a retaliatory injury from a humiliated opponent.

Sat 15/01/11

Stuttgart 1 – 0 Mainz 05

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfB-Stuttgart-vs-1.-FSV-Mainz-05-70335

Stuttgart may have boasted nine internationals here, in their starting XI, yet they still stumbled on like the 17th placed side they were at kick-off. Mainz, inspired by Holtby, certainly enjoyed the lion’s share of chances and will feel hard done by not to claim three points from a game where the more adventurous away side were punished for a lack of cutting edge. So far, notices of Stuttgart’s imminent improvement have been exaggerated and only a strong intervention by their ‘Super Joker’ Martin Harnik puts a gloss on their performance. We were on the right team, in Mainz, here but we didn’t get the rub of the green in front of goal. Had we had that, I am sure the result would have been different.

St. Pauli 2 – 2 Freiburg

http://www.goalsarena.com/video/germany-bundesliga/15-01-2011-st.-pauli-freiburg_en.html

I suggested in my preview that Freiburg’s Cisse, back in the side, could have the defining role in this game. There have rarely been more prophetic words written. Cisse scored twice, effected a cool goal line clearance under pressure and missed an early spot kick. That miss, from a penalty had Cisse also won by drawing a handball foul in the box, would have put Freiburg one up and sent us on our way at another big price. Instead we had to settle for a frustrating 2-2 draw.

Nürnberg 0 – 1 Borussia M’gla…

http://www.socceroverthere.com/?p=3854

Nurnberg missed one of four unconverted penalties on the Bundesliga card and also had good goal disallowed. Earlier Borussia Monchengladbach confirmed their attacking qualities with a goal laid on by the reinvigorated Mike Hanke. After that though, the bottom of the league side were left hanging on for their, just about unjust, three points.

Werder Bremen 2 – 1 Hoffenheim

http://www.footytube.com/video/Werder-Bremen-vs-Hoffenheim-70281

With wunderkind Marko Marin benched, Werder Bremen ran out worthy winners in a typically incident packed game full of chances (that fell primarily for Bremen).

Wolfsburg 1 – 1 Bayern München

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfL-Wolfsburg-vs-Bayern-München-70334

Bayern should have been out of sight before they had to rely on teenage keeper Thomas Kraft to bail them out. But the young stopper could do nothing to prevent The Wolves late leveller that keeps boss Steve McClaren battling on. This was another game of two missed penalties (one a piece) and a correct offside decision that denied Bayern a late winner. It was also another game where Bayern dominated but failed to force home their advantage. Ribery also picked up an injury that should keep him on the sidelines for an estimated 10 days.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/jan/17/borussia-dortmund-title

“The penalty miss kind of summed up Bayern’s afternoon at the Volkswagen-Arena: they dominated proceedings, took the lead – Thomas Müller managed to get his leg into the way of a Diego Benaglio clearance – but once again failed to kill off lesser opponents. An untimely attempt at a Zidane turn from Bastian Schweinsteiger in his own penalty box led to Sascha Riether’s 85th-minute equaliser. The point will buy Steve McClaren a bit more time but was not enough for the champions to keep up any pretensions of catching Dortmund. “We have to accept and respect what they’re doing,” said Arjen Robben, the happiest Bayern player after coming through his comeback on the awful pitch unscathed. Franck Ribéry was less fortunate. His knee injury, however, turned out to be a lot less severe than anticipated: he should be back in training in 10 days’ time.”

http://www.bundesligatalk.com/

“Robben can’t do it all. While the possession stats show that Bayern Munich had more of the ball, watching the game didn’t give you that impression. It seemed that the only time Bayern were really eating up possession or pitch was when Robben had the ball. He was the only one for Bayern that was really having a go at the Wolfsburg defence. Granted they lost Ribery early, but there is still enough talent that they should have more in attack. If your only link between the rest of the outfield and the forwards in one player then you are obviously easy to defend. And that seems to be something that van Gaal must focus on.”

“Dzeko’s departure may well pay dividends. McClaren wants a 4–3-3. Dzeko demanded a 4–4-2. A manager that has to change his system to accommodate one player, does no club a favour. With the forward’s departure, they seemed to start the process of converting their tactical shape. While they lack the personnel to play the preferred sys­em, and plan to use the proceeds from Dzeko’s sale to get the right players, for now they seem to be working with a 4–2-3–1, using Cicero and Josue as a double six behind Dejegah, Mandzukic and Diego. If they can get Elia, as has been rumoured, then they can have three forwards. Possibly replacing Cicero with a more box-to-box midfielder might help as well.”

Schalke 04 0 – 1 Hamburger SV

http://www.footytube.com/video/Schalke-04-vs-Hamburger-SV-70458

Van Nistelrooy claimed the points before revealing his preference to leave HSV, likely on loan. In truth this was a game let down by some rusty post-break finishing. It would certainly be no surprise to see Schalke rediscovering their scoring touch soon, though their slow strikers Van Huntelaar and Raul still look unsuited to the off-the-cuff nature of the Bundesliga (whatever their stats tell us). I am not sure this was a particularly informative result or performance in terms of either team and I won’t read too much into it.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/jan/17/borussia-dortmund-title

“It may take considerably longer for Ruud van Nistelrooy to wear the Hamburg shirt again, if at all. The Dutchman, scorer of the decisive goal in the 1-0 away win to Schalke, wants to return to Real Madrid on loan until the end of the season. “They are the only club that make think that way,” gushed the 34-year-old. “But I’m not free. The two clubs have to agree.” Matters are complicated by the fact that Madrid don’t want to pay a single peseta, let alone a euro, for the striker, and even more so because it’s unclear whom the Spaniards should actually talk to. The sporting director Bastian Reinhardt is reportedly about to be replaced by the DFB sporting director Matthias Sammer and the old “Kopfball-Ungeheuer” (header-monster) Horst Hrubesch may be in the frame for Armin Veh’s job. “Incredible,” Louis van Gaal’s catch-line, becomes more appropriate by the minute.”

Sun 16/01/11

Eintracht Fran… 0 – 3 Hannover 96

http://www.footytube.com/video/Eintracht-Frankfurt-vs-Hannover-96-70541

My perhaps slightly unfair view is that EF are little more than a three man team (comprising their keeper, their playmaker and their goal machine Gekas). In that regard I missed a trick here. With Ya Konan back for Hannover, I should have had the courage of my convictions to back the visitors for a win I said they were value to attain in my preview.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/jan/17/borussia-dortmund-title

• Before the start of the season, the Hannover 96 manager Mirko Slomka looked like he might be the first manager to part company with his club, whether by mutual agreement or otherwise. A brilliant first half of the season has changed the focus to renewing his deal but things have not progressed as smoothly as anticipated. Slomka, the local papers reported, pushed the president Martin Kind to the edge of reason last week: a few days before their match away to Frankfurt, the 43-year-old asked to be released from his contract with immediate effect. Both parties tried to make light of the disagreement when it was leaked. “In negotiations, it’s customary to play a game of poker,” said Kind, while Slomka maintained that their “differences weren’t big enough” to make working together in the summer unfeasible.

It was the worst possible preparation for the match at the Commerzbank-Arena but maybe these things are always overplayed by the media. The 96 players certainly didn’t seem to mind. Mohammed Abdellaoue (15min), Christian Schulz (21) and Didier Konan Ya (89) scored against the makeshift Eintracht defence; the goalkeeper and ex-Manchester United trainee Ron-Robert Zieler, a surprise starter, had little to do. The 3-0 win over the tired looking home side heaved Hannover into the unlikely role of Dortmund’s fiercest title rivals.

Kaiserslautern 1 – 1 Köln

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Kaiserslautern-vs-1.-Köln-70463

Kaiserslautern gifted The Billy Goats a goal and a man advantage when Lakic was needlessly red card. Koln nominally survived a Swine Flu scare prior to the game to claim a point. After Lakic saw red in 39 minutes, perhaps both sides would have settled for a draw in the circumstances. That wasn’t borne out in a frenetic game where both sides sought a winner. With a man advantage for over 50 minutes, Koln’s effort can’t be faulted but they look notably short of quality.

Results: Leverkusen 1-3 Dortmund, Schalke 0-1 Hamburg, Stuttgart 1-0 Mainz, Bremen 2-1 Hoffenheim, St Pauli 2-2 Freiburg, Nürnberg 0-1 Gladbach, Wolfsburg 1-1 Bayern, Frankfurt 0-3 Hannover, Kaiserslautern 1-1 Köln.

Latest Bundesliga table: http://guardian.touch-line.com/?Lang=0&CTID=12

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 21/01/11

Hamburger SV  19 : 30  Eintracht Fran…

Verdict: The prices can’t split these two dodgy sides that are over-reliant on a few key individuals to perform – and neither can I. No Bet.

Sat 22/01/11

Hannover 96  14 : 30  Schalke 04

Verdict: If pushed Hannover would be the marginal call but perhaps goals could be the best option here. Any side playing exclusively to Ya Konan’s strength and pace will always be dangerous, even with limited possession. Schalke were free-scoring before the break and they should come on for having brushed off the cobwebs last weekend in a poor pipe opener at home to HSV. Hannover v Schalke over 2.5 goals 10/11 William Hill, Coral

Borussia Dortmund  14 : 30  Stuttgart

Verdict:  There isn’t a lot of air in the prices but Dortmund at 8/15 probably rate a fair bet to continue their imperious progress. Stuttgart will be up for a battle against the league leaders but I have soon no evidence yet that they are about to hit a form streak. Possible bet (in a double).

Mainz 05  14 : 30  Wolfsburg

Verdict: Given Wolfsburg’s predilections (seven straight league draws) and Mainz’s poor home form (one win in their last five) this game bears all the hallmarks of a high scoring stalemate. Unless I was to back correct scores of 2-2 and 3-3 at fancy prices then I can’t see a way into this game. However,that would simply be a blind, and unscientific, guess in a game where neither side particularly appeals. No Bet.

Freiburg  14 : 30  Nürnberg

Verdict:   Neither side got the win their play deserved last time out but unfancied Freiburg are probably a shade of value at 11/8. Freiburg are unbeaten in five. However, other than that last time out unlucky loss v Borussia Monchengladbach, Nurnberg boast a similar form profile. I think this game is best swerved. No Bet.

Bayern München  14 : 30  Kaiserslautern

Verdict: There are better ¼ (80% projected win) chances than flaky Bayern this weekend. For all their swagger they never do things the easy way under Van Gaal and can’t be trusted. Kaiserslautern’s form is steady rather than spectacular so it is hard to find justifiable confidence to back the visitors at 14/1. Kaiserslautern are 7/8 +1.75 on the Asian Handicap with Bet 365 and 32 Red but it wouldn’t be a confident selection in a game that will once more probably be more about Bayern’s performance on the day than Kaiserslautern’s contribution as opponents. No Bet.

Köln  17 : 30  Werder Bremen

Verdict: Köln are dogged but limited, Bremen are attackingly progressive but defensively appalling. The best option here, and it is a good one, is both sides to score at BlueSquare’s 4/6.  Both sides to score 4/6 Blue Square.

Sun 23/01/11

Borussia M’gla…  14 : 30  Bayer Leverkusen

Verdict: Bayer Leverkusen were outclassed by champions elect Dortmund last Friday but bottom club Borussia Monchengladbach are in no sense comparable. I think Leverkusen should win this one but what I can’t decide is if they are too short to back at 10/11. I’ll take a second opinion on Bayer Leverkusen please. Second opinion needed: Bayer Leverkusen 10/11.

Hoffenheim  16 : 30  St. Pauli

Verdict: Instinctively I want to oppose St Pauli where possible but this isn’t the game to do so. Hoffenheim have just one win in their last five – an identical record to St Pauli. Something has to give but I have no idea what. No Bet

Shortlist:

Hannover v Schalke over 2.5 goals 10/11 William Hill, Coral

Köln v Werder Bremen Both sides to score 4/6 BlueSquare

Mentions:

Borussia Dortmund (8/15) are a possible bet (probably in a double).

Second opinion needed: Bayer Leverkusen 10/11 v Borussia Moenchengladbach.

After three weeks off the Bundesliga is back. Here is what we have got:

Bundesliga 14th January 2011

Shortlist

I am most keen on:

B Dortmund 21/10 (VC, William Hills) (FRIDAY NIGHT GAME)

B Leverkusen v B Dortmund both teams to score at 4/6 (Bet 365, Blue Sq, general)

Freiburg 11/5 VC

Mainz 41/13 Unibet

Officially No Bet, but, if you are around, it could also pay to take a view on the likely number of goals in the Wolfsburg v Bayern match on Saturday after 25 minutes have elapsed (see analysis of game).

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 17/12/10

Borussia M’gla… 1 – 2 Hamburger SV

http://www.footytube.com/video/Borussia-M’gladbach-vs-Hamburger-SV-68081

Two goalkeeping errors gifted the points to Hamburg who were just about ‘good enough’ here. Borussia M, inspired by their American midfielder Bradley, had the chances to take points both early on and following their equaliser. Borussia can’t defend and Hamburg don’t convince with a side full of individual talent but lacking a team identity and cohesion.

Sat 18/12/10

Nürnberg 3 – 1 Hannover 96

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Nürnberg-vs-Hannover-96-68120

No Ya Konan for Hannover and without him the away team’s counter-attacking blueprint was inoperable. Hannover got a bizarre lift from a double handball penalty incident. Otherwise though this was Nurnberg’s day. With the visitors especially vulnerable on setpieces, Hannover were brought crashing back to earth. Nonetheless, they can’t be written off here. Such is Ya Konan’s importance to the side that when he plays Hannover are a wholly different proposition.

Eintracht Fran… 1 – 0 Borussia Dortmund

http://www.video-highlights.net/frankfurt-borussia-dortmund-video-highlights-1-0/

Dortmund simply ran out of gas here as Gekas broke the league leaders’ hearts with a late winner. Weary Dortmund will have been desperate for the break and they should resume hostilities very much refreshed.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/dec/20/bayern-beat-stuttgart-and-cold

• “Ground, pitch, ball and opponent weren’t our friends today,” said Jürgen Klopp after his side’s second defeat of the season in Frankfurt, where the unavoidable Theofanis Gekas scored in the last minute. Dortmund looked knackered and mentally exhausted after crashing out of the Europa League in midweek, 14 fantastic wins in 17 games have left little in the tank. “We have played a sensational first half of the season,” said the manager, who’s still reluctant to talk about winning the championship. Their 14 January restart away to second-placed Leverkusen, who could only draw 2-2 with Freiburg, could go a long away towards banishing all thoughts of an equally spectacular collapse. Or not.

Wolfsburg 2 – 2 Hoffenheim

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfL-Wolfsburg-vs-Hoffenheim-68114

The midfielder Gustavo signed off with an opening goal for Hoffenheim en route to Munich. For Wolfsburg Dzeko upstaged his effort with a 90th minute equaliser prior to his transfer to Man City. This game is most significant for the final acts of this pair and also Hoffenheim coach Rangnick at these respective clubs. Both sides, you’d feel, have been weakened in the process.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/dec/20/bayern-beat-stuttgart-and-cold

• Edin Dzeko’s injury-time strike rescued a point for VfL Wolfsburg against Hoffenheim and made sure that Steve McClaren could see out the year on a Bundesliga bench. His side played a terrible first half, were 2-0 down and had the crowd on their backs before a loud half-time speech from the Englishman and a strict prohibition of short passes got them going again. Wolfsburg were fortunate to come away with a point but after six draws in a row, patience with the manager has all but run out. A few angry, cruel supporters were already seen waving umbrellas in the direction of McClaren in the stands.

Werder Bremen 1 – 2 Kaiserslautern

http://www.footytube.com/video/Werder-Bremen-vs-1.-Kaiserslautern-68131

This was all about Lakic (two goals for the visitors) and the ever-dangerous Marin of Bremen. The former exploited a series of weak challenges to score his clinching goals. Marin was at the heart of everything for Bremen winning a penalty and drawing a foul from Bugera that led to a red card. Another even, open game typical of the Bundesliga.

Schalke 04 3 – 0 Köln

http://www.footytube.com/video/Schalke-04-vs-1.-Köln-68121

A bloodless three points for rapidly improving Schalke and rejuvenated hatrick man Raul.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/dec/20/bayern-beat-stuttgart-and-cold

• Dortmund’s local rivals Schalke were almost as happy to finish the year in 10th position, which just goes to show that in the Bundesliga it’s where you’re from, not where you at. The Royal Blues will still spend the winter being subjected to Felix Magath’s pre-modern fitness methods but are at least able to look towards Europe and a date with Valencia. The Schalke coach has even hinted at reinstating the short Christmas time off for the players. “We aren’t brutes here, apart from one,” Magath joked. The chief culprit for all this merriment was Raúl who managed a hat-trick against Köln. The Spaniard told reporters that his kids loved the snow in Germany and that all the team was now playing mucho mejor.

St. Pauli 2 – 4 Mainz 05

http://www.video-highlights.net/st-pauli-mainz-video-highlights-2-4/

Mainz concluded their breathtaking winter campaign by beating relegation-fearing St. Pauli in a six-goal thriller.

St. Pauli came into this game needing a win to achieve their declared mid-season target of 20 points. Like Mainz, the newly-promoted club started the campaign promisingly before tailing off – just as expected. Holger Stanislawski’s team have earned just one win in their last eight matches, and they faced Mainz without ‘keeper Thomas Kessler, red-carded in the defeat at Bayern München and flu-victims Deniz Naki and Richard Sukuta-Pasu.

Thomas Tuchel, who saw his Mainz side suffer a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Schalke in Round 16, had the luxury of a near full-strength squad to choose from at the Millerntor – only Bo Svensson and Jan Šimák were ruled out. Although Mainz had dropped to fourth in recent weeks, they knew a win would – temporarily – take them back up to second spot and so it proved.

Sun 19/12/10

Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 2 Freiburg

http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayer-Leverkusen-vs-SC-Freiburg-68380

This draw prevented Leverkusen from ending the year in second spot and they can count themselves unlucky not to have claimed three points from a game that probably shouldn’t have been played. Blizzard conditions, mistakes aplenty and an orange ball provided the context for another open game. Freiburg stuck to their task here very well and, despite being largely outplayed in the second half, they almost snatched the win with a couple of late efforts.

Stuttgart 3 – 5 Bayern München

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfB-Stuttgart-vs-Bayern-München-68360

Bayern looked ominously good here. Stuttgart looked ominously bad. Just as the score suggests. However, Stuttgart were never wholly without chances against a suspect Bayern defence.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/dec/20/bayern-beat-stuttgart-and-cold

“New VfB Stuttgart coach Bruno Labbadia, however, had the interesting idea of giving 20-year-old Emin Bicakcic his Bundesliga debut. After a decent start, the right-back lost the ball to Thomas Müller who found Mario Gomez with a deft pass. The former Stuttgart striker finished well to give the champions a flattering lead. Then Bicakcic (“it was my mistake to play him, he couldn’t cope with the pressure,” said Labbadia afterwards) and the rest of the Swabian back-line fell apart. Müller and Franck Ribéry scored easy goals before the break.

It was game over, or should have been. No one had told substitute Martin Harnik, though. The Austrian striker took advantage of typical Bavarian defensive rubbishness to pull one back, then Gomez completed a hat-trick with two scrappy, opportunistic strikes. The travelling supporters were sarcastically singing “Bruno Labbadia, oh oh oh oh oh” to the classic 80s Italian disco tune of “Vamos a la Playa”. Life really was a beach for Munich, perhaps too much so: Anatoly Tymoschuk, Breno and keeper Hans-Jörg Butt conspired to produce a bout of “poolside football” (SKY Germany pundit Werner Schneyder) to concede two more. But that was it. The final 20 minutes of the game just petered out like a Peter Andre ballad.

It was only Bayern’s second away win of the season and not quite enough to re-ignite talk of catching up league leaders Dortmund (11 points ahead after their surprising 1-0 loss to Frankfurt) just yet. “They’re too far gone, but four points behind the second [Leverkusen], we can do that,” said Louis van Gaal.”

Results: Gladbach 1–2 Hamburg, Bremen 1–2 Kaiserslautern, Schalke 3–0 Köln, Nürnberg 3–1 Hannover, Frankfurt 1–0 Dortmund, Wolfsburg 2–2 Hoffenheim, St Pauli 2–4 Mainz, Leverkusen 2–2 Freiburg, Stuttgart 3–5 Bayern

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 14/01/11

Bayer Leverkusen 19 : 30 Borussia Dortmund

Verdict:   Third plays top in the game of the weekend. I like Dortmund away from home where their fast, counter attacking style especially suits the context of away games. There are no worries about Dortmund’s listless legs after a three week break and they certainly offer value at 21/10 (VC, William Hills) to win this game. If you excuse the tired pre-break games at Seville and Eintracht Frankfurt then Dortmund have won eight out of eight of their previous away games against all comers. A 4-0 friendly win over Basel in the Christmas holidays suggests that Dortmund’s eye is still in. For those seeking some form of insurance, Dortmund +0.25 on the Asian Handicap at 86/100 (StanJames) looks a very fair price. In a league where the draw is overrated price-wise though, the value could lie in backing the straight away win. I also like both teams to score at 4/6 (Bet 365, Blue Sq, general) as Leverkusen pack some punch of their own.

Dortmund 21/10 (VC, William Hills)

B Leverkusen v B Dortmund both teams to score at 4/6 (Bet 365, Blue Sq, general)

Sat 15/01/11

Wolfsburg 14 : 30 Bayern München

Verdict: Bayern are on the up with all their key men back however I do not want to back a side that are still finding their feet at heavy odds on just yet (8/11). Not least because Werder Bremen boss Steve McLaren is fighting to save his job. Surprisingly for a side boasting six consecutive draws, the Wolves matches average 3.41 goals per game this season – the fourth highest total in the section. The prices aren’t there to back either over 2.5 goals or over 3.5 goals ahead of kick off. This looks like an obvious game to take a view on in play live on Saturday when it may be possible to get a better price on the likely goal tally after 25 minutes. German games typically burst to life once the deadlock is broken due to the playing mentality and an imbalance between defence and attack throughout the Bundesliga’s sides. Even if the game is as dull as dishwater in the opening exchanges it may be worth gambling on goals, against the tide of sentiment, if the price drifts too far upwards. That said an early goal for Bayern could easily spark a Wolfsburg collapse. The obvious thing to say is: Wolfsburg will surely struggle to score without the departed Dzeko? However, as true as that is, it is not beyond sloppy Bayern to gift opponents goals so I’d slightly favour a goals bet rather than taking Bayern Munich on the handicap or to win. No Bet but maybe look to take a view on the likely number of goals in play.

Werder Bremen 14 : 30 Hoffenheim

Verdict: This game looks a muddle as draw specialists Hoffenheim, with a new man at the helm, take on a wildly open Werder Bremen side that can’t be trusted. I can’t see a way into this game. No Bet.

NB Ralf Rangnick has resigned as coach of Hoffenheim during the break. Rangnick and Hoffenheim ‘owner’ Dietmar Hopp fell out fatally over the proposed sale of midfielder Luis Gustavo to Bayern. Rangnick was adamant that it should happen in this summer and not now in the winter break. Hopp disagreed, and it is reported that he dealt directly with Bayern himself to secure the €15 million transfer deal. Assistant coach Marco Pezzaiuoli was promoted to the top job at Hoffenheim.

Nürnberg 14 : 30 Borussia M’gla…

Verdict: Nurnberg should win this game but are too short to back at 11/10. That said BM showed glimpses against Hamburg last time out and were perhaps slightly unlucky to lose 2-1 due to two keeper gaffes. No Bet.

St. Pauli 14 : 30 Freiburg

Verdict: I want to be against St Pauli who looked as if their early season honeymoon period was over prior to the break. Holger Stanislawski’s team have earned just one win in their last eight matches. Freiburg coach Robin Dutt has ruled out the sale of his club’s top goalscorer Papiss Cisse this winter. The Senegalese striker, who is being currently linked with Arsenal has attracted plenty of interest from clubs throughout Europe for his 13 goals during the first half of the season, but Dutt says once again that the player is going nowhere. Cisse missed the last time out draw at Leverkusen and the powerhouse forward can make an impact on this game, perhaps the defining impact, as he returns to the side. I like the look of Freiburg at a counter-attack friendly 11/5 (VC).

Freiburg 11/5 VC

Stuttgart 14 : 30 Mainz 05

Verdict:  Second plays 17th, and on the face of it, the price appear to be based solely on both clubs wider reputations. Yes Mainz defeats at Frankfurt and at home to Schalke could be seen as evidence of Mainz slipping back to the pack. But there is an equal case for saying that the 4-2 win over St Pauli stopped the rot and was an ideal way to sign off for Christmas. Stuttgart for their part look ill-equipped for a relegation battle by their manager’s own admission and it could be sensible to side with quietly efficient Mainz at 41/13 Unibet.

Mainz 41/13 Unibet

Schalke 04 17 : 30 Hamburger SV

Verdict:  Schalke can win this one against an overrated Hamburg with a distinct lack of appetite for hard work. However, I won’t be taking short prices in this game just after a winter break. These sides’ momentum is still to be re-established and the only sensible course is No Bet.

Sun 16/01/11

Eintracht Fran… 14 : 30 Hannover 96

Verdict: The only match betting option here is a bet on Hannover (14/5 VC) but they lost meekly at Nurnberg 3-1 prior to the break (with Ya Konan absent) and I want to take a fresh look at them in this the new year. Either of these sides could fall away but it is hard to know how the season will turn next for these teams unseen. Certainly, with Gekas and Ya Konan in this game both sides to score looks a strong shout at a widely available 4/6.

Kaiserslautern 16 : 30 Köln

Verdict: This looks like another home win. However I don’t like the prices. I feel that Kaiserslautern were flattered by their win over Werder Bremen and also have a sense that Koln have more potential than their recent results show. This could be a trap of a game so No Bet.

I am most keen on:

B Dortmund 21/10 (VC, William Hills)

B Leverkusen v B Dortmund both teams to score at 4/6 (Bet 365, Blue Sq, general)

Freiburg 11/5 VC

Mainz 41/13 Unibet

Officially No Bet, but, if you are around, it could also pay to take a view on the likely number of goals in the Wolfsburg v Bayern match on Saturday after 25 minutes have elapsed (see analysis of game).

This week’s thoughts from Der Kaiser’s palace…

It is the final week of the Bundesliga prior to the winter break and it could pay to tread cautiously as both the players and pitches are beginning to look a little tired. That said, I think there are three strong shortlisted selections below. In the case of Bayern Munich at Stuttgart – I took a second view from the syndicate and the consensus appears to be that Bayern are best backed in play if they look good in the opening 20 minutes. The pitch condition and a new manager for Stuttgart could have a bearing on that result.

Shortlist:

I am most keen on…

Schalke -1 at 1.87 with 12 Bet.

Borussia Dortmund 5/6 ToteSport.

Hannover at 12/5 VC, Bet 365.

I needed a second opinion on:

Bayern Munich at 20/21 StanJames (see above)

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 10/12/10

Hannover 96 2 – 1 Stuttgart

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hannover-96-vs-VfB-Stuttgart-67296

This was the archetypal Bundesliga game. Ya Konan pounced on a botched defensive clearance to open the scoring for the dominant home side. Unimpressive Stuttgart got back into it was a straight, nothing free kick that the Hannover keeper made a hash off. Minutes later Hannover were back on top as the pacy Ya Konan pounced on a moment of ill concentration to break the offside trap and slot home through the keeper’s legs. If you want a glimpse of the Bundesliga’s key themes distilled into 2 ½ minutes then watch these highlights. Hannover ultimately deserved three points here despite letting Stuttgart back into the game at 1-1. Ya Konan is the perfect outlet for a tidy, counter-attacking side that revel in their ‘little team’ tag. It is a misleading label as Hannover are a good side. Take away two high scoring wins from Stuttgart’s record this season and you are left with a very poor set of returns. On this evidence though, Stuttgart are 17th in the Bundesliga on merit.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/dec/13/hannover-bundesliga-rarefied-spheres

“On average, they have 46% of possession, only Köln (15th) and Gladbach (18th) manage less. Their ‘one-v-one’ stats – Zweikämpfe, they call it in Germany – are the second-worst in the Bundesliga. No team misplaces passes more often. No team creates fewer chances. It is, in other words, quite easy to explain why Hannover 96 are not the best team in the German top flight. How come they are the third-best, though? Professional code breakers would struggle to make sense of these numbers.

Take Friday’s match against struggling Stuttgart in the AWD-Arena. The visitors had more possession (55%). They had more shots on goal, completed more passes, won most of the Zweikämpfe. Yet everyone agreed that Mirko Slomka’s men had outplayed the Swabians in the process, and that Didier Ya Konan’s brace either side of a header from VfB centre-back Georg Niedermeier was but the logical culmination of the hosts’ superiority.

Hannover, you see, are just not interested in keeping the ball. Nor do they care for sweeping, collective attack moves. Slomka has decided that their lack of quality attacking midfielders would be best addressed by bypassing the midfield altogether. What they’re trying to do is to win the ball fairly, early, and then hit the strikers with long through-balls as quickly as possible. More often than not, they cannot be found. But when they do get in, the goalscoring opportunity is usually so good that the 96ers take it. Slomka, a coach who seemed ever so slightly out of his depth at Schalke, has turned one of the most average sides in the league into the shiniest, devastating counterattacking machine.”

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/dec/13/hannover-bundesliga-rarefied-spheres

“Stuttgart’s defeat saw the unsurprising end of their manager Jens Keller: the 30-year-old was fired on Saturday. It spoke volumes of the nervousness of the VfB officials that Bruno Labbadia, the third coach this season, entered the club HQ via a backdoor. Reporters had been asked to keep the exact location and time of his unveiling secret. Alas, the feared protests from supporters didn’t materialise. Labbadia, who crashed and burned spectacularly at Leverkusen and Hamburg after excellent starts, is an interesting choice, perhaps the perfect match even: a club who fires every manager after one year meets a manager who always gets fired after one year. Stuttgart gave him a contract until 2013 but are obviously more concerned with avoiding a short-term disaster: “There’s an almost apocalyptic fear that they will have to inaugurate the new, pure football stadium in the second division,” wrote Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.”

Sat 11/12/10

Kaiserslautern 0 – 0 Wolfsburg

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Kaiserslautern-vs-VfL-Wolfsburg-67345

A niggly game that Kaiserslautern will feel that they ought to have claimed three points with the better chances, two big handball shouts against Kjaer and an offside goal to boot. Wolfsburg were abject and it is too easy to blame the unsettled Djeko or a sore injury list for a poor set of results for Steve McLaren.

Köln 1 – 0 Eintracht Fran…

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Köln-vs-Eintracht-Frankfurt-67347

A deserved three points for an improving Koln side in a game of attack and counter attack. More worrying though is an injury to Podolski – Koln’s one true class act. EF showed once more how reliant they are on Bundesliga top scorer Gekas. The Greek failed to spark here and as a result Frankfurt were left empty-handed.

Hoffenheim 1 – 1 Nürnberg

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hoffenheim-vs-1.-Nürnberg-67377

Nurnberg equalised three minutes from time in a game where they were slightly lucky to take anything. Hoffenheim were punished here for not capitalising on a series of chances. Typically, the goals came from, you guessed it, a corner kick and a quick, opportunistic Nurnberg break upfield late on.

Hamburger SV 2 – 4 Bayer Leverkusen

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hamburger-SV-vs-Bayer-Leverkusen-67378

With too many weak link stars cashing the cheque, Hamburg are clearly less than the sum of their parts. But we shouldn’t be afraid to oppose them as their lack of work ethic and sloppy possession leaves them vulnerable to fearless counter attackers like Bayer Leverkusen. Another spectacular Sidney Sam goal, a double from Renato Augusto and a brave effort from Vidal confirmed the fact that BL boasted greater desire and cohesion on the day. I haven’t changed my positive opinion of Leverkusen or my negative slant on HSV after this one sided match. ‘Not good enough’ was the summation of Hamburg’s effort in commentary.

Bayern München 3 – 0 St. Pauli

http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayern-München-vs-FC-Sankt-Pauli-67379

An early goal and a red card for the visitors’ keeper paved the way for a Bayern Munich stroll in Bavaria.

Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 Werder Bremen

http://www.footytube.com/video/Borussia-Dortmund-vs-Werder-Bremen-67475

Sahin’s perfect free kick sent Dortmund on their way to a 2-0 win. Pizarro will at least make Werder more dangerous. He was lucky not to win a penalty here and who knows what might have happened then. Werder enjoyed dominant periods in this game but the superior quality of Dortmund defined the result. Dortmund are top of the league for good reason.

Sun 12/12/10

Freiburg 3 – 0 Borussia M’gla…

http://www.footytube.com/video/SC-Freiburg-vs-Borussia-M’gladbach-67652

This was a bloodless home win against a BM side missing key men. The powerful Cisse scored twice and never gave the bottom-placed side a minute’s piece. Freiburg were literally too strong here.

Mainz 05 0 – 1 Schalke 04

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-FSV-Mainz-05-vs-Schalke-04-67587

This was a game defined by two dodgily-awarded penalties. However, justice was done as both sides failed to capitalise from their spot kicks. Schalke’s greater quality, especially in wide areas was probably worthy of their three hard-won points here. Mainz’s bubble of good early season form looks to have burst.

Results: Hannover 2-0 Stuttgart, Hoffenheim 1-1 Nürnberg, Hamburg 2-4 Leverkusen, Bayern 3-0 St Pauli, Dortmund 2-0 Werder, Kaiserslautern 0-0 Wolfsburg, Köln 1-0 Frankfurt, Freiburg 3-0 Gladbach, Schalke 1-0 Mainz

League Table: http://guardian.touch-line.com/?Lang=0&CTID=12&CPID=1&pStr=Table

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 17/12/10

Borussia M’gla…  19 : 30  Hamburger SV

Verdict: Hamburg have better players and should win this. However, these are two bum teams and HSV simply cannot be trusted while their own players, such as keeper Frank Rost, confirm that their performances beggar belief. No bet at the prices (13/10 Hamburg).

Sat 18/12/10

Schalke 04  14 : 30  Köln

Verdict:   Schalke are very short at 8/15. However Podolski and Novakovic are out for Koln and with them go their team’s chances. Despite reservations (still), Schalke are improving and they should have too much firepower here. I like the look of Schalke -1 at 1.87 with 12 Bet.

Werder Bremen  14 : 30  Kaiserslautern

Verdict:  Granted Kaiserslautern have hit two poor results at St Pauli and at home to Wolfsburg but their performances are generally better than that poor form. Werder Bremen are still without Almeida although the return of Pizarro gives them a much needed focal point in attack. All in all though, Kaiserslautern are just about worth chancing at a generally available 9/2 (Hills, SJ, Blue Sq, VC). However, I have in my notes an underlining that Kaiserslautern can’t be trusted for now. I will have to pass. No bet.

Wolfsburg  14 : 30  Hoffenheim

Verdict:  This pair boast six draws from their last ten games combined – and that is a stat that flies in the face of the current gung-ho climate in Germany. Maybe we’ll see another draw but I am in no hurry to support either side. No bet.

Eintracht Fran…  14 : 30  Borussia Dortmund

With their perfect away record, it is hard to argue that Borussia Dortmund are even more impressive on the road and actually more worthy of support at favourable prices. I see no reason to quote the league leaders at 5/6 versus an EF team that rely on three players (keeper, playmaker Gekas) for their results. The Greek striker Gekas looked to struggle last time out in Cologne and that merely gives more encouragement to back Borussia Dortmund at 5/6 with ToteSport.  One slight concern is that they are looking a little leggy however, I reckon they can give it one last push before putting their feet up during the festive season break in Germany.

Nürnberg  14 : 30  Hannover 96

Hannover don’t do anything well bar one thing – counter attack. As such they are always of interest on the road at big prices where they can use the sucker punch pace of the powerful Ivorian Ya Konan to best effect. Nurnberg were lucky last time out. The tables could be turned this week by smash and grab Hannover at 5/2 VC.

St. Pauli  17 : 30  Mainz 05

Verdict: Results appear to favour Mainz but some of those performances (for example v Borussia Moenchengladbach) leave me cold. Neither team can be trusted so no bet.

Sun 19/12/10

Bayer Leverkusen  14 : 30  Freiburg

Verdict:  Leverkusen should win this but Freiburg’s results and performances suggest they are not without chances. At the prohibitively short prices: no bet.  Freiburg are without their powerhouse Cisse here. That makes a home win likely on paper but I wonder if this game could turn out to be a potential snake in the grass….No bet.

Stuttgart  16 : 30  Bayern München

Verdict: The crisis at Bayern has been glossed over for now by returnees such as Ribery and a couple of decent home wins. However, Munchen’s away form is ropy and they face a new Stuttgart boss in (Bruno Labbadia). I’d like a second opinion on this game before committing to Bayern Munich at 20/21 StanJames.

Shortlist:

I am most keen on…

Schalke -1 at 1.87 with 12 Bet.

Borussia Dortmund 5/6 ToteSport.

Hannover at 5/2 VC.

I needed a second opinion on:

Bayern Munich at 20/21 StanJames