A profitable week to kick off last week with Dortmund and Hannover both winning. Here are this week’s thoughts. Please note Hannover play tonight (Friday).

Bundesliga 9th December 2010

This week’s thoughts from Der Kaiser’s palace…

I like the following most this week:

Hannover 13/8 VC (Friday 730pm)

Leverkusen 15/8 BetFred, Coral

Freiburg 20/21 ToteSport

Schalke 15/8

With a second opinion needed on Borussia Dortmund 8/13

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 03/12/10

St. Pauli 1 – 0 Kaiserslautern

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-12-03-st-pauli-kaiserslautern.html

A Tiffert own goal won this game for St Pauli that was big on effort but low on quality. I suspect Kaiserslautern were dragged down to St Pauli’s level here a bit but I won’t be rushing to support either side on this showing.

Sat 04/12/10

Freiburg 1 – 0 Hamburger SV

http://www.footytube.com/video/SC-Freiburg-vs-Hamburger-SV-66564

Another goal from a setpiece in a game where all the significant action came from freekicks and corners. Hamburg don’t enjoy either the physical or organisational challenges of the game and it was down to Cisse (predictably) to bundle home the winner. These sides looked relatively well matched but Hamburg’s illustrious name means they are consistently overrated.

Borussia M’gla… 1 – 2 Hannover 96

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-12-04-borussia-monchengladbach-hannover.html

The bottom side took a 1-0 lead here as Bradley converted from a freekick. However, the game turned on a red card for Borussia striker Bobadilla (for a petulant kick out) and Hannover ran out very good value for a 2-1 win with Hanke and Ya Konan on song with two goals in 90 second half minutes.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/dec/06/louis-van-gaal-schalke-bayern

“The Gladbach striker Raúl Bobadilla was apparently eager for a change of scenery, too. The Argentinian kicked Sergio Pinto (Hannover) for a stupid red card and followed up with a meaty “hijo de puta” towards the official Christian Fischer. Unfortunately for “Boba”, Fischer was au fait with the wonders of google translate and reported the insult; as a consequence, the 23-year-old was banned for five matches after the 2-1 home defeat on Monday. If it’s an early Christmas holiday the impulsive attacker wanted, the ploy didn’t quite succeed. Bobadilla has been banished to train with the under-23s until the winter break.”

Eintracht Fran… 2 – 1 Mainz 05

http://www.footytube.com/video/Eintracht-Frankfurt-vs-1.-FSV-Mainz-05-66548

A game in which both sides enjoyed dominant periods and that neither side probably deserved to lose on the basis of a few scrappy chances. However, Gekas yet again, proved the difference. The Bundesliga’s top scorer, with 13 league goals this term at an average of 0.87 per game, sealed the win with a cool 84th minute penalty.

Wolfsburg 0 – 0 Werder Bremen

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfL-Wolfsburg-vs-Werder-Bremen-66594

Both sides missed penalties, Mertesacker ought to have put Wolsburg 1-0 up. In between times these sides played cat and mouse, with Wolfsburg huffing and puffing and Bremen counter attacking at pace but without incision. Arnautovic confirmed the impression that he is a talented square peg in a round hole. However, it would be hard to imagine this player ever subsuming his effort to the benefit of his teammates. A flamboyant first half trick and acute angle shot was typical of a performance that was offered up solely for the benefit of the cameras. Justice was probably done when Bremen missed the dubious penalty he had won them. This was a funny game that never quite sparked until the second half. Despite that, it is hard to believe that these sides contributed to a 0-0 on the basis of the clear chances shown within the highlighted action. Werder Bremen look to be a side packed full of comedians with a longing to play Shakespeare. Diego aside, Wolfsburg look to be bereft of decent creativity, despite the threat posed by their forwards Dzeko (who was off-key here) and (the absent) Grafite.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/dec/06/louis-van-gaal-schalke-bayern

“Vfl Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen missed a penalty each in a dreadful game that could and should have only ever ended 0-0. After Torsten Frings’s mis-hit, Edin Dzeko surprisingly took the ball off Diego to come up with a Beckham v Turkey/Portugal floodlights-botherer. “I knew he would miss, I saw in his eyes that he was unsure, as he had been throughout the game,” said the Bremen goalkeeper Tim Wiese. Dzeko, who really had been terrible, was substituted with two minutes two go and booed off the pitch. The Bosnian refused to shake Steve McClaren’s hand, too. His performance was so uncharacteristically dire and lazy that thoughts have naturally turned on the Machiavellian manoeuvres of one J Mourinho: Dzeko, local reporters fear, might be trying to force a January move to Real Madrid.”

Stuttgart 1 – 1 Hoffenheim

http://www.footytube.com/video/VfB-Stuttgart-vs-Hoffenheim-66663

Stuttgart missed the chance to claim a much-needed win as they were held at home 1-1 by Hoffenheim.

Sejad Salihovic gave Hoffenheim the lead after 11 minutes, but Martin Harnik brought the hosts level in the 34th minute.

Hoffenheim were reduced to 10 men four minutes before the break when Isaac Vorsah was shown the red card, but Stuttgart could not make that advantage count in the second half.

Stuttgart are without a win in four matches and sit in 16th place in the Bundesliga, while Hoffenheim made it three games unbeaten.

Schalke 04 2 – 0 Bayern München

http://www.footytube.com/video/Schalke-04-vs-Bayern-München-66695

Schalke have keeper Manuel Neuer to thank in this classic game of two halves. As Ribery, Kroos and Muller ran riot in the first period, the German No 1 kept Bayern at bay and in the second half a quick kick upfield set up Raul to create Schalke’s opener on the way to a slightly flattering 2-0 win. Bayern, have the big men back bar Robben but they still look ropy defensively. Breno and Lahm didn’t enjoy the best of games. Slowly but surely, Schalke are finding some form as their new side beds in.

Sun 05/12/10

Bayer Leverkusen 3 – 2 Köln

http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayer-Leverkusen-vs-1.-Köln-66836

Nürnberg 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Nürnberg-vs-Borussia-Dortmund-66841

Another professional showing. The remorseless Dortmund juggernaut powers on.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/dec/06/louis-van-gaal-schalke-bayern

The runaway leaders Dortmund were unstoppable again, as goals from Mats Hummels and Robert Lewandowski secured a 2-0 win over Nürnberg and the symbolic title of “autumn champions”. Borussia have only dropped five points all season, no Bundesliga team has ever been able to win 13 out of their first 15 matches. “We are probably a title contender”, conceded the happy manager Jürgen Klopp. Tellingly, his team had much more trouble off the pitch, when their aeroplane was first delayed for an hour due to a snow blizzard and then denied landing rights in Dortmund: according to the local air traffic controller, it would have come in 29 seconds (!) after the latest possible deadline of 23h. Good old German officiousness for you. Or a case of a Schalke fan working deep behind enemy lines.

Results: St Pauli 1-0 Kaiserslautern, Schalke 2-0 Bayern, Gladbach 1-2 Hannover, Frankfurt 2-1 Mainz, Wolfsburg 0-0 Bremen, Stuttgart 1-1 Hoffenheim, Freiburg 1-0 Hamburg, Leverkusen 3-2 Köln, Nürnberg 0-2 Dortmund.

Latest Bundesliga table

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 10/12/10

Hannover 96 19 : 30 Stuttgart

Verdict:  With four consecutive wins over Mainz, Hamburg, Freiburg and Borussia M, fourth placed Hannover have to be fancied against stuttering Stuttgart (whose last win was the 6-0 stuffing of ragged Werder Bremen on 7th November). At 6/4 Hannover look like an underrated, unfashionable home side – and an obvious bet.

Sat 11/12/10

Bayern München 14 : 30 St. Pauli

Verdict:  Despite their travails, Bayern (even at 2/9) should have too much class for honest, but limited St Pauli. They look a solid banker for multiples purposes this weekend.

Hamburger SV 14 : 30 Bayer Leverkusen

Verdict:  I currently consider work-shy Hamburg to be another side trading on their historic reputation. There are too few workers in their orchestra of ‘artists’ (typified by moody veteran striker Van Nistelrooy). Without solid possession or the principles of organisation in place, even virtuoso teams can’t expect to simply turn up and win. Hamburg aren’t all that and they have lost away at Freiburg and Hannover in recent defeats that book-end a false-looking 4-2 home win over Stuttgart. Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last four aways, they boast a strong keeper in Adler, an inventive playmaker in Renato Augusto and an in-form forward in the flamboyant Sidney Sam. The manager Heynckes is a thoughtful tactician who is quite prepared to gamble with brave in game decisions (such as a 4-6-0). At 15/8 Leverkusen have chances but they look even stronger with a start that gets the draw onside too. They are a solid 11/10 with Coral DNB. However in a league where drawn games are at a premium (around 20%) I think it might be worth siding with the generous away win price of 15/8.

Hoffenheim 14 : 30 Nürnberg

Verdict:  Hoffenheim are too short and though Nurnberg offer value at 5/1 it is hard to make a compelling case for them. No bet.

Köln 14 : 30 Eintracht Fran…

Verdict:  Koln are improving under a new boss and EF, with their over-reliance on Gekas’ goals, are too flaky to be trusted. No bet.

Kaiserslautern 14 : 30 Wolfsburg

Verdict:  I have no real view on this game (especially after Dzeko’s off-key showing last time out). Kaiserslautern aren’t great either and contrive to be the architects of their own downfall too often. No bet.

Borussia Dortmund 17 : 30 Werder Bremen

Verdict:  It is hard to see past Dortmund here – especially with Almeida suspended still for the visitors. I reckon they are a fair enough proposition at 8/13, although it is a skinny quote for a side that I prefer backing at better prices on the road. I’d like a second opinion.

Sun 12/12/10

Freiburg 14 : 30 Borussia M’gla…

Verdict:  Freiburg are good enough to dispose of the sides around them in midtable and less assured against the leading lights. As the home side they must boast a decent shout against bottom side Borussia Moenchengladbach. The visitors, through Reuss, are certainly capable of putting up a fight (with sometimes spectacular goals). However, their defence is woeful and particularly vulnerable on setpieces – something you just can’t get away with in the Bundesliga. Rugged striker P. Cisse has 11 goals in 15 starts for Freiburg and though his strikes are seldom pretty they are invariably the difference in turning tight games Freiburg’s way. In that respect, bustling Cisse is the opposite of the swaggering Reuss whose goals too often count for nothing thanks to his colleagues sloppy defending. At 18/19 Freiburg have a solid home win chance.

Mainz 05 16 : 30 Schalke 04

Verdict:  Superficially this is a battle of two yo-yo sides and my first instinct would be to lay the draw here as both sides favour spectacular wins – or spectacular defeats. However, apart from an aberrant 5-0 loss to Kaiserslautern, Schalke’s recent results have been solid. This much-changed team of Felix Magath’s have taken time to bed in but there is no doubting the talent of a side boasting Neuer, Van Huntelaar and a rejuvenated Raul. Free-scoring Schalke are preferred at a value price 15/8 in a contest that form says could go either way.

Summary Shortlist:

Hannover 6/4

Leverkusen 15/8 win and draw

Freiburg 18/19

Schalke 15/8

With a second opinion needed on Borussia Dortmund 8/13

I have been asked to supply betting analysis on the Bundesliga for a side project/syndicate I am involved in that are looking at new ways of betting multiples using games from the top European leagues. It is an interesting approach with a 30% ROI since February (based on around four bets per week). I may well let you know more about it once the dust settles there and we have a good proofed record.

In the meantime though, I thought it might be useful to share my thoughts on the German scene with you each week and here below is what I am thinking about for the weekend. From a proofing point of view, although I am looking at multiples, I’ll record these results, from each week’s shortlisted selections, at 1pt level stakes so we can see how I am doing.
This week’s thoughts from Der Kaiser’s palace…

I like the following most this week:

Dortmund 3/4*

Hoffenheim 12/5

Hannover 11/5 (tentative)

With a second opinion needed on Wolfsburg (-1) 67/40.

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 26/11/10

Mainz 05 3 – 0 Nürnberg

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-11-26-mainz-nurnberg.html

Three setpiece goals for Mainz (the third was a breakaway after a Nurnberg free kick). Hard to form an opinion on the highlights other than to say that Nurnberg can’t defend setpieces. Allagui 86th minute finish for 3-0 was both composed and sublime.

Sat 27/11/10

Kaiserslautern 5 – 0 Schalke 04

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-11-27-kaiserslautern-schalke-04.html

All five Kaiserslautern goals were from setpieces and breakaways suggesting that this Schalke side, top heavy with attacking talent, lacks the basic discipline, steel and organisation normally associated with Felix Magath’s teams. Kaiserslautern’s recent performances have arguably been better than the bare form of their results so, you can argue, that they got their long-overdue rub of the green here. This was certainly a flattering looking win for Kaiserslautern but it could kill Schalke’s recent revival stone dead, sending Magath’s men back to square one in their rebuilding mission.

Hannover 96 3 – 0 Freiburg

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-11-27-hannover-freiburg.html

The scoreline suggests a one-sided contest and that is what it looked like on the highlights. Hannover are getting a bit of momentum going. Fourth in the table and consecutive wins over Mainz, Hamburg and Freiburg is good form. Freiburg have been performing as expected until now by losing to the leading sides and competing gamely with everyone else. In that context, this result was a bit of a slip-up that puts a squiggle next to unreliable Freiburg in my notebook.

Hoffenheim 2 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-11-27-hoffenheim-bayer-leverkusen.html

Leverkusen lost an impressively gained two goal lead here, conceding another setpiece goal and an equaliser from a 94th minute penalty. A heartbreaker for Leverkusen, for whom keeper Rene Adler had a fine game. On the balance of play though, Hoffenheim will feel their comeback merited a share of the spoils.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/nov/29/bundesliga-hamburg-stuttgart-armin-veh

“A last-minute 2-2 equaliser by Hoffenheim prevented third-placed Leverkusen from keeping track with Mainz and Dortmund, who continued to win in impressive fashion. Thomas Tuchel’s men played a patient game against Nürnberg and pounced when space opened up in the second half. A 3-0 scoreline was a little harsh on the visitors perhaps.”

Hamburger SV 4 – 2 Stuttgart

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-11-27-hamburg-stuttgart.html

Stuttgart remain without an away win all season and Hamburg profited from an extra man advantage for over 75 minutes. Stuttgart’s Marica turned sinner from saint just minutes after equalising for Stuttgart. The Romanian, Marica, has been involved in seven of the last 10 Stuttgart goals but it was a lack of discipline that saw him red carded for dissent. That early dismissal swung the game right back in Hamburg’s favour, no doubt aiding a flattering margin of victory. I am not sure we should read too much into this result.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/nov/29/bundesliga-hamburg-stuttgart-armin-veh

“Against Stuttgart, Hamburg’s lack of direction could easily have been exposed once again. But the hosts were lucky that Stuttgart’s Romanian striker Ciprian Marica chose the wrong moment to show off his impressive grasp of the local idiom. Seven minutes after equalising, he called the referee Wolfgang Stark an ‘Arschloch’ and was duly sent packing. Marica was fined a record €50,000 for his troubles by VfB, in spite of his protestations of innocence. “I would never use such language, the referee must have misheard me”, said the 25-year-old on Sunday, while reaching for the fire extinguisher.

HSV scored three more goals against the decimated Stuttgart team but still nearly managed to slip up thanks to some awful defending and over-all shoddiness. “We can’t concede so many goal-scoring opportunities with one man up,” said defender Heiko Westermann. “We’ll never have a stable season unless we stop that.” Chances are they won’t.

It would be a surprise if Veh were to stay the course, too, as the true extent of his laissez-faire attitude cannot be kept secret forever. A new manager will come but the “great goals, absurd mistakes” mantra will ring true for longer, far beyond the city limits. As long as the Bundesliga cannot produce managers to match the calibre of its increasingly good players, it’ll remain stuck on European football’s mezzanine floor: halfway between heaven and hell.”

Bayern München 4 – 1 Eintracht Fran…

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-11-27-bayern-munich-eintracht-frankfurt.html

A powerful Bayern display of hard-running and deadly finishing (especially from those players following up on initial shots on goal). Gekas scored another goal for EF and had another effort expertly headed off the line by Breno. Ribery, Van Bommel and Demichelis all appeared for Bayern here. Now they are strong again, with key men returned, Bayern can become a betting proposition again.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/nov/29/bundesliga-hamburg-stuttgart-armin-veh

“A comfortable 4-1 win over Eintrach Frankfurt brought a smidgen of tranquility and yet another ‘peace’ between Louis van Gaal and the board, just in time for Bayern Munich’s AGM on Tuesday night. “This was our best game in the Bundesliga,” said the happy Dutchman. Apart from two goals from Anatoly Tymoschuk and another strike from Mario Gomez – his 16th in all competitions – the game was most remarkable for a series of catastrophic errors from Daniel van Buyten. The Belgian, whose father was a professional wrestler, must have his eyes on a WWF belt (as in the World’s Worst ‘Fender) because they certainly were not on the ball: he nearly let in Theofanis Gekas after a complete mis-hit and then allowed the Greek striker to equalise by falling asleep twice in the space of a second. To his credit, the 32-year-old was aware enough to ask Van Gaal to be substituted at half-time. “It takes power to say that,” said the manager generously.”

Borussia Dortmund 4 – 1 Borussia M’gla…

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-11-27-borussia-dortmund-borussia-monchengladbach.html

An easy win for Dortmund after they stepped up the pace from the 50 minute mark. BM continue to be weak defensively. They conceded from another corner kick here while their naive, high defensive line contributed to each of Dortmund’s subsequent three goals. Reuss continued his spectacular scoring form for Borussia Moenchengladbach with a first half rocket that supplied an, against the run of play, opening goal for the visitors.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/nov/29/bundesliga-hamburg-stuttgart-armin-veh

“Dortmund, however, were very good value for their 4-1 win over Gladbach. They took one half to wear down the defensive visitors (“you can’t defend deeper than they did against us,” said Jürgen Klopp), then scored three beautiful goals (Kagawa, Großkreutz, Barrios) to take the other Borussia apart with gusto. No wonder the manager had his contract extended until 2014. He and his team look untouchable this season.”

Sun 28/11/10

Werder Bremen 3 – 0 St. Pauli

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-11-28-werder-bremen-st-pauli.html

This was a straightforward 3-0 win for out of sorts Werder Bremen. The Portuguese international Almeida scored a fine hatrick of three composed finishes – before seeing red and earning an automatic suspension. My own sense is that one swallow doesn’t make a summer for Werder, for whom too many key men are still out. St Pauli look defensively poor and likely to concede a load of goals on this form.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/nov/29/bundesliga-hamburg-stuttgart-armin-veh

“Hugo (Almeida) was boss against St. Pauli, as his hat-trick bought the Werder coach, Thomas Schaaf, some valuable time. Unfortunately, the Portuguese striker hit another target 10 minutes from the end when his elbow connected squarely with Carlos Zambrano. He was sent off and is likely to miss the year’s final matches. “I was fouled throughout the game and lost my nerve at the end,” he explained.”

Köln 1 – 1 Wolfsburg

http://football-highlight.com/en/germany/bundesliga/2010-11-28-cologne-wolfsburg.html

Super-sub Cicero claimed a point for Steve McLaren’s Werder Bremen with virtually his first touch after coming on. Improving Koln had taken the lead after a goalkeeping howler from Swiss keeper Benaglio.

Press: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/nov/29/bundesliga-hamburg-stuttgart-armin-veh

“Köln’s Lukas Podolski, on the other hand, was lucky to escape with a yellow card following a similar outrage. “Two is better than one,” he thought, possibly, before ignoring the ball in order to kick Edin Dzeko where it really hurts. Köln wouldn’t be Köln if Podoslki got in trouble after the 1-1 draw with poor Wolfsburg, however. Hapless manager Michael Meier was fired on Monday morning instead, a mere five years too late by a conservative estimate.”

Results: Mainz 3–0 Nürnberg, Bayern 4–1 Frankfurt, Hoffenheim 2–2 Leverkusen, Hamburg 4–2 Stuttgart, Hannover 3–0 Freiburg, Lautern 5–0 Schalke, Dortmund 4–1 Gladbach, Bremen 3–0 St Pauli, Köln 1–1 Wolfsburg.

Fixtures This Weekend

Sat 04/12/10 Stuttgart  14 : 30  Hoffenheim

Verdict: Ragged Stuttgart were destroyed in Hamburg. Hoffenheim battled back for a brave point v Leverkusen. Stuttgart are without a win in four since a 6-0 thrashing of similar crisis club Bremen. Hoffenheim offer a bit of value at 12/5 and are worthy of consideration.

Wolfsburg  14 : 30  Werder Bremen

Verdict: Werder Bremen travel to Wolfsburg without suspended hatrick man Almeida and a whole host of others (Pizzaro, Naldo and Wesley). Grafite is out for The Wolves and with him goes a large part of Wolfsburg’s cutting edge. That shouldn’t stop the home side winning (Bremen are still best viewed in implosion mode. At least until results prove otherwise), but they don’t appeal at odds on in this gung-ho German league. Overs on the goals or a handicap punt on Wolfsburg (-1) on the Asians could be the preferable options, the thinking being that if Wolfsburg get in front Werder Bremen could collapse again.

Eintracht Fran…  14 : 30  Mainz 05

Verdict: Frankfurt are being carried by Gekas, their keeper Nikolov and Schwegler. They have lost twice consecutively conceding four in each game (albeit v Bayern and Hoffenheim). Perhaps the lustre is fading on their Honeymoon start to the season. Mainz are underwhelming too with defeats to Hannover and Freiburg prior to wins over Borussia M and Nurnberg. It is hard to take a positive view on this game. No bet.

Borussia M’gla…  14 : 30  Hannover 96

Verdict: Hannover are getting a bit of momentum going. Fourth in the table and consecutive wins over Mainz, Hamburg and Freiburg is good form. Borussia are bottom of the league on merit. I reckon Hannover are a speculative option at 11/5. Away wins at Mainz and Kaiserslautern suggest Hannover can take the points, despite being infrequent away scores (just two goals in their last five aways).

Freiburg  14 : 30  Hamburger SV

Verdict: A battle between two unreliable, unconvincing sides. No bet.

Schalke 04  17 : 30  Bayern München

Verdict: In a certain light both 11/10 Bayern and 11/4 Schalke appeal. This looks like a game best dissected in running. After 20 minutes the likely result could look significantly clearer. No bet.

Sun 05/12/10

Bayer Leverkusen  14 : 30  Köln

Verdict: Bayer Leverkusen are far too short at 5/11 versus improving Koln. Especially after losing a two goal lead to draw 2-2 at Hoffenheim. No bet.

Nürnberg  16 : 30  Borussia Dortmund

Verdict: Dortmund are an unstoppable juggernaut this season. Especially so on the road where opponents are obliged to come out and compete with them on the front foot. That sets things up perfectly for Dortmund’s lightning quick counter-attacking set-up. A price of 3/4 (58%) is relatively appealing. I am keen on Dortmund as a banker or a potential cornerstone of a double this weekend.

Summary Shortlist:

Dortmund 3/4*

Hoffenheim 12/5

Hannover 11/5 (tentative)

I have been asked to supply betting analysis on the Bundesliga for a side project/syndicate I am involved in that are looking at new ways of betting multiples using games from the top European leagues. It is an interesting approach with a 30% ROI since February (based on around four bets per week). I may well let you know more about it once the dust settles there and we have a good proofed record.

In the meantime though, I thought it might be useful to share my thoughts on the German scene with you each week and here below is what I am thinking about for the weekend. From a proofing point of view, although I am looking at multiples, I’ll record these results, from each week’s shortlisted selections, at 1pt level stakes so we can see how I am doing.

PS There is no Turkish football this week as Cihan is on holiday. I expect him to be back next week.

I like the following three sides most this week:
Stuttgart 11/4

Leverkusen 15/8

Schalke 13/10

with a second opinion needed on Wolfsburg 8/5.

Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Frankfurt 0–4 Hoffenheim

http://www.footytube.com/video/Eintracht-Frankfurt-vs-Hoffenheim-64929

As the score suggests this was a bloodless victory for Hoffenheim. The turning point was probably a turned down penalty shout for Frankfurt at 0-1 down. However, Hoffenheim played a pressing and counter-attacking game very well and Frankfurt looked vulnerable whenever the ball was played in from setpieces, crosses or through-balls. Sloppy goals, conceded when already beaten, also suggest that Frankfurt threw in the towel here.

Freiburg 1–2 Dortmund

http://www.footytube.com/video/SC-Freiburg-vs-Borussia-Dortmund-64924

A classic game of two halves. Dortmund fell behind before showing their class with a remorseless, relentless second half showing that should have yielded more than two goals (Kuba missed an incredible open goal, for example). Dortmund looked to have an obvious aerial weakness in this game, Freiburg had an obvious aerial strength, creating a number of chances from crosses. The table toppers Dortmund now boast a perfect away record with seven wins from their seven away games. Juergen Klopp is set to renew his contract at runaway Bundesliga leaders Borussia Dortmund until 2014, Kicker sports magazine reported on Thursday.

Nürnberg 1–3 Kaiserslautern

http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Nürnberg-vs-1.-Kaiserslautern-64985

Another game of two halves as Kaiserslautern streaked into a deserved 3-0 first half lead with the pacy Rivic to the fore. The second half was changed by a red card for Kaiserslautern’s Petsos in the 79th minute. Nurnberg briefly rallied but a missed penalty at 3-1 down effectively killed their chance. Again, Kaiserslautern were very impressive as an attacking force in this game.

Gladbach 2–3 Mainz

http://www.socceroverthere.com/?p=3283

Five second half goals and an end to end approach resembling basketball. The home side lost a 2-1 lead to lose 3-2 to an 86th minute goal. More great finishes, more comedy defending and both sides happy to try and outscore each other in a high tempo, open game. Gladbach’s Marco Reus ended on the losing side but his two composed finishes for the home side’s goals are worthy of mentioning.

Press:

From http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/nov/22/werder-bremen-end-of-an-era

“Some will probably say we’re still in crisis because we didn’t win 3-2 instead of 3-0,” Eugen Polanski said defiantly. Mainz 05′s first win after three defeats, away to dead-cert relegation fodder Gladbach, was celebrated as return to normal service by this year’s surprise outfit who simply refuse give up the second spot. “We were lacking courage and cohesion before but these are only details,” said a satisfied Thomas Tuchel. “The team is very settled.” Substitute Sami Allagui scored a brace to turn the match around after Marco Reus had netted two for the hosts.

Hannover 3–2 Hamburg

http://www.footytube.com/video/Hannover-96-vs-Hamburger-SV-64986

There is clearly a bit of football in this Hamburg team but precious little steel. The malaise is typified by their Brazilian Ze Roberto. So flamboyant in possession, the left winger’s weak challenge let dogged Hannover back into the game with an equaliser. Hamburg forged ahead thanks to a goal that included a foul throw and a handball in the build-up. Justice was done though as never-say-die Hannover bullied their way to three points with the sub Mike Hanke, brushing off  a weak penalty box challenge to head home the winner.

Schalke 4–0 Werder

http://www.footytube.com/video/Schalke-04-vs-Werder-Bremen-64959

Schalke used this rout against ragged Werder to confirm that they are starting to hit top gear. Raul claims Magath’s training schedule has knocked five years off his clock and the rejuvenated striker claimed the match ball with a virtuoso hatrick. In truth, this could really have been any score, judging by the highlights. Werder’s terrible day was confirmed with a pointless red card for Bargfrede.

Press:

From http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/nov/22/werder-bremen-end-of-an-era

BundesligaWerder Bremen: the end of an era?The notorious open-door policy at Bremen has been taken to a new extreme. Now there is merely a vast thoroughfare

It took a while but a hint of life did eventually return to Klaus Allofs’s pale face, along with one minute, positive thought. “We didn’t make any new mistakes today,” it occurred to the sporting director in the concrete bowels of the Veltinsarena. “Unfortunately, though,” he continued with a grimace, “we made all the old ones again.”

No one could dispute Werder Bremen’s consistency in that respect. They had started well enough away to Schalke, in “the summit of frustration” (Die Welt). But then the first goal by Christoph Metzelder saw them disintegrate like Waldmeister-flavoured Ahoj Brause in a glass of fizzy water. A hat-trick from Raúl made the result doubly misleading: Schalke weren’t all that good to have won 4-0, Werder much too bad. Double figures wouldn’t have surprised anyone.

“Apart from [Tim Wiese], you can all go home,” the 6,000 travelling supporters sang when some players tried to apologise after the final whistle. About a hundred irate fans stayed behind to block the team bus from leaving. Per Mertesacker had to get out and promise more effort next time. The next day, there were rumours that hardcore supporters might stage a protest outside the training centre; two police man were dispatched, just in case. Nothing in fact happened, but discontent in the citystate has probably never been more keenly felt. In easy-going, unhurried Bremen, they don’t whisper the word crisis lightly. Now, they’re screaming it from the rooftops.

“We don’t write ‘relegation battle’ on the board but there is no point thinking about the Champions League [for next season],” conceded Allofs. They’re 12th in the table, only four points clear of Bundesliga 2 doom. In the Champions League, they’re all but out. Confidence before the daunting trip to White Hart Lane on Wednesday couldn’t be lower. On top of it all, there is another injury. Brazilian jack-of-all-trades Wesley (hamstring) won’t travel.

Allofs is right: Bremen’s inability to defend is nothing new. But this season, they seem to have taken their notorious open-door policy to a new extreme: there is no longer any door to speak of, only a vast thoroughfare, with free, guaranteed passage to anyone who happens to be in the vicinity. Away to Inter (0-4), the northerners were so soft that Gazzetta dello Sport dubbed them “Werder Crema”. A less polite headline writer might have changed “Werder” to a similar sounding Italian word starting with an “m”. “We’re dreaming, we’re ball-watching, we’re doing nothing,” said the coach Thomas Schaaf. “Everyone’s delighted to play against us at the moment.”

In the absence of Brazilian Naldo, the comedy double-act of centre-backs Sebastian Prödl and Mertesacker is plumbing deeper depths than local pop heroes Klaus & Klaus in their heyday. The less said about Mickaël Silvestre and other faux full-backs, the better. Unfortunately for Werder, their chronic deficits at the back are no longer offset by sublime attacking football. Mesut Özil’s departure to Real Madrid has left too big a gap in the creative department. Neither Marko “The Austrian Ibra” Arnautovic, who unhelpfully combines the megalomania of Zlatan with a fraction of his talents, nor the more defensively minded Wesley have been able to make a real difference going forward. And “in midfield, Torsten Frings acts like a diva who believes she’s still seeing yesterday’s beautiful reflection in the mirror”, wrote Süddeutsche Zeitung. “He elegantly dispatches long balls into areas where someone used to make runs in the past, but where there’s only the sorry Hugo Almeida standing around offside these days.”

Increasingly, the finger of blame is pointing to Allofs, who seems to have been deserted by his sure touch in the transfer-market. A distinct lack of useful young, home-grown players compounds the trouble and it’s obvious that Schaaf, the grumpiest man in German football, doesn’t have any answers either. “We only have these players and we only have one plan. There is no plan B and no plan C. We simply have put our plan into action much better,” he insisted. “Schaaf is in danger of destroying his own monument,” wrote Die Welt.

The €60m stadium renovation has reduced the margin of error for this expensive team dramatically. Even more worryingly for Werder, Bild revealed that Schaaf has already offered his resignation in a team-talk last week. Where can they go from here? Allofs tried to scare the team into submission by freezing part of the wages in October. That trick only worked for a couple of weeks, until the missing thousands were paid out, along with November’s wages in full.

“There is no fight in the team. We break apart immediately when things don’t go according to plan,” said the midfielder Aaron Hunt, a man who seems lost in lethargy, like his team-mate Tim Borowski. Allofs’s fortunes have always been closely tied to those of Schaaf – they’ve both been in charge since 1999 – but the 53-year-old won’t hesitate to put the knife in before he goes down himself. The 0-4 at 04 was the “worst day” in his time at Bremen, he said, before putting just a touch of daylight between him and the moustachioed coach. “I still believe [Schaaf] is the right man for the job but that’s not a dogma,” he said carefully. The end of an era? It looks as if it might have begun.

Leverkusen 1–1 Bayern

http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayer-Leverkusen-vs-Bayern-München-65098

Bayern dominated this game but were undone by what Franz Beckenbauer described on commentary as ‘Kindergarten’ defending, losing the ball and conceding a penalty on the stroke of half time. DiMichelis was out, Ribery benched. Bayern cannot be followed until all the key men are back.

Press:

From http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/nov/22/werder-bremen-end-of-an-era

Bastian Schweinsteiger wore a shirt that had the sponsor’s logo upside down, he scored with a header after 84 seconds that was wrongly ruled offside and he witnessed Bayern’s defence put in yet another error-strewn, terrifying shift that had Franz Beckenbauer reach for the word “Kindergarten”. But something even more remarkable happened in the wake of the 1-1 draw (goals from Mario Gomez and Arturo Vidal (pen), Daniel van Buyten and Danijel Paranjic had both blundered) with Leverkusen on Saturday: Bayern voluntarily pulled out of the title race. Well, kind of. “We are 14 points behind Dortmund, we don’t have to think about the championship,” said the concerned sporting director Christian Nerlinger. Franz Beckenbauer went one step further, claiming, with some justification, that Borussia were currently “lightyears” ahead of Louis van Gaal’s team. Suddenly, the more mundane goal of Champions League qualification has become the greatest concern in Munich, especially since eighth-placed Bayern can’t quite bank on winning the European Cup, even if they do decide to sign Juventus left-back Domenico Criscito, 24, in January. Not one but three or four Arjen Robbens would really have to return after the winter break to give them any chance. As long as there’s still room for centre-Drecks like van Buyten or Martin Demichelis on the pitch, however, Bayern’s case is forlorn.

St Pauli 1–1 Wolfsburg

http://www.footytube.com/video/FC-Sankt-Pauli-vs-VfL-Wolfsburg-65293

St Pauli will be disappointed to have lost their win from a game they wholly dominated. Grafite was absent for a Wolfsburg side for whom Dzeko equalised in the second half. Neither side really look reliable at this stage.

Press:

From: http://defensivemidfielder.wordpress.com/2010/11/21/st-pauli-1-1-wolfsburg/

Wolfsburg were held by an industrious St. Pauli side but might consider themselves lucky to escape with a point after an abysmal first half performance.

St. Pauli were on a bad run of form coming into this Round 13 match, with just one victory in six. They’d gone 265 minutes without scoring (keeping their record as the Bundesliga’s lowest scorers in the process), despite the fact that just a few weeks ago, they were riding high in sixth.

VfL Wolfsburg, meanwhile, arrived at the Millerntor seeking only their second away success of the season. It looked like they’d have to do it without their prized attacking trio, however, as Grafite, Diego, and Edin Džeko were all deemed doubts. However, the latter pair were eventually passed fit to start.

Stuttgart 0-1 Köln

http://www.footytube.com/video/FC-Sankt-Pauli-vs-VfL-Wolfsburg-65293

Koln claimed the points with a late and controversial penalty. The big surprise here was that the goals dried up for free-scoring Stuttgart in the Mercedes Benz Arena.

Good summary of week’s action from www.Bundeligatalk.com: http://www.bundesligatalk.com/saturdays-bundesliga-review-dortmund-maintain-form-bayern-stutter/2125#comment-23922

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 26/11/10

Mainz 05 19 : 30 Nürnberg

Verdict:   Mainz were flattered by a poor Gladbach defending and Nurnberg were simply swept aside by a bravura first half show from Kaiserslautern. Instinct suggests that these team’s average strengths are overrated in the case of Mainz and underrated in the case of Nurnberg. By how much though is a riddle too far. No bet at the prices.

Sat 27/11/10

Bayern München 14 : 30 Eintracht Fran…

Verdict: Bayern effectively fell out of the title race last week (by their own reckoning) and they will only get lifted again once their stars are all returned to boost morale. Gekas’ Frankfurt have been probably flattered by the Greek’s goals, which have been papering over the cracks in a three man team (keeper, playmaker and Gekas). EF certainly came crashing down to earth on Saturday (4-0 loss v Hoffenheim). Bayern should win but the price is too short for a side that consistently stutter these days. No bet.

Hamburger SV 14 : 30 Stuttgart

Verdict:  I am just not keen on Hamburg. Their team is full of primadonnas (such as ZeRoberto and Van Nistelrooy) and there is no one prepared to do the dirty work required to win tough games. Stuttgart lost out to Koln’s late penalty last week and we surely will see a reaction. The 6-0 smashing of Werder Bremen and a 3-0 away CL win at Getafe suggest that Stuttgart have some other gears to go to (albeit inconsistently). At 11/4 you could get a fair run for your money at a decent price where the risk is factored into potential returns.

Hoffenheim 14 : 30 Bayer Leverkusen

Verdict:  Hoffenheim bounced back last week with a 4-0 drubbing of the Gekas-reliant Eintracht Frankfurt. However, other than that their recent form is scratchy and they lost their last home game to Frieburg. Fresh off a 1-1 draw with Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen are in fine form, showing a consistency only bettered by Dortmund’s runaway train. I think talk of a Hoffenheim revival is premature (based on just one result) and Leverkusen look a strong back at 15/8.

Hannover 96 14 : 30 Freiburg

Verdict:   Hannover should win this but there is no air in the price here to get excited about. No bet.

Kaiserslautern 14 : 30 Schalke 04

Verdict:   Kaiserslautern’s form in their last three games is better than the bare bones of one win suggests (v Nurnberg 3-1). However, Schalke look like a side that are finally hitting their marks and I’d be inclined to follow them at 13/10 against a Kaiserslautern side that are psychologically and defensively weak.

Borussia Dortmund 17 : 30 Borussia M’gla…

Verdict:   The Dortmund juggernaut should rumble on v Borussia M. However, there is more scope in backing Dortmund on the road where their style perfectly fits a swift, incisive, counter-attacking set-up. 1/3 at home is too short.

Sun 28/11/10

Werder Bremen 14 : 30 St. Pauli

Verdict:   Two poor teams – the former underperforming collectively, the latter lacking depth and quality. There is no bet in a game where the winner will simply emerge ‘on the day’. No bet. I’d want to lay the draw here as the first goal should really set the tone for the rest of the game.

Köln 16 : 30 Wolfsburg

Verdict:  I still can’t believe Koln are any good and a win resulting from a late penalty award v stuttering Suttgart is no universal sign of an upturn. It is a shame that you have to go back to September to find a Wolfsburg road victory (3-1 v Hamburg). That said, Koln are arguably weaker opponents than Frankfurt, Nurnberg and St Pauli. I think this is a no bet (just) but 8/5 Wolfsburg could end up looking a steal come Sunday evening – despite the fact it would be a speculative play on recent form and performances.

Summary Shortlist:

Stuttgart 11/4

Leverkusen 15/8

Schalke 13/10