Progambler Horse Betting Analyst Review Jan 2013

 

Service Name: Horse Betting Analyst	What They Specialise in: Horse Racing Tips
Website Address: www.horsebettinganalyst.com	Bets per month: 20 – 30
Subscription Fees: £499 for 6 months (Payable in 2 x 6 month blocks – Feb to July and Aug to Jan – but your first period of time can be cheaper as the period one cost changes pro rata to suit how close todays date is to their Feb and August start dates. It’s complicated to explain in a small space. Just go visit their site to determine initial period cost today.	ProGambler Discount: Nothing today but there have been PG discount offers in the past and may be again in future. Register here at ProGambler if you want future news.
	How You Get The Bets: via email

 

Name Of Service: Horse Betting Analyst

Service in brief: HBA are hardworking, progressive racing tipping service with a four year track record of quite stunning results.

 

Period Proofed By Progambler: 02/01/2011 – 26/1/2013

Service in detail: The Horse Betting Analyst has a long-term track record of good profits made each year dating back to 2011. In this context, that ensures that HBA’s record is one of the most reliable – and most consistently profitable – services out there currently.

 

Our personal proofing record dates back just one year to January 2012, however with our colleagues at The Secret Betting Club having proofed HBA since inception we can take the results as read.

 

Our headline figures are as follows:

 

Number of Selections Proofed: 291

Winners: 76

Placed: 27

Losers: 188

Outlay: 2,026pts

Profit: Advised price 431.43pts

Profit: SP 119.77pts

Advised Price ROI: 21.29%

SP ROI:  5.91%

Level stake ROI: 19.54%

Return on Capital since 2/1/2011 (based on a 200pt bank & Advised Prices): 216%

Longest Losing Run In Period: 16 (March 2012)

Longest Winning Run In Period: 4 (four winners over a weekend in October 2012 added 32pts profit).

 

NB The figures above are our own and are conservative because NO benefit of Best Odds Guarantee upside has been applied to them. HBA’s own profit records listed further below do include BOG when applicable and the enhancement in profitability is worth noting.

 

 

About Horse Betting Analyst

Horse Betting Analyst were born from the embers of two previous tipping ventures: HorseBettingIndex and Ultimate Tipster from 2010.

 

Both ventures were not without their problems, a fact that has possibly prevented HBA achieving the status they deserve currently. As a service with over 500pts profit in a calendar year using Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers their record bears comparison with anything out there it is a surprise that their doors are not currently closed to new members.

 

Reading between the lines, both HorseBettingIndex and Ultimate Tipster failed to consolidate on the kind of solid initial results we have here long-term, for a hotch-potch of reasons. These reasons are best summarised as a choice of the wrong business partners and business structure, something the Horse Betting Analyst now says fatally undermined both ventures. As clients we only ever see the public face of a business but it is a fair point to make that no business flourishes when its commercial foundations are not solid.

 

Indeed, you might say that the current members of Horse Betting Analyst are actually reaping the benefit of that hard-won and bitter experience with other ventures. The biggest lesson learned is that all good tipsters, whatever their field, need to be in control of their own business destiny and also hooked up to sympathetic partners with complementary skills. In my experience with Progambler, SBC and as a tipster in my own right at Scottish Football Bets this fact is the most common reason why ‘good tipsters go bad’.

 

And so, The Horse Betting Analyst teamed up with Ross, a thorough administrator with a background in accountancy and marketing to deliver his own tipping service from April 2011. The service has gone from strength to strength since then.

 

HBA started 2012 in a great run of form, which we covered in an initial review in February 2012.

 

Anyone taking an annual subscription on the back of that review will have been richly rewarded with more of the same and returns that equate to 81.87pts at advised prices and advised stakes. You can probably add another five or so points to that tally if betting at Best Odds Guaranteed with the likes of Bet365, PaddyPower, StanJames, William Hill and Ladbrokes.

 

Horse Betting Analyst is a clear, efficient, transparent and genuine tipping service they have also shown a desire to consistently evolve, responding to any of our criticisms and suggestions in both our previous review and subsequent correspondence in a favourable manner.

 

For example, the current restructuring of the service’s pricing downwards, is a direct result of our concern that the service was prohibitively priced for many. Services can largely charge what they like as long as the results are good but this is harder to sustain – for all concerned – when there is an inevitable down-turn in results somewhere down the line.

 

A year on, we are still waiting for that down-turn to occur and as a result, we are happy to recommend HBA as an ultra-consistent service that is offering their best ever deal to subscribers right now.

 

Typically services use a good run as the basis for a price hike but in this case Horse Betting Analyst are actually reducing their prices to encourage customer retention and to give new members a reasonable entry point to try the service.

 

From a client’s point of view, you can’t really say fairer than that.

 

Similar to Laurence Lambourn’s Equine Investments in terms of tone and temperament, HBA’s speciality is flat racing. Like Equine Investments, The Analyst quite often throws in jumps bets too, as appropriate.

 

Members receive a daily email (Monday to Saturday) featuring that day’s bets (if there are any). The selections are presented in a very clear, concise fashion.

 

Their staking plan has been devised to maximise profits and Return On Investment – using the long established principles of Value Betting that were first popularised by Mark Coton in the book of the same name, and in his Pricewise column in The Racing Post.

 

The Horse Betting Analyst says: “There are actually a wide range of types of punter who our service would be suited to – in keeping with most services, we quote our returns to £100 stakes, but the staking plan works just as well for £25 or £10 stakes. Overall, we appeal to the type of punter who knows what he’s doing rather than the so-called “mug punter” who throws good money after bad.

 

As stated in our advert within The Racing Post on 23 January 2012, “it pays to take a long term approach” when betting – which is where we can help, generating consistent good profits on an ongoing basis.”

 

Results In More Detail:

The fact that however good a tipping service is the reality is that unless they concentrate on heavily odds on selections – with a genuine odds on winning chance – then, as a client you have to be prepared for one irrefutable fact. That is, you will back more losers than winners for the duration of your subscription. You will also have to endure losing runs, sometimes bad losing runs stretching over ten consecutive losers and more. The worst one in our record for HBA is a sore 16 selections. However, with a betting bank properly applied there is no reason why you won’t be protected against the inevitable fluctuations.

The key to value betting is picking selections where their true chance of winning is greater than the odds on offer imply. The theory is that if you do this consistently well then you will be guaranteed to take a profit over time.

The upside is that, with a good service such as Horse Betting Analyst is that while you should be prepared for the inevitable losing runs that are simple fact of betting, you should regularly experience the other side of the same coin. Such an example is the sequence of four consecutive winners in October 2012 that accrued 32pts profit over the course of a weekend. That’s £3,200 to £100 per advised point.

The Question Of Best Odds Guaranteed

At this point it is only fair to give Horse Betting Analyst the floor to go through their own results – specifically with reference to Best Odds Guaranteed.

This bookmaker offer is a really contentious issue with proofing organisations and certain punters alike. However, if you are lucky enough to have viable accounts with the Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers (that comprises most of the leading high street and internet UK firms) it is a nice boost to profits.

The Best Odds Guaranteed offer means that if you take a price on a selection and the odds offered drift by the time the race is run then the bookies will pay out at the higher price. This is great news if you are a green punter or have just opened a new account. However, BOG is a perk, and a perk that is quickly reneged if you are a regularly winning punter. The fact that it is not universally available to bettors accounts for the controversy associated with it. It also, explains why out of fairness, we record our odds without reference to Best Odds Guaranteed.

Here in their own words is HBA’s latest update to clients:

The month of January has been taxing to say the least – however we have made a profit all be it small but the signs of the track record listed below give clear indicates patients is the key to long term success. We have four fair priced winners this month and a maximum bet finished 2nd beaten a short head and a last flight faller 14/1 chance that would have been at least second if not won so everything is in place for another successful year.

2013 Total + 12.80 running total

January 2013 +12.80

2012 Total = 500 points profit

December 2012 – 30.88

November 2012 + 35.1

October 2012 + 201.74

September 2012 + 100.23

August 2012 -71.2

July 2012 + 105.00

June 2012 + 19.26

May 2012 +50.35

April 2012 +28.25

March 2012 -85.84

February 2012 +52.20

January 2012 +95.57

2011 Total = 138 points profit

December 2011 +43.20

November 2011 -95.00

October 2011 -66.17

September 2011 +80.02

August 2011 -35.69

July 2011 +85.77

June 2011 +102.06

May 2011 +24.75

April 2011 +3.77

2010 Total profit = 160 points profit

August 2010 +71.00

July 2010 +71.78

June 2010 +92.26

May 2010 -45.50

April 2010 +51.78

March 2010 -59.42

February 20120 -22.62

January 2010 +0.72

2009 Total profit = 430 points

December 2009 +15.40

November 2009 +42.75

October 2009 +26.54

September 2009 +10.26

August 2009 +60.30

July 2009 +103.97

june2009 +69.94

May 2009 +51.29

April 2009 +29.20

March 2009 +20.45

Regards

‘The Analyst’

From The Stats Point Of View How Does This Service Perform?

This is a fairly steady service but like all racing services that concentrate on value selections there are inevitable ups and downs to contend with and you should be backed up by an appropriate sized betting bank before commencing – just as you should with any betting enterprise.

Historically, the high points would be shared between June and July 2011, which generated 187 points profit, plus the early months of 2012, which saw HBA bounce right back from their historic low point in March 2011 which saw a drawdown of 54pts. They hit back with a 100+ points gain over a seven week period at the start of 2011 after a similarly poor end to 2010 they hit back immediately in April 2011, ending the poor run in style with a 35pt win on the 10pt selection Abi Scarlet at Southwell.

 

As usual, you tend to learn most about tipsters’ mettle in a slump and the service have certainly made light of the low points referenced above

 

The setback led to a period of positive reflection and a confirmed resolve ‘to stick to the proven methodology without becoming distracted by things that ultimately prove non-productive in the longer term.’ Broadly speaking, this is what they have done – and more.

 

BetFair SP: Is HBA An Option For Exchange Players?

 

Many advanced punters will experience restricted accounts as a simple fact of life and may be forced to conduct their horse betting business exclusively on the exchanges.

 

With that in mind, Gregor has run the proofed record through the returns from BetFair SP and again the results are very favourable.

 

Great results but we need to factor in:

 

-   BetFair commission

 

-    The fact that place wins are possibly over egged as place betting on BetFair tends to return lower than bookies place terms.

 

Those negatives notwithstanding, there is no doubt that betting HBA’s selections on BetFair is still worthwhile.

 

 Bet: 2,036

 

Profit: 375.73pts

 

 ROI of 18.45%

 

Taking into account the above adjustments for commission and less favourable place terms Gregor would still expect an ROI that is easily 10%+ and could be enhanced with a little effort, switching between BetFair SP and early price shows.

 

Do The Results/Stats You Have Correspond To A Fair Reflection Of This Service’s Potential:

With access to a complete proofed record dating back to 2011 I think it is safe to say that we have a very good snapshot of HBA’s performance. With a record comprising almost 300 bets I also think it is a decent record upon which you can make positive projections for the future. This is specifically reassuring for those concerned by the Analyst’s involvement in Horse Betting Index and UltimateTipster.

 

On The Basis Of The Stats And/Or Your Personal Experience Of This Service, What Is Your Recommendation For Members:

With the reduction in fees and the Progambler introductory offer there has never been a better time to check out one of the very top echelon racing services out there.

 

Are The Stated Recommended Prices At Advised Stakes Attainable:

The odds advised are generally available but obviously this may become more of an issue as this service deservedly becomes more popular. For the moment though A OK.

 

Supplementary Info (Anything Else Of Note Such As Customer Service Issues, Service Practicality, Message Problems Etc):

Nothing really comes to mind for us and we are heartened to see that this service is not one that rests on its laurels on the back of good results. Indeed, they are looking to innovate at exactly the point in their results cycle when many services would be actively looking to cash in.

 

What Are The Prospects For This Service Looking Ahead

When we last reviewed Horse Betting Analyst in February 2012, Gregor, our stats man, had been monitoring the service closely and indeed following the selections with his own hard cash. These were his thoughts:

 

“This is a profitable service that I am definitely keen on and follow myself. The Analyst definitely has an edge and has proved as much over the long term. The odds advised seem generally available and I like the one email a day style, which makes this an easy to follow service. The only thing really missing is a regular review of the day/week’s results in an email. A bit more explanation/narrative is something that can help members get a real feel for a service and also reassure them during an inevitable losing run.

 

“The Analyst has been involved with other set-ups in the past but it looks like he has finally found a good format and outlet for his betting. With stability, I’d expect the results to match-up too. In summary, I would encourage folk to join Horse Betting Analyst. This is a service with a long term track record and a solid chance of being profitable in the future.”

 

All but 12 months on here is his current thinking: “Horse Betting Analyst have continued in the same vein for the last year. Any service that can rack up 500pts in a year, an ROI of 21% and an ROC of 80 per cent over the long term is a seriously good service right at the top of their game. I am even more impressed a year on because very few services can sustain this level of performance short-term, never mind consolidate it over 300 bets.”

 

 

Conclusion

 

There is no doubt Horse Betting Analyst are a service for anyone serious about their betting to consider. The results – 500pts profit in 2012 to BOG – speaks for itself, placing them right at the top of the tree amongst a small handful of long-term profitable services. The fact that they continue to improve their offer for members is an encouraging sign of a service taking their responsibilities seriously and clearly in it for the long haul. If you considered joining Horse Betting Analyst when we reviewed them initially last year then now would be an ideal time to investigate further.

 

 

 

Punter Profits is a service we’ve been monitoring here at Progambler since December 2006 a period where it has shown to offer real value for money and good profits for its members. If you are looking to simply dip your toe in the water or add something new to your existing portfolio it is definitely worth thinking about.

ProGambler.co.uk – PunterProfits Basic Service Review

Of all the emails we regularly get concerning tipping services and offers, a large proportion concern systems-based betting and I know that many of you spend your spare time pursuing the holy grail of finding an easily applied betting method that will garner profits year after year.

Sadly, most systems don’t live up to the hype long-term – conditions change, flaws emerge and the winners dry up. As a result, anyone considering this kind of betting should confine their bets to pen and paper in the first instance and initiate a rigorous period of testing, preferably over many years.

And that’s where Punter Profits National Hunt Portfolio comes in.

Punter Profits is a web-based betting community committed to providing winning systems, advice and education for its paying subscribers.

Their NH Portfolio is the result of extensive membership brainstorming and research which started by back-checking data as far back as 1991 and continues today. The NH Portfolio is now approaching three full years of monitored profits.
What that means for punters is that Punter Profits now runs six cherry-picked National Hunt betting systems that have stood the test of time.

We have been monitoring the results since December 2006 and you can see the returns from each of their six systems summarised below:

National Hunt Portfolio BreakDown By System Since Dec 2006

				SP		SP Plus
System	Bets	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit	POT	Profit	POT
A	221	104	47.1%	31	14.1%	42	19.2%
B	56	23	41.1%	-2	-3.7%	1	1.6%
C	176	73	41.5%	7	4.2%	16	9.1%
D	253	87	34.4%	13	5.1%	27	10.8%
E	127	27	21.3%	59	46.8%	79	62.6%
F	101	45	44.6%	22	21.3%	28	28.0%
Total	934	359	38.4%	130	14.0%	194	20.8%

eg £13,000 net profit to £100 level stakes at StartingPrice.

Bet at SP Plus from CentreBet instead of starting price and that Profit would have jumped to £19,400

Pretty impressive results I am sure you would agree.

You can find out more about the Punter Profits NH Portfolio here: www.PunterProfits.com

Regards

Greg Gordon

Personal Info Update 27^th Jan 2009

Back in July 2008 we introduced you all to Kevin Mather’s premium racing service Personal Info, a service we’ve been greatly taken by since initiating proofing of them in August 2007.

Six months on, we feel it is time for an update and the good news is that Personal Info have maintained the solid, consistent form they showed over their first year with us.

You can see the current scores on the doors summarised below:

Total points staked = 2,331 pts

Advised Price Return = 2,690pts

Sp Return = 2,433pts

Advised Profit = 359pts

SP profit = 102pts

% ROI advised = 15.4%

% ROI SP = 4.3%

No tips = 345

level Stake Profit = 73.29 pts

% ROI Level Stakes = 21%

Average points per stake = 6.75 pts

Average stake profit = 494.7pts

NB We find the Average Stake stats particularly useful as they give a good indication of level stakes profitability when betting at a stake level equivalent to a service’s average stake per bet. As such, they are a great guide in terms of finding your own personal staking levels with a service.

In our initial report covering 1st August 2007 – 21st July 2008 Personal Info recorded profits as follows:

Service

Adv Pt

Return

Return

Profit

Profit

% Ret on Invest

No

Lev Stake 1pt

Average

Av Stake

Outlay

Adv Price

SP Price

Adv Price

SP Price

Adv Price

SP Price

Tips

Profit

% Ret

Pts/Tip

Profit

Personal Info

1634

1909

1726

274

92.0

16.8%

5.6%

237

57.8

24.4%

6.9

398

In the interim, July 21^st 2008 – January 24^th 2009 they have staked an additional 697pts over 108 selections, returning an additional profit to advised stakes of 85pts.

The percentage return on investment figure of 15.4% to advised prices is pretty much consistent with the 16.8% equivalent figure recorded in July, which again is very reassuring. As our initial admiration for Personal Info grew from their consistency of returns and low volatility in terms of losing runs, the latest figures confirm our original conclusion, namely: Personal Info isn’t cheap, but it does appear to offer a solid prospect of long-term profits – especially for clients prepared to invest with a decent-sized betting bank.

Over all Personal Info have much to recommend them. A low level of volatility and a regular flow of winners will be good for most punters’ pockets and ongoing confidence.

The profits also look attainable – especially for those taking a ‘middle-ground’ level average stakes approach.

The workload involved is pleasingly low and should fit comfortably into most busy people’s work routines. It is very rare to have to place any more than a couple of bets on any given day and for the most part, the prices appear to be largely attainable – although, as these selections have the wind of strong stable confidence behind them, prices do contract and the returns at SP, as you would expect, are significantly lower.

Since our initial report, Personal Info have carried on in a pleasingly similar vein to much of the last 18 months. The highpoint of their recent returns was the period of 19^th November 2008 – 13^th December 2008. During this 24 day sequence, Personal Info recommended 17 selections at prices between 0.33 and 7.0. They racked up 13 winners (including eight consecutive winners) and one placed selection – losing on only three occasions and adding 58 points profit to their account.

That is exceptional tipping by any standard.

Naturally enough, no one could be expected to maintain these levels of return over the longer period and January has been a rare poor month for the service resulting in a loss of 12 points. However, Personal Info ended the proofing period with a winner – a 12pt win bet on Diamond Harry – and there is no reason to believe that the current downturn is anything other than a blip, a typical seasonal correction.

Like all racing services out there, Kevin Mather has found January a frustrating month from a punting perspective with numerous meetings cancelled due to wintry weather.

Indeed the tipster estimates that he missed out on ‘more than a dozen’ selections that he would otherwise have advised had their meetings not been abandoned. That seems completely consistent with the testimony of the other racing services we monitor at ProGambler and it is a comment I’d be happy to take on trust.

Since Diamond Harry won on Saturday to end the period contained in the latest stats, Personal Info have had two subsequent bets – both winners. Gone Hunting was a 7pt winner advised at 10/11, Den of Iniquity was a 2pt winner advised at 5/2. The results mean that Personal Info are on a run of seven winners from their last 10 selections advised and they are now on target to turn January into a break even/winning month after an unpromising start. Kevin Mather says it is the perfect example of Personal Info’s ‘Bouncebackability’. It certainly suggests that Personal Info will go into February in good form.

In summary then, I’d be happy to recommend Personal Info to patient, realistic clients looking for a steady and consistent profit from their membership with a minimal workload and attainable prices.

Exclusive ProGambler Membership Offer And Service Details:

Personal Info have agreed to offer a 15% discount to ProGambler subscribers on the fees listed below.

If paying online enter progambler in the promotional reference field when prompted. You should note the discount applied to the calcs in the order form.

Alternatively if you wish to pay by card over the phone, again simply tell them you wish to claim the progambler 15% discount.

Name of Service: Personal Info

Contact: Kevin Mather

Telephone: (01942) 707171 mobile: 0791 379 2678

Website address: www.personal-info.co.uk

The Service In Brief:

PERSONAL INFO is a high class horseracing advisory Service run by a professional tipster.

What sports does the service cover: UK horseracing

NEW PRICE LISTINGS:

THE MAINLINE MEMBERSHIP Price List:

3 Months £459 (£153 per Month pro rata)

6 Months £768 (£128 per Month pro rata)

12 Months £1,248 (£104 per Month pro rata)

THE MAX BETS ONLY Price List:

The next 25 MAX BETS for £359

The next 50 MAX BET for £559

ALL MAX BETS for 12 Months for £659

Current ProGambler deal: Personal Info are offering a 15% reduction in fees for new members

(Quote the CODE: progambler in the ref box on the online application form or when calling by phone to take advantage of the discount).

Bet Frequency:

The MAINLINE will advise around 25-30 bets per month.

The MAX BETS are very occasional, sometimes they go 2 or 3 weeks without a selection.

How are messages delivered: Messages are delivered via an 0870 national call rate number or via a secure members area on the Personal Info site (or you can have both options). MAX BETS members receive text or email alerts because there can be two or three weeks between bets. However, because there are MAINLINE bets advised most days there is no real need for alerts on the MAINLINE service. Instead, clients are informed to either call or login each day from approx 1.15 pm in the summer months. This time will change during the winter.

What is the betting philosophy behind the service:

Basically there are two kinds of racing advisory services available, firstly, those that pass on insider information only and secondly, those that concentrate on their own stats and form study exclusively.

The PERSONAL INFO services, exist somewhere in between these models. According to Kevin Mather, the insider information that he receives from retained stable contacts, is initially used to sift through the days’ cards and compile a shortlist of races to focus on. The insider information allied to his own form and stats work gives him the added edge that his team need to make rewards long term. Working solely on short-listed races where they have the benefit of both a firm view and useful inside info they then bring their experience to bear to take a view on the value (or not) attached to their preferred selection before advising a bet to members.

Obviously, from time to time the Personal Info team receive positives about horses running against their selection and again, any decision on whether to bet (or not) will be considered in light of all the information at their disposal. In some cases they would then need to decide to either give that race a swerve or very occasionally they advise Dutching (backing multiple selections) in the race concerned to make best use of the info at their disposal.

Period Monitored: ProGambler have monitored Personal Info’s service results from 1st August 2007 – 26th January 2009.

They Say:

This is a link to the latest report on Personal Info’s own website: http://www.personal-info.co.uk

If you intend to join don’t forget to save a few £ by quoting the discount code progambler.

Boasting a profit on investment figure of 31 per cent, Observer Tipster Survey Profits of £5,128.75 and a strike rate of 17%. The Mathematician aka Guy Ward had every reason to be pleased with his performance under the glare of public scrutiny back in 2005/06.

Nothing stands still in the world of betting however and, two years after my initial research began, Ward is anticipating his best year ever telling members earlier this week: “I think I have taken it to a different level this season and results are showing this. That’s why we are going to have a very interesting season. Watch this year because I plan for a Masterclass and a record profit”.

So is it an idle boast? Recent results suggest not.

Since year two monitoring began again, on July 4th 2006, that profit on investment figure has been boosted to 47.78%. Returns are up too – to advised prices 50.5pts, 44.79pts at SP. The strike rate has been boosted to 36.7% with 40 win and placed selections from 109 account bets. Ward’s 26 winners were recommended at prices ranging between 11/10 and 14/1. His longest winning run has been three winners (twice). His longest losing sequence has been nine selections.

When looked at over the course of the last eleven months as a whole, the results are more remarkable given that they coincided with a National Hunt season that proved to be a real winter of discontent for virtually every major tipster in the country. With variable weather conditions throughout the back end of the year inhibiting the emergence of reliable form or trends many services saw all their summer profits simply frittered away, others incurred a deficit, others still have seen their slump drag on into the summer.

As such, some Progambler members, who took advantage of a previous subscription offer, may have been distinctly underwhelmed with The Mathematician’s performance during the jumps campaign. However, in retrospect, his decision to rein in his ambitions and recommend relatively few bets in this sticky period looks like a masterstroke – even if it proved frustrating for members who had paid for tips. The Mathematician recommended a mere 15 account bets between January 3rd and May 5th this year. Since then however, the frequency has returned to ‘normal’ levels with another 14 account bets slated between May 11th and June 12th this year.

Of course, many of you will already know The Mathematician’s work from the free content on this site. Since the inception of Progambler’s free Saturday Column in November last year, The Mathematician has been providing analysis and selections every Saturday. He began with a bang tipping up State of Play at 8/1 to win The Hennessy. Last Saturday’s column (9th June 2007) tipped up three out of three winners – Eager Igor 4/1,  Eradicate 11/4 and Drifting Gold 6/4. Those column contributions, archived here on the site, are a representative selection of the kind of exhaustive info, angles and analysis that is made available to The Mathematician’s members each lunchtime via email.

As I’ve said before, each message typically combines the day’s featured bets (account bets) alongside analysis of usually around ten supporting races on the day’s cards with accompanying break-downs that highlight potential betting strategies for each race, shortlists of positive and negative runners based on stats and historical trends, horses to lay on the exchanges and runners that can be backed in combination in the same race with the aim of securing a profit.

In common with the best racing advisor services (as opposed to simple tipping operations) the accent at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk is very much a commitment to empowering members to make better, more informed, betting choices, alongside showcasing the headline account tips that are the subject of Progambler’s ongoing monitoring. For example, The Mathematician’s excellent member’s web forum, unlike the majority of betting sites, is a pretty egalitarian place where new members are welcomed with open arms and no question is too trivial for either Guy or his extended community of seasoned and novice bettors alike. As a result, Guy Ward’s service particularly attracts both women and older bettors – two constituencies who are not well served elsewhere by bookmakers, websites or the betting industry as a whole.

As The Saturday Columns probably illustrate, The Mathematician service is not suitable for everyone. Those looking for a simple horse name, time and race will be frustrated by Guy Ward’s singular writing style and dense messages that can stretch to thousands of words. However, after even a few months of membership most members, just like myself, find a way to use the messages that chimes with their personal betting philosophy. With demands on my time, I simply cut to the chase and concentrate on backing Guy’s account selections. Other members lay his negatives on the exchanges, while others still, look to combine horses in multiple bets or back through a televised card using his advice.

As a service based on constantly evolving stats and form research, Guy Ward’s service inevitably has the feel of an ongoing work in progress. Nevertheless, The Mathematician’s confident prediction quoted at the head of this report is indicative of both the growing refinement and increased confidence in his methodologies and daily messages that I have witnessed over the last two years.

I’d heartily recommend that you sign up for a membership and test with your own eyes. There is a no quibble refund guarantee with his service if it does not suit your personal style.

Visit his site for more info www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Equine Investments Progambler report 26th April 2007

Now posted: the first report from year two.
We’ve been promising you regular updates on The Observer/Progambler Year Two tipster stable for quite some time now but with the additional commitments and admin that come with monitoring a greater number of services it has taken  a bit longer than expected to pull together.

We’ve also taken the decision to deal with each service on its merits, as opposed to lumping everything together is we did in The Observer reports. It’s a simple function of having more space on the site.

Anyway here is our first report, on Equine Investments, it may not be a service many of you will have heard of but it is definitely a service that enjoys a good reputation in the right circles. We’ve also included a strictly limited membership deal for anyone on the Progambler mailing list (or their friends) and it is our intention to offer regular deals and promotions on services we are monitoring and books and products we have road-tested and like.

As always your feedback is greatly appreciated.

Best wishes,

Greg
Equine Investments Progambler report 26th April 2007

Having been monitoring Equine Investments for the last ten months I am really looking forward to them re-starting their service again after their break between the all weather season and the flat proper reaching full cry in May.

Equine Investments is a flat racing only service covering both the turf and all weather seasons. It is the brainchild of Laurence Lambourn, a professional gambler based in the North West and his business associate and fellow pro gambler, Tim.

It is also one of the only services I know of that offers a profit guarantee – in this case, a guarantee of 20pts profit for the flat season and 30pts profit annually. Membership is extended free of charge until the profit target is met to level stakes.

During the period I have monitored – July 14th 2006 up to 21st March 2007 (the service starts again on 1st May to coincide with the turf form settling down), Equine Investments recommended 186 bets. They have had 39 winners (a strike rate of   21%). Winners were recommended at odds of between 8/5 and 14/1 (x2). Most of the bets fell within the 9/2 to 12/1 range.

Their longest winning run was 3 selections (x3), their longest losing run was 17 consecutive losers (with 14 losers x 2 in two other losing runs). There are very few favourites selected and no odds on recommendations during this period. They recorded profits of £5,180.46 to £20 per point at recommended stakes using a staking system of 2-10 points. The maximum bet placed in this period was 5 pts win (regularly).

Their Profit on investment of 43.28%. According to their website they have achieved annual return on investment figures between 28.69% and 50.32% in each of their five years in business. On the basis of my experience to date, I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of these figures or the integrity of this service.

Laurence started punting full time in 1999 after he accepted a voluntary redundancy that allowed him to put his betting on a professional footing. A former Senior computer operator with Lloyds TSB, unsurprisingly his approach combines database-derived racing research with video form analysis, race reading, traditional form work and an interest in pace and draw bias advantages for runners. Like Steve Lewis Hamilton for example, Laurence’s selection process begins and ends with his own set of prices which he compares against available bookmaker odds to inform his bet and stake selection. Most weeks he recommends between 5-10 bets with no bet days relatively common.
Laurence says: “The main thing you are paying for is my ability to accurately assess horses’ chances with my own prices, quality research – using data and techniques that market forces rarely take into account – and the simple hard slog of endless form work, video analysis and in some cases 16 hour days spent studying the following day’s cards.”

The bets are delivered generally in two daily emails sent early and around midday (clients can also access the bets on a national rate call line or by free text messages if preferred). Laurence concentrates 90% of his betting on handicaps that are priced up early by all the major bookmakers and the instructions are concise and easy to follow featuring a selection, time, meeting, a stake and the recommended best price odds. The second email provides any additional bets (if any) and the rationale behind the day’s selections.

I particularly value the ease of use and the transparency of this service. Laurence was recommended to Progambler as a genuine and professional operator and I am happy to say this has been my impression of this dynamic and so far, profitable service,

As a service very much focussed on its clients, Equine Investment keeps a smaller membership than many services. Laurence’s primary concern is that for services with hundreds of members it is well nigh impossible to get bets placed at the recommended prices.

Certainly, more than any other service I am monitoring Equine Investment’s selections appear to regularly become the subject of major gambles as the day progresses.

As a slight negative, anyone considering this service would probably need to ensure that they can firstly, take advantage of early prices (within 30 minutes of the bets being released) and also, that they have access to accounts with a portfolio of different bookmakers as those best prices invariably do not hang around for long. It should certainly make all the difference profit-wise with some selections sometimes halving in price over the course of a few hours. The upside of this of course, is that you do have confidence that the horses you back on their recommendation are fit and fancied.

Website: http://www.equineinvestments.co.uk
Current Fees :

Unfortunately membership for Equine Investments is officially closed.