Progambler Horse Betting Analyst Review Jan 2013
|Service Name: Horse Betting Analyst||What They Specialise in: Horse Racing Tips|
|Website Address: www.horsebettinganalyst.com||Bets per month: 20 – 30|
|Subscription Fees: £499 for 6 months (Payable in 2 x 6 month blocks – Feb to July and Aug to Jan – but your first period of time can be cheaper as the period one cost changes pro rata to suit how close todays date is to their Feb and August start dates. It’s complicated to explain in a small space. Just go visit their site to determine initial period cost today.
||ProGambler Discount: Nothing today but there have been PG discount offers in the past and may be again in future. Register here at ProGambler if you want future news.|
|How You Get The Bets: via email|
Name Of Service: Horse Betting Analyst
Service in brief: HBA are hardworking, progressive racing tipping service with a four year track record of quite stunning results.
Period Proofed By Progambler: 02/01/2011 – 26/1/2013
Service in detail: The Horse Betting Analyst has a long-term track record of good profits made each year dating back to 2011. In this context, that ensures that HBA’s record is one of the most reliable – and most consistently profitable – services out there currently.
Our personal proofing record dates back just one year to January 2012, however with our colleagues at The Secret Betting Club having proofed HBA since inception we can take the results as read.
Our headline figures are as follows:
Number of Selections Proofed: 291
Profit: Advised price 431.43pts
Profit: SP 119.77pts
Advised Price ROI: 21.29%
SP ROI: 5.91%
Level stake ROI: 19.54%
Return on Capital since 2/1/2011 (based on a 200pt bank & Advised Prices): 216%
Longest Losing Run In Period: 16 (March 2012)
Longest Winning Run In Period: 4 (four winners over a weekend in October 2012 added 32pts profit).
NB The figures above are our own and are conservative because NO benefit of Best Odds Guarantee upside has been applied to them. HBA’s own profit records listed further below do include BOG when applicable and the enhancement in profitability is worth noting.
About Horse Betting Analyst
Horse Betting Analyst were born from the embers of two previous tipping ventures: HorseBettingIndex and Ultimate Tipster from 2010.
Both ventures were not without their problems, a fact that has possibly prevented HBA achieving the status they deserve currently. As a service with over 500pts profit in a calendar year using Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers their record bears comparison with anything out there it is a surprise that their doors are not currently closed to new members.
Reading between the lines, both HorseBettingIndex and Ultimate Tipster failed to consolidate on the kind of solid initial results we have here long-term, for a hotch-potch of reasons. These reasons are best summarised as a choice of the wrong business partners and business structure, something the Horse Betting Analyst now says fatally undermined both ventures. As clients we only ever see the public face of a business but it is a fair point to make that no business flourishes when its commercial foundations are not solid.
Indeed, you might say that the current members of Horse Betting Analyst are actually reaping the benefit of that hard-won and bitter experience with other ventures. The biggest lesson learned is that all good tipsters, whatever their field, need to be in control of their own business destiny and also hooked up to sympathetic partners with complementary skills. In my experience with Progambler, SBC and as a tipster in my own right at Scottish Football Bets this fact is the most common reason why ‘good tipsters go bad’.
And so, The Horse Betting Analyst teamed up with Ross, a thorough administrator with a background in accountancy and marketing to deliver his own tipping service from April 2011. The service has gone from strength to strength since then.
HBA started 2012 in a great run of form, which we covered in an initial review in February 2012.
Anyone taking an annual subscription on the back of that review will have been richly rewarded with more of the same and returns that equate to 81.87pts at advised prices and advised stakes. You can probably add another five or so points to that tally if betting at Best Odds Guaranteed with the likes of Bet365, PaddyPower, StanJames, William Hill and Ladbrokes.
Horse Betting Analyst is a clear, efficient, transparent and genuine tipping service they have also shown a desire to consistently evolve, responding to any of our criticisms and suggestions in both our previous review and subsequent correspondence in a favourable manner.
For example, the current restructuring of the service’s pricing downwards, is a direct result of our concern that the service was prohibitively priced for many. Services can largely charge what they like as long as the results are good but this is harder to sustain – for all concerned – when there is an inevitable down-turn in results somewhere down the line.
A year on, we are still waiting for that down-turn to occur and as a result, we are happy to recommend HBA as an ultra-consistent service that is offering their best ever deal to subscribers right now.
Typically services use a good run as the basis for a price hike but in this case Horse Betting Analyst are actually reducing their prices to encourage customer retention and to give new members a reasonable entry point to try the service.
From a client’s point of view, you can’t really say fairer than that.
Similar to Laurence Lambourn’s Equine Investments in terms of tone and temperament, HBA’s speciality is flat racing. Like Equine Investments, The Analyst quite often throws in jumps bets too, as appropriate.
Members receive a daily email (Monday to Saturday) featuring that day’s bets (if there are any). The selections are presented in a very clear, concise fashion.
Their staking plan has been devised to maximise profits and Return On Investment – using the long established principles of Value Betting that were first popularised by Mark Coton in the book of the same name, and in his Pricewise column in The Racing Post.
The Horse Betting Analyst says: “There are actually a wide range of types of punter who our service would be suited to – in keeping with most services, we quote our returns to £100 stakes, but the staking plan works just as well for £25 or £10 stakes. Overall, we appeal to the type of punter who knows what he’s doing rather than the so-called “mug punter” who throws good money after bad.
As stated in our advert within The Racing Post on 23 January 2012, “it pays to take a long term approach” when betting – which is where we can help, generating consistent good profits on an ongoing basis.”
Results In More Detail:
The fact that however good a tipping service is the reality is that unless they concentrate on heavily odds on selections – with a genuine odds on winning chance – then, as a client you have to be prepared for one irrefutable fact. That is, you will back more losers than winners for the duration of your subscription. You will also have to endure losing runs, sometimes bad losing runs stretching over ten consecutive losers and more. The worst one in our record for HBA is a sore 16 selections. However, with a betting bank properly applied there is no reason why you won’t be protected against the inevitable fluctuations.
The key to value betting is picking selections where their true chance of winning is greater than the odds on offer imply. The theory is that if you do this consistently well then you will be guaranteed to take a profit over time.
The upside is that, with a good service such as Horse Betting Analyst is that while you should be prepared for the inevitable losing runs that are simple fact of betting, you should regularly experience the other side of the same coin. Such an example is the sequence of four consecutive winners in October 2012 that accrued 32pts profit over the course of a weekend. That’s £3,200 to £100 per advised point.
The Question Of Best Odds Guaranteed
At this point it is only fair to give Horse Betting Analyst the floor to go through their own results – specifically with reference to Best Odds Guaranteed.
This bookmaker offer is a really contentious issue with proofing organisations and certain punters alike. However, if you are lucky enough to have viable accounts with the Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers (that comprises most of the leading high street and internet UK firms) it is a nice boost to profits.
The Best Odds Guaranteed offer means that if you take a price on a selection and the odds offered drift by the time the race is run then the bookies will pay out at the higher price. This is great news if you are a green punter or have just opened a new account. However, BOG is a perk, and a perk that is quickly reneged if you are a regularly winning punter. The fact that it is not universally available to bettors accounts for the controversy associated with it. It also, explains why out of fairness, we record our odds without reference to Best Odds Guaranteed.
Here in their own words is HBA’s latest update to clients:
The month of January has been taxing to say the least – however we have made a profit all be it small but the signs of the track record listed below give clear indicates patients is the key to long term success. We have four fair priced winners this month and a maximum bet finished 2nd beaten a short head and a last flight faller 14/1 chance that would have been at least second if not won so everything is in place for another successful year.
2013 Total + 12.80 running total
January 2013 +12.80
2012 Total = 500 points profit
December 2012 – 30.88
November 2012 + 35.1
October 2012 + 201.74
September 2012 + 100.23
August 2012 -71.2
July 2012 + 105.00
June 2012 + 19.26
May 2012 +50.35
April 2012 +28.25
March 2012 -85.84
February 2012 +52.20
January 2012 +95.57
2011 Total = 138 points profit
December 2011 +43.20
November 2011 -95.00
October 2011 -66.17
September 2011 +80.02
August 2011 -35.69
July 2011 +85.77
June 2011 +102.06
May 2011 +24.75
April 2011 +3.77
2010 Total profit = 160 points profit
August 2010 +71.00
July 2010 +71.78
June 2010 +92.26
May 2010 -45.50
April 2010 +51.78
March 2010 -59.42
February 20120 -22.62
January 2010 +0.72
2009 Total profit = 430 points
December 2009 +15.40
November 2009 +42.75
October 2009 +26.54
September 2009 +10.26
August 2009 +60.30
July 2009 +103.97
May 2009 +51.29
April 2009 +29.20
March 2009 +20.45
From The Stats Point Of View How Does This Service Perform?
This is a fairly steady service but like all racing services that concentrate on value selections there are inevitable ups and downs to contend with and you should be backed up by an appropriate sized betting bank before commencing – just as you should with any betting enterprise.
Historically, the high points would be shared between June and July 2011, which generated 187 points profit, plus the early months of 2012, which saw HBA bounce right back from their historic low point in March 2011 which saw a drawdown of 54pts. They hit back with a 100+ points gain over a seven week period at the start of 2011 after a similarly poor end to 2010 they hit back immediately in April 2011, ending the poor run in style with a 35pt win on the 10pt selection Abi Scarlet at Southwell.
As usual, you tend to learn most about tipsters’ mettle in a slump and the service have certainly made light of the low points referenced above
The setback led to a period of positive reflection and a confirmed resolve ‘to stick to the proven methodology without becoming distracted by things that ultimately prove non-productive in the longer term.’ Broadly speaking, this is what they have done – and more.
BetFair SP: Is HBA An Option For Exchange Players?
Many advanced punters will experience restricted accounts as a simple fact of life and may be forced to conduct their horse betting business exclusively on the exchanges.
With that in mind, Gregor has run the proofed record through the returns from BetFair SP and again the results are very favourable.
Great results but we need to factor in:
- BetFair commission
- The fact that place wins are possibly over egged as place betting on BetFair tends to return lower than bookies place terms.
Those negatives notwithstanding, there is no doubt that betting HBA’s selections on BetFair is still worthwhile.
ROI of 18.45%
Taking into account the above adjustments for commission and less favourable place terms Gregor would still expect an ROI that is easily 10%+ and could be enhanced with a little effort, switching between BetFair SP and early price shows.
Do The Results/Stats You Have Correspond To A Fair Reflection Of This Service’s Potential:
With access to a complete proofed record dating back to 2011 I think it is safe to say that we have a very good snapshot of HBA’s performance. With a record comprising almost 300 bets I also think it is a decent record upon which you can make positive projections for the future. This is specifically reassuring for those concerned by the Analyst’s involvement in Horse Betting Index and UltimateTipster.
On The Basis Of The Stats And/Or Your Personal Experience Of This Service, What Is Your Recommendation For Members:
With the reduction in fees and the Progambler introductory offer there has never been a better time to check out one of the very top echelon racing services out there.
Are The Stated Recommended Prices At Advised Stakes Attainable:
The odds advised are generally available but obviously this may become more of an issue as this service deservedly becomes more popular. For the moment though A OK.
Supplementary Info (Anything Else Of Note Such As Customer Service Issues, Service Practicality, Message Problems Etc):
Nothing really comes to mind for us and we are heartened to see that this service is not one that rests on its laurels on the back of good results. Indeed, they are looking to innovate at exactly the point in their results cycle when many services would be actively looking to cash in.
What Are The Prospects For This Service Looking Ahead
When we last reviewed Horse Betting Analyst in February 2012, Gregor, our stats man, had been monitoring the service closely and indeed following the selections with his own hard cash. These were his thoughts:
“This is a profitable service that I am definitely keen on and follow myself. The Analyst definitely has an edge and has proved as much over the long term. The odds advised seem generally available and I like the one email a day style, which makes this an easy to follow service. The only thing really missing is a regular review of the day/week’s results in an email. A bit more explanation/narrative is something that can help members get a real feel for a service and also reassure them during an inevitable losing run.
“The Analyst has been involved with other set-ups in the past but it looks like he has finally found a good format and outlet for his betting. With stability, I’d expect the results to match-up too. In summary, I would encourage folk to join Horse Betting Analyst. This is a service with a long term track record and a solid chance of being profitable in the future.”
All but 12 months on here is his current thinking: “Horse Betting Analyst have continued in the same vein for the last year. Any service that can rack up 500pts in a year, an ROI of 21% and an ROC of 80 per cent over the long term is a seriously good service right at the top of their game. I am even more impressed a year on because very few services can sustain this level of performance short-term, never mind consolidate it over 300 bets.”
There is no doubt Horse Betting Analyst are a service for anyone serious about their betting to consider. The results – 500pts profit in 2012 to BOG – speaks for itself, placing them right at the top of the tree amongst a small handful of long-term profitable services. The fact that they continue to improve their offer for members is an encouraging sign of a service taking their responsibilities seriously and clearly in it for the long haul. If you considered joining Horse Betting Analyst when we reviewed them initially last year then now would be an ideal time to investigate further.