September 2010

When we first announced the signing up of TheNagMan for proofing we suggested that it’s been a quiet year for new services with no-one really stepping forward to challenge the established names in the worlds of both racing and sports betting.

Since that first report at the start of the summer it’s been a poor summer for virtually every racing service with even our most favoured ‘hardy perennials’ taking a bit of a battering.

Anyone who has picked up a racing service that is turning a consistent profit just now is doing well and the performance, therefore, of every racing service out there must be viewed in that context.

There are many theories as to why the current racing picture is so unreliable from exchanges-related chicanery to incompetent going reports from the courses that are creating havoc with the form. It seems like there are a load of issues to be played out before we can say with confidence whether we are seeing a summer blip or something more damaging longer-term – a fundamental change in the underlying dynamics of racing. If the latter is the case, then, as yet, these fundamental changes are going undetected by the leading players on the punting scene.

TheNagMan

We began proofing TheNagMan following a year of solid, impressive name-checks from all the right sources. And this, our first full report, covers the period of 29th March 2010 – 31st August.

Not to be confused with the formerly equally successful system-based service www.nagman.com, this relatively new service is the product of a star chamber of racings brightest minds. This tight affiliation includes form and market analysts, racing insiders and a group of pro punters with a direct line to the workings of key trainers and owners. The group are understandably keen to keep their identities – and activities – out of the limelight and under wraps.

Taken over the longer term, the results have been very impressive – particularly since a new key contact joined the TheNagMan network in December.

Here is a reminder of their scores on the doors so far (below) as per the services own records up until March 2010 as featured in our initial report.

I’d be inclined to take these ‘historical stats’ at face value based on feedback we’ve seen on the likes of The Secret Betting Club forum and our own knowledge of the TheNagMan operation and the people behind it.

Obviously, even after five months of our own proofing, it is early days for our record of this service. The next six months, I should think, will establish the longer-term provenance of TheNagMan.

Our proofing pretty much started with the 33/1 winner of The Irish Grand National Blue Seacracker at 33/1. And that winner, understandably, looms large in this year’s returns. That one selection earned over 23pts profit for TheNagMan .

Up to March 2010 The NagMans stated long-term stats were –

Total Bets 562

Points Staked 1015.5

Returns 1320.4pts

Profits 304.9pts

ROI % 30%

However, since our personal proofing began on March 29th we have returned the following results:

Service

Adv Pt

Return

Return

Profit

Profit

% Ret on Invest

No

Lev Stake 1pt

Average

Av Stake

Outlay

Adv Price

SP Price

Adv Price

SP Price

Adv Price

SP Price

Tips

Profit

% Ret

Pts/Tip

Profit

TheNagMan

453

472

394

18.9

-59.5

4.16%

-13.1%

262

12.3

4.7%

1.73

21.1

However these results do need qualifying as, I reckon, they are slightly better in reality than the bare numbers above suggest.

Firstly, it is worth reiterating that any profit this summer has to be adjudged a success – such has been the general carnage in this sector of expertise.

Secondly, where TheNagMan have advised selections at Best Odds Guaranteed they have actually recorded better returns than those we have recorded.

However, with Best Odds Guaranteed not universally offered by bookmakers and also restricted as an offer for many higher stakes punters’ accounts we prefer to keep things simple by recording winners at the price advised by the service in their message. In this case though, that would legitimately allow TheNagMan to claim that July (a -2.25pt losing month for our records ) was in fact profitable.

August obviously ended on a downer for the service, coinciding as it did, with a summer break. They say: “August turned out to be our first ever losing month recording a loss of 15.9 points, which of course is disappointing, but nothing to worry about in the overall scheme of things. To put this into perspective before August we have had 15 consecutive winning months since the inception of TheNagMan in May 2009 and we have still made an overall profit of 314.4 points.”

Although we’d argue over the fine print a bit it is worth noting that The Nagman have recorded a profit in six of the last seven month’s since our proofing began.

Fees:

Normal fees for TheNagMan as as follows:

£149 for 1 month, £499 for 6 months & £849 for 12 months membership.

However we have bartered a bit extra for our viewers here with extra time added to the above durations for ProGambler viewers.

To get access to the additional free membership time you need to join via a secret page on their site.

Here is the link: TheNagMan Special Deal Page

Some of you may want to act now. Certainly taken as a whole the service record is great and, if you are prepared to give them leeway over an under whelming summer, you can take the view that they are coping with tricky betting conditions as well as anyone right now.

The TheNagMan service plans to cap membership in the near future with a view to both maintaining the available prices for selections and also protecting valued sources within their network. With that in mind, no official results are being displayed on their website.

Those behind the TheNagMan are extremely keen to maintain a low profile and they say: “We are trying our hardest to stay below the radar and protect our contacts both in the betting world and in the stables.”

One issue that has dogged TheNagMan , particularly on internet forums, has been a concern that the service has been plagiarising selections from rival services. The Mathematician, Packed Pockets, Hugh Taylor, Each Way Value System and especially Equine Investments have all put up prominent selections that have subsequently been followed by TheNagMan. This is something we feel we must mention, as it is obviously impossible to evaluate the long-term prospects of a ‘pirate’ or semi-‘pirate’ service that passes of others’ work as its own. However, a spokesman for TheNagMan refutes the claim of plagiarism saying that a large part of TheNagMan’s arsenal is info on gambles and fancied horses they say: “Obviously this means that at times we will want to back horses that other services have put up too based on our own contacts’ information.”

Obviously, here at Progambler, we will continue to monitor the TheNagMan over the coming months and we will update you as we go. Our first impressions though are that it is very much a service that we still want to have in our portfolio for the time being.

If you want to give them a go don’t forget to secure for yourself the extra value terms for ProGambler readers by using the deal page below

TheNagMan Special Deal Page

Punter Profits is a service we’ve been monitoring here at Progambler since December 2006 a period where it has shown to offer real value for money and good profits for its members. If you are looking to simply dip your toe in the water or add something new to your existing portfolio it is definitely worth thinking about.

ProGambler.co.uk – PunterProfits Basic Service Review

Of all the emails we regularly get concerning tipping services and offers, a large proportion concern systems-based betting and I know that many of you spend your spare time pursuing the holy grail of finding an easily applied betting method that will garner profits year after year.

Sadly, most systems don’t live up to the hype long-term – conditions change, flaws emerge and the winners dry up. As a result, anyone considering this kind of betting should confine their bets to pen and paper in the first instance and initiate a rigorous period of testing, preferably over many years.

And that’s where Punter Profits National Hunt Portfolio comes in.

Punter Profits is a web-based betting community committed to providing winning systems, advice and education for its paying subscribers.

Their NH Portfolio is the result of extensive membership brainstorming and research which started by back-checking data as far back as 1991 and continues today. The NH Portfolio is now approaching three full years of monitored profits.
What that means for punters is that Punter Profits now runs six cherry-picked National Hunt betting systems that have stood the test of time.

We have been monitoring the results since December 2006 and you can see the returns from each of their six systems summarised below:

National Hunt Portfolio BreakDown By System Since Dec 2006

				SP		SP Plus
System	Bets	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit	POT	Profit	POT
A	221	104	47.1%	31	14.1%	42	19.2%
B	56	23	41.1%	-2	-3.7%	1	1.6%
C	176	73	41.5%	7	4.2%	16	9.1%
D	253	87	34.4%	13	5.1%	27	10.8%
E	127	27	21.3%	59	46.8%	79	62.6%
F	101	45	44.6%	22	21.3%	28	28.0%
Total	934	359	38.4%	130	14.0%	194	20.8%

eg £13,000 net profit to £100 level stakes at StartingPrice.

Bet at SP Plus from CentreBet instead of starting price and that Profit would have jumped to £19,400

Pretty impressive results I am sure you would agree.

You can find out more about the Punter Profits NH Portfolio here: www.PunterProfits.com

Regards

Greg Gordon

Personal Info Update 27^th Jan 2009

Back in July 2008 we introduced you all to Kevin Mather’s premium racing service Personal Info, a service we’ve been greatly taken by since initiating proofing of them in August 2007.

Six months on, we feel it is time for an update and the good news is that Personal Info have maintained the solid, consistent form they showed over their first year with us.

You can see the current scores on the doors summarised below:

Total points staked = 2,331 pts

Advised Price Return = 2,690pts

Sp Return = 2,433pts

Advised Profit = 359pts

SP profit = 102pts

% ROI advised = 15.4%

% ROI SP = 4.3%

No tips = 345

level Stake Profit = 73.29 pts

% ROI Level Stakes = 21%

Average points per stake = 6.75 pts

Average stake profit = 494.7pts

NB We find the Average Stake stats particularly useful as they give a good indication of level stakes profitability when betting at a stake level equivalent to a service’s average stake per bet. As such, they are a great guide in terms of finding your own personal staking levels with a service.

In our initial report covering 1st August 2007 – 21st July 2008 Personal Info recorded profits as follows:

Service

Adv Pt

Return

Return

Profit

Profit

% Ret on Invest

No

Lev Stake 1pt

Average

Av Stake

Outlay

Adv Price

SP Price

Adv Price

SP Price

Adv Price

SP Price

Tips

Profit

% Ret

Pts/Tip

Profit

Personal Info

1634

1909

1726

274

92.0

16.8%

5.6%

237

57.8

24.4%

6.9

398

In the interim, July 21^st 2008 – January 24^th 2009 they have staked an additional 697pts over 108 selections, returning an additional profit to advised stakes of 85pts.

The percentage return on investment figure of 15.4% to advised prices is pretty much consistent with the 16.8% equivalent figure recorded in July, which again is very reassuring. As our initial admiration for Personal Info grew from their consistency of returns and low volatility in terms of losing runs, the latest figures confirm our original conclusion, namely: Personal Info isn’t cheap, but it does appear to offer a solid prospect of long-term profits – especially for clients prepared to invest with a decent-sized betting bank.

Over all Personal Info have much to recommend them. A low level of volatility and a regular flow of winners will be good for most punters’ pockets and ongoing confidence.

The profits also look attainable – especially for those taking a ‘middle-ground’ level average stakes approach.

The workload involved is pleasingly low and should fit comfortably into most busy people’s work routines. It is very rare to have to place any more than a couple of bets on any given day and for the most part, the prices appear to be largely attainable – although, as these selections have the wind of strong stable confidence behind them, prices do contract and the returns at SP, as you would expect, are significantly lower.

Since our initial report, Personal Info have carried on in a pleasingly similar vein to much of the last 18 months. The highpoint of their recent returns was the period of 19^th November 2008 – 13^th December 2008. During this 24 day sequence, Personal Info recommended 17 selections at prices between 0.33 and 7.0. They racked up 13 winners (including eight consecutive winners) and one placed selection – losing on only three occasions and adding 58 points profit to their account.

That is exceptional tipping by any standard.

Naturally enough, no one could be expected to maintain these levels of return over the longer period and January has been a rare poor month for the service resulting in a loss of 12 points. However, Personal Info ended the proofing period with a winner – a 12pt win bet on Diamond Harry – and there is no reason to believe that the current downturn is anything other than a blip, a typical seasonal correction.

Like all racing services out there, Kevin Mather has found January a frustrating month from a punting perspective with numerous meetings cancelled due to wintry weather.

Indeed the tipster estimates that he missed out on ‘more than a dozen’ selections that he would otherwise have advised had their meetings not been abandoned. That seems completely consistent with the testimony of the other racing services we monitor at ProGambler and it is a comment I’d be happy to take on trust.

Since Diamond Harry won on Saturday to end the period contained in the latest stats, Personal Info have had two subsequent bets – both winners. Gone Hunting was a 7pt winner advised at 10/11, Den of Iniquity was a 2pt winner advised at 5/2. The results mean that Personal Info are on a run of seven winners from their last 10 selections advised and they are now on target to turn January into a break even/winning month after an unpromising start. Kevin Mather says it is the perfect example of Personal Info’s ‘Bouncebackability’. It certainly suggests that Personal Info will go into February in good form.

In summary then, I’d be happy to recommend Personal Info to patient, realistic clients looking for a steady and consistent profit from their membership with a minimal workload and attainable prices.

Exclusive ProGambler Membership Offer And Service Details:

Personal Info have agreed to offer a 15% discount to ProGambler subscribers on the fees listed below.

If paying online enter progambler in the promotional reference field when prompted. You should note the discount applied to the calcs in the order form.

Alternatively if you wish to pay by card over the phone, again simply tell them you wish to claim the progambler 15% discount.

Name of Service: Personal Info

Contact: Kevin Mather

Telephone: (01942) 707171 mobile: 0791 379 2678

Website address: www.personal-info.co.uk

The Service In Brief:

PERSONAL INFO is a high class horseracing advisory Service run by a professional tipster.

What sports does the service cover: UK horseracing

NEW PRICE LISTINGS:

THE MAINLINE MEMBERSHIP Price List:

3 Months £459 (£153 per Month pro rata)

6 Months £768 (£128 per Month pro rata)

12 Months £1,248 (£104 per Month pro rata)

THE MAX BETS ONLY Price List:

The next 25 MAX BETS for £359

The next 50 MAX BET for £559

ALL MAX BETS for 12 Months for £659

Current ProGambler deal: Personal Info are offering a 15% reduction in fees for new members

(Quote the CODE: progambler in the ref box on the online application form or when calling by phone to take advantage of the discount).

Bet Frequency:

The MAINLINE will advise around 25-30 bets per month.

The MAX BETS are very occasional, sometimes they go 2 or 3 weeks without a selection.

How are messages delivered: Messages are delivered via an 0870 national call rate number or via a secure members area on the Personal Info site (or you can have both options). MAX BETS members receive text or email alerts because there can be two or three weeks between bets. However, because there are MAINLINE bets advised most days there is no real need for alerts on the MAINLINE service. Instead, clients are informed to either call or login each day from approx 1.15 pm in the summer months. This time will change during the winter.

What is the betting philosophy behind the service:

Basically there are two kinds of racing advisory services available, firstly, those that pass on insider information only and secondly, those that concentrate on their own stats and form study exclusively.

The PERSONAL INFO services, exist somewhere in between these models. According to Kevin Mather, the insider information that he receives from retained stable contacts, is initially used to sift through the days’ cards and compile a shortlist of races to focus on. The insider information allied to his own form and stats work gives him the added edge that his team need to make rewards long term. Working solely on short-listed races where they have the benefit of both a firm view and useful inside info they then bring their experience to bear to take a view on the value (or not) attached to their preferred selection before advising a bet to members.

Obviously, from time to time the Personal Info team receive positives about horses running against their selection and again, any decision on whether to bet (or not) will be considered in light of all the information at their disposal. In some cases they would then need to decide to either give that race a swerve or very occasionally they advise Dutching (backing multiple selections) in the race concerned to make best use of the info at their disposal.

Period Monitored: ProGambler have monitored Personal Info’s service results from 1st August 2007 – 26th January 2009.

They Say:

This is a link to the latest report on Personal Info’s own website: http://www.personal-info.co.uk

If you intend to join don’t forget to save a few £ by quoting the discount code progambler.

Boasting a profit on investment figure of 31 per cent, Observer Tipster Survey Profits of £5,128.75 and a strike rate of 17%. The Mathematician aka Guy Ward had every reason to be pleased with his performance under the glare of public scrutiny back in 2005/06.

Nothing stands still in the world of betting however and, two years after my initial research began, Ward is anticipating his best year ever telling members earlier this week: “I think I have taken it to a different level this season and results are showing this. That’s why we are going to have a very interesting season. Watch this year because I plan for a Masterclass and a record profit”.

So is it an idle boast? Recent results suggest not.

Since year two monitoring began again, on July 4th 2006, that profit on investment figure has been boosted to 47.78%. Returns are up too – to advised prices 50.5pts, 44.79pts at SP. The strike rate has been boosted to 36.7% with 40 win and placed selections from 109 account bets. Ward’s 26 winners were recommended at prices ranging between 11/10 and 14/1. His longest winning run has been three winners (twice). His longest losing sequence has been nine selections.

When looked at over the course of the last eleven months as a whole, the results are more remarkable given that they coincided with a National Hunt season that proved to be a real winter of discontent for virtually every major tipster in the country. With variable weather conditions throughout the back end of the year inhibiting the emergence of reliable form or trends many services saw all their summer profits simply frittered away, others incurred a deficit, others still have seen their slump drag on into the summer.

As such, some Progambler members, who took advantage of a previous subscription offer, may have been distinctly underwhelmed with The Mathematician’s performance during the jumps campaign. However, in retrospect, his decision to rein in his ambitions and recommend relatively few bets in this sticky period looks like a masterstroke – even if it proved frustrating for members who had paid for tips. The Mathematician recommended a mere 15 account bets between January 3rd and May 5th this year. Since then however, the frequency has returned to ‘normal’ levels with another 14 account bets slated between May 11th and June 12th this year.

Of course, many of you will already know The Mathematician’s work from the free content on this site. Since the inception of Progambler’s free Saturday Column in November last year, The Mathematician has been providing analysis and selections every Saturday. He began with a bang tipping up State of Play at 8/1 to win The Hennessy. Last Saturday’s column (9th June 2007) tipped up three out of three winners – Eager Igor 4/1,  Eradicate 11/4 and Drifting Gold 6/4. Those column contributions, archived here on the site, are a representative selection of the kind of exhaustive info, angles and analysis that is made available to The Mathematician’s members each lunchtime via email.

As I’ve said before, each message typically combines the day’s featured bets (account bets) alongside analysis of usually around ten supporting races on the day’s cards with accompanying break-downs that highlight potential betting strategies for each race, shortlists of positive and negative runners based on stats and historical trends, horses to lay on the exchanges and runners that can be backed in combination in the same race with the aim of securing a profit.

In common with the best racing advisor services (as opposed to simple tipping operations) the accent at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk is very much a commitment to empowering members to make better, more informed, betting choices, alongside showcasing the headline account tips that are the subject of Progambler’s ongoing monitoring. For example, The Mathematician’s excellent member’s web forum, unlike the majority of betting sites, is a pretty egalitarian place where new members are welcomed with open arms and no question is too trivial for either Guy or his extended community of seasoned and novice bettors alike. As a result, Guy Ward’s service particularly attracts both women and older bettors – two constituencies who are not well served elsewhere by bookmakers, websites or the betting industry as a whole.

As The Saturday Columns probably illustrate, The Mathematician service is not suitable for everyone. Those looking for a simple horse name, time and race will be frustrated by Guy Ward’s singular writing style and dense messages that can stretch to thousands of words. However, after even a few months of membership most members, just like myself, find a way to use the messages that chimes with their personal betting philosophy. With demands on my time, I simply cut to the chase and concentrate on backing Guy’s account selections. Other members lay his negatives on the exchanges, while others still, look to combine horses in multiple bets or back through a televised card using his advice.

As a service based on constantly evolving stats and form research, Guy Ward’s service inevitably has the feel of an ongoing work in progress. Nevertheless, The Mathematician’s confident prediction quoted at the head of this report is indicative of both the growing refinement and increased confidence in his methodologies and daily messages that I have witnessed over the last two years.

I’d heartily recommend that you sign up for a membership and test with your own eyes. There is a no quibble refund guarantee with his service if it does not suit your personal style.

Visit his site for more info www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Equine Investments Progambler report 26th April 2007

Now posted: the first report from year two.
We’ve been promising you regular updates on The Observer/Progambler Year Two tipster stable for quite some time now but with the additional commitments and admin that come with monitoring a greater number of services it has taken  a bit longer than expected to pull together.

We’ve also taken the decision to deal with each service on its merits, as opposed to lumping everything together is we did in The Observer reports. It’s a simple function of having more space on the site.

Anyway here is our first report, on Equine Investments, it may not be a service many of you will have heard of but it is definitely a service that enjoys a good reputation in the right circles. We’ve also included a strictly limited membership deal for anyone on the Progambler mailing list (or their friends) and it is our intention to offer regular deals and promotions on services we are monitoring and books and products we have road-tested and like.

As always your feedback is greatly appreciated.

Best wishes,

Greg
Equine Investments Progambler report 26th April 2007

Having been monitoring Equine Investments for the last ten months I am really looking forward to them re-starting their service again after their break between the all weather season and the flat proper reaching full cry in May.

Equine Investments is a flat racing only service covering both the turf and all weather seasons. It is the brainchild of Laurence Lambourn, a professional gambler based in the North West and his business associate and fellow pro gambler, Tim.

It is also one of the only services I know of that offers a profit guarantee – in this case, a guarantee of 20pts profit for the flat season and 30pts profit annually. Membership is extended free of charge until the profit target is met to level stakes.

During the period I have monitored – July 14th 2006 up to 21st March 2007 (the service starts again on 1st May to coincide with the turf form settling down), Equine Investments recommended 186 bets. They have had 39 winners (a strike rate of   21%). Winners were recommended at odds of between 8/5 and 14/1 (x2). Most of the bets fell within the 9/2 to 12/1 range.

Their longest winning run was 3 selections (x3), their longest losing run was 17 consecutive losers (with 14 losers x 2 in two other losing runs). There are very few favourites selected and no odds on recommendations during this period. They recorded profits of £5,180.46 to £20 per point at recommended stakes using a staking system of 2-10 points. The maximum bet placed in this period was 5 pts win (regularly).

Their Profit on investment of 43.28%. According to their website they have achieved annual return on investment figures between 28.69% and 50.32% in each of their five years in business. On the basis of my experience to date, I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of these figures or the integrity of this service.

Laurence started punting full time in 1999 after he accepted a voluntary redundancy that allowed him to put his betting on a professional footing. A former Senior computer operator with Lloyds TSB, unsurprisingly his approach combines database-derived racing research with video form analysis, race reading, traditional form work and an interest in pace and draw bias advantages for runners. Like Steve Lewis Hamilton for example, Laurence’s selection process begins and ends with his own set of prices which he compares against available bookmaker odds to inform his bet and stake selection. Most weeks he recommends between 5-10 bets with no bet days relatively common.
Laurence says: “The main thing you are paying for is my ability to accurately assess horses’ chances with my own prices, quality research – using data and techniques that market forces rarely take into account – and the simple hard slog of endless form work, video analysis and in some cases 16 hour days spent studying the following day’s cards.”

The bets are delivered generally in two daily emails sent early and around midday (clients can also access the bets on a national rate call line or by free text messages if preferred). Laurence concentrates 90% of his betting on handicaps that are priced up early by all the major bookmakers and the instructions are concise and easy to follow featuring a selection, time, meeting, a stake and the recommended best price odds. The second email provides any additional bets (if any) and the rationale behind the day’s selections.

I particularly value the ease of use and the transparency of this service. Laurence was recommended to Progambler as a genuine and professional operator and I am happy to say this has been my impression of this dynamic and so far, profitable service,

As a service very much focussed on its clients, Equine Investment keeps a smaller membership than many services. Laurence’s primary concern is that for services with hundreds of members it is well nigh impossible to get bets placed at the recommended prices.

Certainly, more than any other service I am monitoring Equine Investment’s selections appear to regularly become the subject of major gambles as the day progresses.

As a slight negative, anyone considering this service would probably need to ensure that they can firstly, take advantage of early prices (within 30 minutes of the bets being released) and also, that they have access to accounts with a portfolio of different bookmakers as those best prices invariably do not hang around for long. It should certainly make all the difference profit-wise with some selections sometimes halving in price over the course of a few hours. The upside of this of course, is that you do have confidence that the horses you back on their recommendation are fit and fancied.

Website: http://www.equineinvestments.co.uk
Current Fees :

Unfortunately membership for Equine Investments is officially closed.