Gorans Winners Interview

Goran Live Betting Interview ProGambler March 2014

As anyone that knows me already knows I am a great advocate of Gorans Winners and also its creator Goran Trpevski.

So much so that I happily follow Goran’s bets with my own money and never need any encouragement at all to work with him.

In the past we have collaborated on a number of projects including a World Cup publication and also a few football things too.

In his own country, Sweden, Goran also enjoys an excellent reputation as a former footballer based on a career at Malmo and for Sweden’s underage teams. At Malmo, Goran was considered to be a formative influence on the young Zlatan Ibrahimovic and the two men remain friends to this day, sharing a great deal of mutual respect.


Although, this interview below focuses solely on Goran’s in play betting it is worth underlining that he also provides profitable pre-match picks that set nicely besides his trademark live selections in big televised matches.


1.       What do you think are the biggest advantages of betting in play as opposed to betting pre-match?

To do well betting, you have to be better than the bookmakers and really the bookmakers are very good at getting their pre match prices right. They of course are not right all the time or they don’t react quickly enough to some events which is why I also make good profits on my pre match bets.


However, in play betting is a different beast. Bookmakers will never be able to fully price up everything happening in a live game. They can’t account for how likely a high back line is to influence goals, or the influence of a key player either playing or absent. These are subtle things that the stats can never tell you. You can only get this from experience playing and watching the game at a professional level.

2.       Do you need different skills as someone that bets in play rather than someone that bets prematch?
Yes. It’s almost an entirely different sport. Of course the same basics are there, but for me, in play betting is where stats go out of the window and instinct comes in.

Timing is also crucial – it makes all the difference between getting a good price and getting a great price.

Prematch is about intelligent guessing – guessing What the line up will be, what players will play in which positions, what kind of tempo the game will have etc.
In live betting you don’t need to guess as you can see all this stuff with your own eyes and can react thereafter.


3.       What percentage of your personal betting these days is done in play and what markets do you concentrate on?

About 80% of my personal betting is live. I mainly focus on the Over markets, Asian handicaps and some corner betting.


4.       How did the idea of the Goran Live Betting service come about and what are your stats as a service?

I’ve been operating since 2009 with my pre match picks, but it’s only since 2011 the technology enabled my live picks to go out fully.


In total, my live picks have made 129 points from 1106 points staked, that’s nearly a 12% profit on turnover. That’s around £12,900 profit to £100 per point.


As I mostly use Asian lines, the strike rate is high I win 54% of my picks, but because of Asian Handicap draw refunds I lose just under a third of the time.

Combined with my pre match picks, I have made 337 points which is just over a 10.5% profit on turnover or £33,700 profit to £100 stakes.


5.       Why are you really the only tipster out there that is offering an in play service?

I don’t know. I don’t keep too much of an eye on what others do as it doesn’t interest me.

Maybe live betting is too difficult, maybe others aren’t prepared to put the research hours in that I am to not just watch the live games I bet on, but replays of other games that might also have an impact on my live bets.


Technology is also a factor, it’s easy to send an email, but to get live picks properly set up – that’s not easy. Our members get tips via a login area – that’s the quickest alerts, but each tip is also sent via email and SMS for back up.



6.       Explain a little bit, for the benefit of people who might want to join, what a typical betting day with Goran Live Betting could be like?


Saturday starts with The Bundesliga as they kick off early in Germany. I will comment on the games I am watching and give my opinions. When I build up to a pick, I let subscribers know.

Here’s a transcript from Sunday 2nd of February. Members get the bets via SMS and email as well live alerts via the live betting area of the site.


17:28:58               Gold: Live Bet Coming Up

17:29:22               Gold: bayern -2 1 unit 1.68

18:00:33               Gold: Live Bet Coming Up

18:01:31               Gold: bayern -1.5 1 unit 1.74 Pinnacle

18:03:49               with this tempo this game is ending 4-0

18:47:12               score should be 6-0

18:48:05               nope I am lying

18:48:16               should be 10-0

In the End Bayern won 5-0,but they could easy have scored another five.
Another bet I might take is a pre-match pick while a game is in play. For example while Arsenal were getting thumped by Liverpool, I thought this did not bode well for their match against United on February12th.


So during their Liverpool match I issued this pick:


Feb 12th Arsenal v Man Utd. Man United +0.5 Asian Handicap 2 units 1.80 Bet 365.


For those that are not aware, the +0.5 Asian Handicap means you’re backing United and the draw so this bet was a nice winner with United drawing 0-0 against Arsenal.



7.       What are the common mistakes that inexperienced live bettors make when betting in play?



Probably trying to trade out too soon or when they don’t need to. My live bets are positions I hold until full time. It’s hard enough picking a winning live bet, let alone choosing the exit point. Too often people trade and exit just because they are in profit – not because it’s a good time to exit.


8.       How can a member of your service improve their betting and understanding of football when they join Goran Live Betting?

I try as much as I can to let people see the game from my eyes. Football betting is my life and it pays damn good, trust me. Only to call me a pro-punter and only a pro-punter would be a mistake as that’s not what I am about. I teach my members about this game and try to have them seeing it from my eyes. For some that is much more important than just giving them winning picks as they can take my lessons and add them into their own betting on other games. If you want to improve your understanding of the game and your own personal profits I will certainly be able to help you achieve both objectives.


9.   We have a Champions League tournament reaching its final stages and a World Cup coming up in Brazil this summer. What do you think we can look forward to as punters in both tournaments and are there any angles we can look to exploit?

There are many angles to look for, as always. Let’s just take the Falcao case lately as an example. One injury and you have lines changing in markets four months from now.

What people don’t understand now is that when we are talking about the Champions League and the World Cup we must not forget that we are looking at tournaments rather than league play. This is a key factor. There is no doubt thatt quality and skill will count for less and luck will play a bigger factor in a tournament situation than in a league where more or less the best team always wins.
In cup competitions luck takes centre stage many times and quality can’t help you if you are simply unlucky when it matters.
Holland played in the World Cup Final in 2010 but they did not touch the ball against Brazil in the quarter final.
Spain could have been knocked out in the group phase in South Africa and that seems incredible now. That Spain side winning or not winning the WC 2010 was decided by the slimmest of margins and that is despite that Spain side being the best national team ever to play this game.
So, don’t confuse league football where you have 38 games to be the best with cup football where two bad minutes means you are packing your bags and heading home – even if you are the best team in the tournament.






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