Greg’s Bundesliga Research Week Ten

Bundesliga Research 24th February 2011

I am most keen on….

Shortlist

Borussia M’gla to bt Wolfsburg 15/4 Bet 365, VC, Stan James 0.5pt

Bayern München  v  Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals 2.79 (22/13) 32Red 0.5pt

Bayer Leverkusen to bt Werder Bremen 13/10 general 1pt
Most Recent Results, Highlights and Analysis

Fri 18/02/11

Nürnberg 3 – 0 Eintracht Fran…
http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-Nürnberg-vs-Eintracht-Frankfurt-73557

A tight game looked to be petering out at 1-0 until tired challenges and sloppiness from a beaten Frankfurt side, added two late goals and a scoreline with a whole lot of gloss on it. Frankfurt didn’t deserve anything much from the game but their effort alone was worthy of a more respectable scoreline.
Sat 19/02/11

Borussia Dortmund 2 – 0 St. Pauli
http://www.footytube.com/video/Borussia-Dortmund-vs-FC-Sankt-Pauli-73624

Dortmund are back in form.

Media: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/feb/21/wolfsburg-steve-mcclaren-bundesliga

“Two draws in a row had suggested the faintest possibility of some last-minute bottling but Dortmund were back in the groove against St Pauli. Goals from Lucas Barrios and an own-goal from Ralph Gunesch put paid to doubts over Borussia’s finishing prowess. Asked about the high number of missed chances in the first 30 minutes, Jürgen Klopp smiled benignly. “Don’t worry, this highly emotional subject will be dealt with internally,” he said.”
Hannover 96 3 – 0 Kaiserslautern
http://www.footytube.com/video/Hannover-96-vs-1.-Kaiserslautern-73602

A typical Hannover home win with a setpiece goal and two opportunist breaks after forced Kaiserslautern errors in possession. Hannover make a little possession go such a long way – even where they are largely outplayed. As a result they are a hard side to weigh up and a tricky proposition to back. There ‘economical’ style of play will always make them appear lucky winners and as the cede possession willingly at times opponents will always have a chance against them.

Hoffenheim 1 – 1 Köln
http://www.footytube.com/video/Hoffenheim-vs-1.-Köln-73603

This ended neither one thing nor another for us. Koln were a little outplayed but Novakovic could have stolen our win at a big price. How we didn’t get the overs here I’ll never know as Hannover rattled the woodwork twice amidst a very open second half.

Freiburg 2 – 1 Wolfsburg
http://www.footytube.com/video/SC-Freiburg-vs-VfL-Wolfsburg-73646

The agony goes on for Wolfsburg. The ref missed a handball in the build-up to Freiburg’s equaliser. Cisse rubbed it in with a winner on the break, in typical Bundesliga fashion. Keeper Baumann performed heroics to keep Wolfsburg out.

Hamburger SV 4 – 0 Werder Bremen
http://www.footytube.com/video/Hamburger-SV-vs-Werder-Bremen-73625

Werder Bremen’s slide continues….this was a horror-show performance with each goal resulting from one or more individual errors. Hamburg looked good precisely because Werder Bremen made them look good.

Mainz 05 1 – 3 Bayern München
http://www.footytube.com/video/1.-FSV-Mainz-05-vs-Bayern-München-73697

Both sides contributed to a good, honest and open game where Bayern’s class ultimately told. Bayern look compelling offensively but still vulnerable at the back. As a result this was a straightforward overs shout for us.

Sun 20/02/11

Bayer Leverkusen 4 – 2 Stuttgart
http://www.footytube.com/video/Bayer-Leverkusen-vs-VfB-Stuttgart-73790

Plucky Stuttgart were ultimately overpowered by a strong home side. As in the Mainz v Bayern game, class and quality told in the end.
Borussia M’gla… 2 – 1 Schalke 04
http://www.footytube.com/video/Borussia-M’gladbach-vs-Schalke-04-73771

The latest in a procession of poor results for Schalke. BM demonstrated once again that they are well capable of scoring. If only the other departments in their side were as consistent then they would be safely in mid-table, rather than bottom, in a relegation dogfight.

Results: Nürnberg 3-0 Frankfurt, Hamburg 4-0 Bremen, Hannover 3-0 Kaiserslautern, Freiburg 2-1 Wolfsburg, Hoffenheim 1-1 Köln, Dortmund 2-0 St Pauli, Leverkusen 4-2 Stuttgart, Gladbach 2-1 Schalke

Fixtures This Weekend

Fri 25/02/11

Wolfsburg  19 : 30  Borussia M’gla…

If anything Wolfsburg are playing even worse under Pierre Littbarski than they did under The Wally With the Brolly, Steve McClaren. In individual games you can point to bad luck or decisions going against a side but in general Wolfsburg’s position (15th in the table) and form (they come into the game on the back of four defeats) screams out that they are no odds on shot here. BM have scored at least once in their last six games. An away win at Mainz is a fair achievement as is a home win last time out v Schalke. The improving bottom side are worthy of a small interest in a game that may throw up opportunities in running to back both goals and the away side at a nice price. If the home side start well and take a lead there could also be the opportunity to safeguard your stake in running. In that scenario, I’d expect confidence in the home team to collapse.

Borussia M’gla to bt Wolfsburg 15/4 Bet 365, VC, Stan James 0.5pt
Sat 26/02/11

Kaiserslautern  14 : 30  Hamburger SV

In a week where most of the away sides boast a decent chance at the prices, Hamburg hold obvious appeal. It is a grim picture for Kaiserslautern bar that lucky draw versus Dortmund but while I reckon Hamburg can win this their results show that they barely put in two good back to back performances. I also feel that the 4-0 win over Bremen was so gift-wrapped as to be almost inadmissible as evidence of current form. Sure, wins bring confidence but complacent Hamburg could be due a slip-up. No Bet.

Hoffenheim  14 : 30  Mainz 05

If forced Mainz would be the obvious value call here. However, I just wonder if we could see a negative reaction on the back of a defeat to Bayern Munich (4-2). This game is a comedown after the giddy heights of a home game versus the Bavarians. No Bet.

Köln  14 : 30  Freiburg

This looks like a tough game to call between well-matched teams in terms of current form. No Bet.

St. Pauli  14 : 30  Hannover 96
Again, marginal preference is for the hustlers from Hannover but given the fact that the home side should, almost inevitably, see a lot of the ball then I’d probably want a bigger price. No Bet.

Schalke 04  14 : 30  Nürnberg

On the back of four straight wins, Nurnberg deserve to take their chance against a Schalke side that are still waiting for their season to start. However, I Schalke overcome Nurnberg in a January cup tie and although the game needed an extra time winner from Draxler, Schalke were ultimately worthy winners. A stroll down memory lane could be just what the doctor orders for Felix Magath’s ailing stars. I am tempted by the away win but like everyone else, I keep expecting Schalke to step up to the mark. The loss of Schieber for Nurnberg through injury is a blow to Nurnberg’s chances. Schieber, on loan from Stuttgart, has scored seven goals and set up another eight in Nuremberg’s fine run which has lifted them to eighth place after 23 games.
No Bet.

Bayern München  17 : 30  Borussia Dortmund

The rule of thumb when top teams clash is that things will stay tight but can a leopard, such as Bayern Munich, really change its spots? Bayern’s games are simply peppered with goals. Their last five have all gone over 3.5 goals with a cumulative total of 24 goals in those games. The reason is that Bayern are as bad at the back as they are compelling going forward with Robben, Ribery, Muller and Gomez to the fore. Dortmund too are an interesting case. Their counter attacking style is far from defensive but it is far better suited to road games. They have failed to score in just two of their last 15 road games and with Bayern forced to have a go (unlike other opponents looking for a ‘moral victory’ point) the likelihood of goals is also increased in this one off occasion. The interesting thing here is that over 2.5 goals is a prohibitively short 4/7 or so. However, we know from watching German games that – unlike in other countries – the gulf between three and four (or more) goals in a game is relatively small. Not least because this is a league of open games pitching quick attackers, and quick thinking attackers, against pedestrian defences. I think the context of this game favours an interest in a goal-fest at a fairly generous 2.79 (22/13).

Bayern München  v  Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals 2.79 (22/13) 32Red 0.5pt
Sun 27/02/11

Eintracht Fran…  14 : 30  Stuttgart

If they have anything about themselves at all Stuttgart should by pencilling in Sunday as the day they finally get their house in order and kick-start their season. However, as limited as Gekas-reliant Eintracht Frankfurt are, they were better than the 3-0 loss to Nurnberg suggests. Nurnberg were the better side but their opener came from a keeper howler and goals two and three within the last five minutes once Frankfurt had thrown in the towel. On paper this looks like a potential away win. In practice it could well turn out to be a classic contest of two bald men fighting over a comb. I reckon it is best left at the prices. No Bet.

Werder Bremen  16 : 30  Bayer Leverkusen   More info

Werder Bremen can’t defend and now the goals have dried up too. Leverkusen have recovered their composure and on the back of four straight wins they are probably a decent bet at 13/10 (43%) against a side with just six wins in 23 Bundesliga games this season.

Bayer Leverkusen to bt Werder Bremen 13/10 general 1pt
Shortlist

Borussia M’gla to bt Wolfsburg 15/4 Bet 365, VC, Stan James 0.5pt

Bayern München  v  Borussia Dortmund over 3.5 goals 2.79 (22/13) 32Red 0.5pt

Bayer Leverkusen to bt Werder Bremen 13/10 general 1pt

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