Welcome to the Saturday Column.
Lots of new readers who have come to Progambler via my new football site www.scottishfootballbets.co.uk

If you haven’t checked it out yet please give it a look.

A note on the column:

The idea with The Progambler Saturday Column is to showcase the work of some of the services we are monitoring. In terms of the advice below it is presented to allow members to pick and mix what they want to read or follow-up – a bit like a newspaper sports section or indeed a condensed Racing Post. Obviously, there is loads of stuff in here but we have decided on this format on the basis of the providing ‘something for everyone’ approach. If you are new to Progambler spend a couple of weeks familiarising yourself with the content and working out where your interests lie. Otherwise it is an awful lot to read on a Saturday morning!

Also, I have added a mail out on Saturday that lets members know when the column has been posted up and provides a link to save you constantly re-checking the site for updates. If you would like to be added to the list that receive an email alert please drop an email to This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it requesting to be added to the mailing list.

I hope you enjoy the column and good luck however you are betting today.
Best wishes,
Greg
Greg Gordon
www.ProGambler.co.uk

Greg’s Scottish Football wwwscottishfootballbets.com

Stirling to bt Arbroath Scottish Second 20/23 Boyles (5/6 Ladbrokes, Stan James) 2pts

*NB You can still back this at a best price 10/11 on Ladbrokes, Hills and Coral shop coupons.

We were close to backing Arbroath at Clyde last Saturday, and thanks to Gregor's veto, we dodged a nasty bullet.

 Late on Friday it emerged that Arbroath were in the grip of an injury crisis with 41-year old manager Jim Weir forced to name himself amongst the substitutes after a week spent trawling other clubs for emergency loan reinforcements. If anything, that crisis has intensified this week with Weir confiding to one manager he called that he has as few as eight players fit for tomorrow.

Even officially, Arbroath manager Jim Weir could be without nine of his first team regulars for tomorrow's home clash against Stirling Albion as an injury crisis has descended on Gayfield.

After Saturday's 1-0 defeat away to bottom of the table Clyde, which Michael watched, Jamie Redman, Kevin McMullen, Robbie Ross and Bryan Scott have all added their names to a growing injury list.

They join Jamie Bishop, Marc McCulloch, Ian Dobbins, Dermot McCaffrey and Steve Hislop, who were all forced to sit out the fixture and look as though they will be missing for the next couple of weeks.

The 41-year-old manager, who named himself as a substitute on Saturday (and will do so again today, only had 10 players available at training on Monday night and even then centre half, Alan Rattray went over his ankle and the boss is still waiting to hear if he has any lasting damage. I estimate that six or seven of those listed would be considered automatic starters while Michael also believes that key forward Bryan Scott was replaced with a knock at Clyde that he is unlikely to recover from.

 Add all this to the fact that Arbroath have won just one home game on their fine pitch by the sea and league contenders Stirling (second on goal difference) simply have to be backed to pile on the agony. The unlucky Lichties have been dogged with both constant injuries and swine flu this season.

Stirling Albion though will return fresh to league action on Saturday when they take on Arbroath at Gayfield.

Allan Moore’s men were idle at the weekend because scheduled opponents Dumbarton were involved in a Scottish Cup replay against Morton – losing 1-0 – and Stirling haven’t played since beating Auchinleck Talbot 2-1 in the cup a fortnight ago on Saturday.

Their last league game was a 2-2 home draw against Cowdenbeath on November 21 – a result that leaves Stirling behind the Blue Brazil on goal difference at the top.

Moore was at Broadwood on Saturday to watch Clyde beat Arbroath 1-0, an outcome which sees the Red Lichties just a point above the Bully Wee at the wrong end of the table.

Albion posted a pair of 2-1 victories at Gayfield in Division Two last season but were forced to twice come from behind to draw 2-2 with a near full strength Arbroath at Forthbank in October.

Moore said: “It wasn’t a great game between Clyde and Arbroath and I would expect us to be going up there and winning but it won’t be easy – no game is in this league. I want us to win every game but clearly that is not going to happen. Arbroath had a few injuries so it may be that they have a different team out when we play them.

I am also inclined to agree with the little Stirling boss when he says that losing their main striker may not be such an inconvenience after all. “Martin Grehan is suspended but we have three good strikers in David McKenna, Bryan Prunty and Michael Mullen so it is not a big concern. We don’t have too many injury worries as long as all the boys got home safely from their Christmas night out in Newcastle!

“Sean Roycroft will come back into contention after missing the Auchinleck game but Stewart Devine is still waiting to see a specialist about his groin problem.”

It’s a big week for the Binos, who host Dumbarton in a rearranged game next Tuesday and welcome Stenhousemuir to Forthbank on December 19, and Moore is demanding that his team do their utmost to make it a happy Christmas by claiming full points.

He added: “You asked if I would accept seven points out of nine but that’s not great if Cowdenbeath – who take on Peterhead, Stenhousemuir and Arbroath in the same period – take nine points. They are games we are capable of winning and we need to try and do that.”

Moore’s men have only failed to score against Alloa (twice) and Stenhousemuir in 15 Division Two outings to date and have won five of seven away matches – most recently 2-1 at East Fife thanks to a last-gasp Grehan goal.

However, on the debit side they have gone behind in their last nine league games and haven’t managed a shut-out for three months.

Still, given the circumstances on Saturday it seems possible to infer that if Stirling score they will be the most likely winner. I also like the on loan signing of Ayr's Bryan Prunty - a player we have profited from regularly as he finished last season as the top scorer in Division Two. He is obviously therefore, more than a proven replacement for Grehan.

With so many potentially out for Arbroath or lacking the fitness to fully contribute in the game, this is a hard one to price up.

Complacency can always be a factor in these so-called team news gambles - that increasingly I try to run shy of. I want to make an exception here however.

I'd say that if the teams I expect line up on Saturday then Stirling should be as short as 8/15 (65% likely winners). A best price of 10/11 says their chance is just 48%. That is a massive difference of opininon and, once the news spreads as it inevitably will, I don't expect that price to last. As a result, I'll gamble slightly on the unconfirmed line ups and go up early to secure the price.

Equine Investments on Racing

www.equineinvestments.co.uk

Anyone who knows our reports will already have read that we rate Laurence Lambourn’s Equine Investments as the best horse racing service there is and the best of the last five years. The membership is currently closed but while I chip away at Laurence trying to persuade him that he should provide a cheaper weekend only service for new clients, he has agreed to offer us the occasional column selection. Here is the second offering:

9.20 wolverhampton – onceuponatime 3/1 still available.

Although my clients have taken all of the 4/1 I think our horse is a 5/2 shot. He is very consistent and hardly runs a bad race on ran a great race last time considering he was drawn in the car park, he did very well to finish 3rd. Much better drawn today and a likely decent pace to track the race should be set up for him.

Personal Info Special Offer

Today’s FREE MAXIMUM BET selection:
1.50 Cheltenham No3 TELL MASSINI Even Money Best Price guaranteed advised. 

Pre Race Comment: 

TELL MASSINI He made most and stuck on really well to beat some good horses in a Grade 2 hurdle here last month and he looks to be on an upward curve and looks like a GOODTHING today to win and make it 3 wins from 3 over hurdles! So much so, that we are going to make TELL MASSINI only our 4th MAXIMUM WIN BET selection within the last 10 weeks or so.

We have had 5 MAXIMUM BET WINNERS from the last 6 advised MAXIMUM BETS and we are very confident of making it 6 from 7 today. We advise a 12pts MAXIMUM WIN BET today on TELL MASSINI. We also strongly advise that you take up the EVEN MONEY GUARANTEED PRICE that is available with bookmakers: Coral and Paddy Power. The Even Money is also available now with several other bookmakers, but EVEN MONEY GUARANTEED PRICE is strongly advised to be taken. The same price is also available on Betfair for those of you who play on the exchanges.

Bookie’s Enemy on racing

A maximum win bet today for readers in the shape of the Paul Nicholls trained MASSASOIT in the 2.00 race at Lingfield at around the 7/4 mark.

Favourite in the morning papers is Weird Al, however he is a confirmed non runner following his victory at Cheltenham yesterday. That leaves a three runner affair, but essentially it is a two horse race with Massasoit taken to beat Burton Port who got the better of the selection last time.

That race was at Bangor on soft ground over an extended 2m 4f with Burton Port triumphing by just under 3 lengths. Massasoit was the 11/10 favourite that day, however, a couple of early mistakes left him with plenty of work to do and in the circumstances he did well to finish so close to the winner.

Today’s race is a very different affair being over 3m on heavy ground. Trainer Paul Nicholls thinks that his inmate is crying out for the further trip and he will love the ground. In addition the selection is in receipt of 4lb from his conqueror and everything looks in place for a revenge mission today
 
Recommendation:

Maximum win bet, Massasoit 2.00 Lingfield – 7/4

For details of all today’s account bets visit www.BookiesEnemy.co.uk or call 0907 004 0074 (recorded message with today’s account bets).

The Mathematician on racing

C H E L T E N H A M

I want to get this Meeting out of the way quickly
as it doesnt look a card I can say much about today.
I have Previewed the Big Race at 2.25pm and that
is in the Main Previews below. Other than that a
lot of short priced favourites that I dont want to
oppose so it makes it a card to avoid really,

CHELTENHAM 12.10

Trappy little Juvenile Hurdle over 17f. I respect the
favourite ULTIMATE but I'd rather have a horse with
more than 1 run. All recent winners had more than one
run unless that was in a Graded race and I think it would
be an advantage to have poor. There is a strange trend
that tells me you want a 2 Miler up in trip not a horse
thats already run at 17f so SERGEANT PINK is not a
horse I would want. EBIAYN is unraced so I will leave
him. GEORGE NYMPTON has failed to win in his two
races.  I see this as a race for a split stake bet. OLOFI
and BOCAMIX are experienced. OLOFI has Grade 2
form and comes from a good trial race and BOCAMIX
won easily last time. I would argue that a split stake bet
on this pair around 4/1 and 8/1 gives you a fair chance.

CHELTENHAM  12.45

There look to be 4 horses in this 3m 1.5f Novice Chase
that can win. I dont see any strong negatives and feel it
may come down to the jumping. Statistically though I'd
argue INCHIDALY ROCK has the best profile. I looked
at horses in this race with 1 race this season in a Novice
Chase. Horses that won that race when having 7 or fewer
career starts had a W W W W 2 3 record and I think he
has the best profile. INCHIDALY ROCK looks best.
 

CHELTENHAM  1.50

The Bristol Novice Hurdle does at least have a manageable
field. TELL MASSINI would be an unoriginal pick but he
comes from winning the best trial race and I dont see many
I could pick in his place despite poor odds. If I was betting in the race I would consider BYGONES OF BRID each way at a much better price. The price about him placing will be twice as good than the price about the favourite winning so I would see that as a better option so mainly on the price I would go with BYGONES OF BRID each way.

CHELTENHAM 2.25 - Preview Below

CHELTENHAM  3.05 - CELESTIAL HALO has to be the one
for me. I dont like all the tack about Punjabi being stuffy
and needing the run and I think the favourite will win. I
feel the same about ZAYNAR who can win the last race.

CHELTENHAM 2.25

Boylesports.com Gold Cup (A Handicap Chase)
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

11/2 Poquelin, 6/1 Chapoturgeon, Atouchbetweenacara
10/1 Razor Royale, 10/1 Sky4s The Limit, Tamarinbleu
12/1 Hold Em, 12/1 Skippers Brig, 16/1 Mount Oscar
20/1 From Dawn To Dusk, 20/1 Jayo, 25/1 Gwanako
25/1 Our Vic, 33/1 Bible Lord, 33/1 Idole First
33/1 Stan, 50/1 Knowhere.

N E G A T I V E S

CHAPOTURGEON is only a 5 year old and the no horse
as young as that has won this race in recent years. He only had 7 fences on his seasonal debut before falling.  Given He is only 5 he looks to have a lot of weight in this race and I would be sceptical about his chance. SAPHIR DES BOIS is also a 5 year old and rejected. We know that every winner of this since 1993 were aged 6-7-8. We also know 32 of the last 40 winners were that age. We know the last horse winning this aged 10 or more was in 1974 and very few of  them placed as well. I would take out all the horses aged 10 and more. OUR VIC - STAN - FROM DAWN TO DUSK KNOWHERE -MOUNT OSCAR and IDOLE FIRST have
to go. I think THE SAWYER is too exposed in handicaps
and isnt the right type. BIBLE LORD is also too exposed
and I think he wants a small field. TAMARINBLUE is not
the best age and over exposed over fences and in handicaps. He is now in his 5th season Chasing and has to be vulnerable I dont like JAYO much. No horse aged 6 stepped up so far in distance and he has no handicap chase experience and I think this race will find him out from a tough mark. I am against GWANKO the wrong type of 6 year old and surely having too much weight.

P O S S I B L E S

ATOUCHBETWEENACARA looked impressive last year
winning at Cheltenham off 129. He has been raised to 148
now and has changed stables. A Horse of potential but he's
been rated accordingly and we have not had a seasonal debut
winner since 1993 and that winner had over a stone less in
weight. On top of that he only has the minimum number of
ideal chase starts and looked a little underraced as a Novice and overraced in Handicaps. HOLD EM is a bit too exposed but not by far. It would worry me that he has ran 10 times in Handicaps which is twice more than any of the last nine winners. His preparation differs from all past winners as well as he has been running through the summer and autumn. He is nearly there but he isnt there and why I dont want to tip him.POQUELIN was a decent 2nd in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Ground that was too soft. Statistically he has a solid and decent profile. I didnt think you could pick many faults. I see there has been 3 winners aged 6. Two of these had very lightweights. The only 6yo to win with a high weight was Exotic Dancer in 2006 and POQUELIN best mirrors him. However we know Exotic Dancer was a Top Class Horse and he won the Paddy Power in his prep race. Its possible significant POQUELIN didnt win that race and has more  weight than he did. His biggest test will be whether a 6 year old can carry that weight and whether the handicapper has given him too much to do. The ground will also be a factor.

SHORTLIST

SKY4S THE LIMIT

SKY4S THE LIMIT is the right age and has the right sort
of exposure in Handicaps and over fences. His performance
winning the Coral Cup in 2005 was statistically brilliant and groundbreaking. He ran well last time out from a big weight in a Handicap Chase and has to be considered here.

SELECTION

SKIPPERS BRIG
RAZOR ROYALE

SKIPPERS BRIG has a strong profile. He is the right age.
He has enough Chasing experience without being overraced
in handicaps. He is a second season chaser. He is up in class but looks ready for that move having won 4 of his 6 chase starts and coming here in form and progressive he's solid.

RAZOR ROYALE has a reasonably good profile and is just
about experienced enough over fences. Purely on his profile
I would give him a fair chance. The main issue for me is He
drops down in distance further than any past winner.

SELLECTION - RAZOR ROYALE
SAVER - SKIPPERS BRIG
 
****************************************************
****************************************************

Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk