Welcome to the Saturday Column.

Lots of new readers who have come to Progambler via my new football site www.scottishfootballbets.co.uk

If you haven’t checked it out yet please give it a look.

A note on the column:

The idea with The Progambler Saturday Column is to showcase the work of some of the services we are monitoring. In terms of the advice below it is presented to allow members to pick and mix what they want to read or follow-up – a bit like a newspaper sports section or indeed a condensed Racing Post. Obviously, there is loads of stuff in here but we have decided on this format on the basis of the providing ‘something for everyone’ approach. If you are new to Progambler spend a couple of weeks familiarising yourself with the content and working out where your interests lie. Otherwise it is an awful lot to read on a Saturday morning!

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I hope you enjoy the column and good luck however you are betting today.
Best wishes,
Greg
Greg Gordon
www.ProGambler.co.uk

Greg’s Scottish Football wwwscottishfootballbets.com

St Mirren to bt St Johnstone  SPL 12/5 Skybet (11/5 VC) 0.7pt
St Johnstone v St Mirren SPL Draw 12/5 Skybet (11/5 Wm Hill) 0.3pt

St Johnstone were well and truly turned over in a 3-0 defeat at Ibrox last Saturday and after a bright start, it could be that, manager Derek McInnes’ worst fears are being realised.

The ex-Rangers, West Brom and Dundee United midfielder told a contact in the summer that promotion to the SPL could be a bridge to far for the Perth Saints. At the time, the boss’ budget didn’t stretch far enough to cover a full complement of backroom staff, never mind players. Now with as many as nine ruled out for tomorrow’s home game, and a few harsh realisations beginning to dawn, we expect St Johnstone to struggle – at least in the short-term.

With nine first teamers out, St Johnstone look set to have to turn to the versatile Dave Mackay in order to have a central defensive partner for Graham Gartland when St Mirren come calling tomorrow – and that looks a very weak pairing indeed. Especially so in a side already lacking confidence.

With key man Kevin Rutkiewicz out long term and Stuart McCaffrey and Steven Anderson both doubtful, boss Derek McInnes is short of natural options for the role.

And he seems certain to turn to Mackay for a stand in if Anderson and McCaffrey are ruled out simply through a lack of alternatives.

“We signed Dave in the summer to put pressure on every position across the back line,” said McInnes.

“And although he has bedded himself in at right-back, where he has produced a real consistency of performance, I know he’ll never let us down whatever role we ask him to take on.

“The position we are in at the moment is such we may need to shift things about. And in such circumstances players like Dave Mackay, are vital.”

In addition to Rutkiewicz (key), Collin Samuel (key), Martin Hardie and Andy Jackson are sidelined while Danny Grainger (key) is struggling. They do however have Steven Milne back in training, although the best he could hope for this weekend would be a place on the bench.

Between the level of absenteeism and coming off the back of a dreadful performance in losing to Rangers, McInnes does not have his troubles to seek and yesterday he called on his players to pull together to overcome their problems.

“What with the injuries we have—and unfortunately it’s big players and big characters we are without—and the nature of the loss at Ibrox we have to rally round and dig out a win against St Mirren to get us going again,” he said.

“We’re not enjoying the best of luck just now but we need to forget about that and what happened last week and see Saturday for what it is—an opportunity to get back on track.

“The fact we’ve failed to win our last two home games has impacted on us, he said. And that will not have gone unnoticed in the St Mirren camp. The Paisley Saints, with their dour brand of percentage football are probably no-one’s idea of their ‘favourite second team’. Indeed there isn’t much to love at all about St Mirren boss Gus MacPherson’s pragmatic approach to the game. Defenders defend, midfielders are ball winners and big forwards contest flicks and second balls. St Mirren beat who they need to beat and with each passing season they remain in The SPL, MacPherson can slowly increase the quality in his squad.

As such, counter-attacking, efficient St Mirren are probably the last side Derek McInnes would want to face tomorrow.

This is hardly a glamour tie and on the back of a thumping at Ibrox it may be difficult to lift these already undermined players. With speculation intensifying that McIness himself could be about to return to rivals Dundee United if Craig Levein takes on the Scotland job, then this could be the moment that Saints throw in a real bum showing. Of course, football rarely conforms to such a sensible plan but in this case, we have the prices on our side. A best price of 12/5 says the away team have just a 29% win chance. My price of 17/10 puts that chance at a lively 37%. My slight preference though is for a split stake bet where a draw returns our full outlay with no harm done.

Equine Investments on Racing
www.equineinvestments.co.uk

Anyone who knows our reports will already have read that we rate Laurence Lambourn’s Equine Investments as the best horse racing service there is and the best of the last five years. The membership is currently closed but while I chip away at Laurence trying to persuade him that he should provide a cheaper weekend only service for new clients, he has agreed to offer us the occasional column selection. Here is the third offering:

1.55 wolverhampton – another try – he is a little one paced but ran slightly better than the bare form last time in a hotter race than this,  a little wide on the track that day and the step up in trip should be no problem, plenty of 10/1 about he looks worth chancing.

Bookie’s Enemy on racing
Nothing Today
 

For details of all today’s account bets visit www.BookiesEnemy.co.uk or call 0907 004 0074 (recorded message with today’s account bets).

The Mathematician on racing

WOLVERHAMPTON 1.55

32Red.com Handicap (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-68) 7f32y

7/2 Just Timmy Marcus, 5/1 Golden Prospect, Striker Torres, 6/1 Obe Gold, 8/1 Another Try, 8/1 Borasco, 10/1 Obe Brave, 14/1 Whatyouwoodwishfor, 20/1 Vogarth, 25/1 Haasem, 25/1 Highland River, 33/1 Electric Warrior.

This is a 7f handicap for 0-66 rated horses. I do like the
profiles of the 3 year olds JUST TIMMY MARCUS and
STRIKER TORRES who were 2nd and 3rd in the same
race last time. I felt they had excellent chances and the
opposition do have problems. I dont see anything I like
about  Electric Warrior -Highland River - Vogarth. There
has been 134 similar races at this time of year. None of
the winners were like WHATYOUWOODWISHFOR in
coming froma  3yo handicap over 6f. None came from
a 6f Claimer as BORASCO does. There are few winners
from Sellers and none were as old as OBE GOLD. You
can argue HAASEM wont be fit. ANOTHER TRY has
a chance but is up in trip and has little backclass and is
not looking well treated after 3 wins in 13 runs. I feel
OBE BRAVE has a chance and GOLDEN PROSPECT
has a good profile and this pair ae probably the main
dangers to the 3 year olds. I see the best option this

STRIKER TORRES - Win Bet  9/2

GOLDEN PROSPECT - Saver bet 5/1

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LINGFIELD 2.00

William Lennox 87th Birthday Handicap
(Div II) (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) 5f

11/4 Thoughtsofstardom, 4/1 Edith4s Boy, 5/1 Buy On The Red
11/2 Littlemisssunshine, 6/1 Peopleton Brook, 10/1 Cape Royal 12/1 After The Show, 20/1 Especially Special, Raimond Ridge

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-69 rated horses
* This is Division 2 of the 1.30pm Handicap
* There has been 128 similar races in December
* The Draw Suggests Stall 1 is disadvantaged
* In races of 9 + runners the last stall 1 winner was July 2008
* All 55 that tried to win from stall 1 since then failed
* CAPE ROYAL doesnt appeal from stall 1
* Not aged 9 without a recent run and no Sand wins
* He has 1 Third place from 13 runs on Sand and is out
* BUY ON THE RED has a poor drawn in stall 2
* BUY ON THE RED is from a seller as were 3 winners
* No horse came from a 5f seller like him (0-8)
* No horse aged 5 or more came from sellers (0-12)
* BUY ON THE RED doesnt stand out as solid to me
* LITTLEMISSSUNSHINE looks underraced to me
* I cant find an older filly like her
* Not with so few runs this year and a 3 week break
* I dont see her as solid statistically
* ESPECIALLY SPECIAL makes no appeal
* Not as a Filly coming from a Claimer
* No fillies of any age won doing that
* RAIMOND RIDGE comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses doing that had a 0-39 record in 128 races
* RAIMOND RIDGE looks opposable because of that
* No exposed 3yo like him won without a recent run
* RAIMOND RIDGE looks weak statistically
* PEOPLETON BROOK doesnt appeal from a claimer
* 5 winners came from claimers but had recent runs
* Those without a run within 14 days were 0-38
* Aged 7 - exposed - down in trip and 22 days off isnt good
* PEOPLETON BROOK doesnt make the shortlist
* AFTER THE SHOW doesnt appeal
* No horse his age dropped down from a 6f race
* Not without a run within 7 days

SHORTLIST

* EDITH4S BOY is 3 and has just won an all aged handicap
* I looked at all 3yo's doing that with 13 + runs like him
* I found a 3-10 record and 5 more were placed
* 8 of the 10 that tried placed and 3 of them won
* EDITH4S BOY has a solid profile
* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is fine statistically
* He also won this race comfortably last year
* With a recent run he is a big player

SELECTION - THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM 3/1
SAVER - EDITH'S BOY 3/1

 
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Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk