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Greg Gordon
www.ProGambler.co.uk

Greg’s Scottish Football wwwscottishfootballbets.com
Cowdenbeath to bt East Fife Scottish Second 11/10 Coral, Ladbrokes, Bet 365, Skybet, Blue Square 1pt

East Fife's players will be asked to turn on a show for the large derby day crowd expected at New Bayview on Saturday – but they may be disappointed.

The cash-strapped club has knocked down admission prices for the match against Cowdenbeath which, if it goes ahead, will be the Fifers' first competitive fixture since the 3-0 victory over Dumbarton on December 12.

And boss Stevie Crawford now hopes his men can put on an good showing to win bragging rights for the likely increased crowd in the match against the league leaders.

Crawford said: "I've kept an eye on their results and, in the last 11 games, they've only conceded about five goals so Danny (Lennon, Cowdenbeath manager) obviously has them well set up.

"They seem to stick with the same formation and it's been working for them.

It is this tactical and personnel continuity (and Cowdenbeath now also have a fully injury-free squad to choose from) that has propelled The Blue Brazil to the top of the pile. That could give them the edge tomorrow allied to the Sports Science and training work Lennon appears to be doing behind the scenes at Central Park. Although Cowdenbeath are ostensibly a part time side, Lennon has five first team youngsters in full time and it appears to be paying dividends on the field. Before the enforced break, Cowden’s superior stamina was quite obvious late in their games – particularly in a 10-man win over Stenhousemuir (which we backed), when they last played on December 15th. After the enforced lay-off I expect the superior Cowden stamina to come sharply into focus again tomorrow.

There has also been a marked lack of quality separating East Fife from the leading lights this term. A look at their results shows they have yet to beat the likes of Alloa, Cowdenbeath or Stirling this term.

East Fife’s last home game was a 2-0 defeat to Alloa and boss Stevie Crawford says: "In the last home game, I was really disappointed about the way we went about our business in the first half, but we improved in the second and we were unlucky to not get an equaliser. We can't come out the traps as slowly as that in a derby game again.

"Hopefully, there will be a few extra bums on seats and people will be itching to get to a game again, so we've got to make sure we're up for it right from the start."

I do like this modern New Bayview ground. Unlike its fearsome predecessor it boasts good modern facilities and a generally excellent surface – indeed it is a ground that offers no home advantage whatsoever. Cowdenbeath are masters off all conditions – thanks to the poor, poor conditions of their own awful Central Park, so I expect Cowden to relish the opportunity to express themselves tomorrow after the lay-off. With better, fitter players and no home advantage there is a lot to like about Cowden’s chances tomorrow.

The poor weather conditions last week again made it difficult for East Fife to find training facilities, with the squad heading to a primary school in Dunfermline to use its gym.

The team has also been using Leven beach and taking part in spinning sessions. Although Stevie Crawford is sure fitness will not be an issue come Saturday I have my doubts.

He says: "It's not ideal to be out on the beach and then indoors because of the difference in surfaces," said the manager.

"But we've done enough to keep them ticking over, so fitness levels will not be an excuse.

"The boys have trained hard when we've had them out and have really been looking after themselves."

My own impression is that Danny Lennon is by far the shrewder and more thorough boss. If forced to speculate, as I am doing slightly here, I’d be quite confident that Cowdenbeath will be the better prepared side for this derby.

I have the visitor in at 10/11 (52% win chance) to make their superior organisation, fitness and ability tell against a youngish East Fife side bossed by a rookie manager. A widely available best price of 11/10 equates to a 48% win chance but on a day of extremely slim pickings, Cowdenbeath look worth chancing at the prices.

Bookie’s Enemy on racing
Jump racing finally returns today and we have a cracker in the shape of Rackham Lerouge in the 1.55 at Huntingdon, available at around the 7/4 mark.

This half brother to Punchestowns has been plying his trade in French bumpers notching a hat-trick with ease in the process. He makes his British debut today for Nicky Henderson in a race with not much strength in depth.

Although off the track for 202 days, fitness is unlikely to be an issue as his trainer is adept at getting one ready following a break. Add to that his trainer’s astonishing 43% strike rate with hurdlers at this track (all races 2005/6 onwards), plus the trainer / jockey combination strike rate of 22% over the same period, then everything looks in place for a big run today.
 
Recommendation:

Large win bet Rackham Lerouge, 1.55 Huntingdon – 7/4 generally

For details of all today’s account bets visit www.BookiesEnemy.co.uk or call 0907 004 0074 (recorded message with today’s account bets).

The Mathematician on racing
LINGFIELD 2.10

Bet African Nations Cup - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m2f

3/1 Alfie Tupper, 5/1 Atacama Sunrise, 6/1 Bavarica
7/1 Rapid City, 8/1 Jeer , 10/1 Charlie Smirke Bosamcliff
16/1 Society Venue, 25/1 Alqaahir 25/1 Maybe I Will
25/1 Whodunit.

This is a 10f Handicap and we have 350 of these races
at this time of year. Picking out a few poor profiles I'd
oppose MAYBE I WILL as a mare absent 230 days. I
oppose WHODUNIT from 7f with 1 run since March.
BAVARICA doesnt appeal as no exposed mare aged
7 or more defied a months absence in the 350 races. I
think RAPID CITY is a poor bet with 1 run since June.
SOCIETY VENUE looks underraced to me and I dont
want him from a career high mark. ALQAAHIR would
not be my first choice aged 8 absent 40 days. There
were a few winners like that but almost all had far less
weight and almost all had more backclass as well. It's
hard to rate BOSAMCLIFF as she has been hurdling
but I dont really want a mare from hurdles and she is
respected but avoided. I looked at 4 year old fillies in
350 races like ATACAMA SUNRISE. I found 8 fillies
like her that  came from 10f handicaps but those who
ran within the past fortnight had a 0-50 record and it
was only those from a longer break that won. That's
possibly a statistical blip but its a 0-50 record and I
dont see ATACAMA SUNRISE as safe because of
it. I looked at 4 year olds like CHARLIE SMIRKE who
came from Maidens with 9 or more career starts and
found a 2-66 record. To be fair to him both winners
were male like him and came from 8f maidens which
when applied turned into a 2-13 record so he's fine.

CHARLIE SMIRKE - I have found 2 similar winners

JEER - I give him a chance as he is well handicapped
 
ALFIE TUPPER - Strong Profile

SELECTION

ALFIE TUPPER  Win Bet

Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk