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Saturday Column 23 January 2010 |
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Written by Greg Gordon
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Saturday, 23 January 2010 |
Welcome to the Saturday Column.
Lots of new readers who have come to Progambler via my new football site www.scottishfootballbets.co.uk
If you haven't checked it out yet please give it a look.
A note on the column:
The idea with The Progambler Saturday Column is to showcase the work of some of the services we are monitoring. In terms of the advice below it is presented to allow members to pick and mix what they want to read or follow-up - a bit like a newspaper sports section or indeed a condensed Racing Post. Obviously, there is loads of stuff in here but we have decided on this format on the basis of the providing ‘something for everyone' approach. If you are new to Progambler spend a couple of weeks familiarising yourself with the content and working out where your interests lie. Otherwise it is an awful lot to read on a Saturday morning!
Also, I have added a mail out on Saturday that lets members know when the column has been posted up and provides a link to save you constantly re-checking the site for updates. If you would like to be added to the list that receive an email alert please drop an email to
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I hope you enjoy the column and good luck however you are betting today.
Best wishes,
Greg
Greg Gordon
www.ProGambler.co.uk
Greg's Scottish Football wwwscottishfootballbets.com
Double: Dunfermline (+0) Asian Handicap to bt Partick Scottish First and Forfar (+0) Asian Handicap to bt Albion Rovers Scottish Third William Hill pays 4.25/1 (VC pay 4.03/1, Bet 365 Pays 3.95) 1pt
NB for those looking for another alternative: Sporting bet are 4.16 on the DNB double
The idea with this double is to squeeze as much as possible out of two games where we feel our selections have a good chance of avoiding defeat. There are three ways we can be paid out: one winner and a drawn game (Dunf win, Forf draw or Forf win Dunf draw) sees our drawn game become a non-runner and us being paid on a win single on our sole winnining selection. And if both our teams win we are paid out at the double price as taken above. If both teams draw our stakes are refunded in full. Indeed, as long as both Dunfermline and Forfar avoid defeat the very worst we can do is get our stake back unharmed.
Dunfermline to bt Partick Scottish First
Long-time Pars favourite Greg Shields is set to renew acquaintances with his old teammates as Dunfermline travel to Firhill looking to get their promotion push back on track.
After the disappointment of being ejected from the Scottish Cup (despite beating Stenhousemuir 7-1) The Pars will be elated after learning on Thursday that the SFA had overturned their initial decision and reinstated them to the competition with a fine and a replay of the Stenhousemuir tie as punishment. With a newfound spring in their step they will be hoping to use the change of fortune and a good performance, that went unrewarded, away at league leaders Dundee last Sunday as a springboard to claim three points, and replicate their 3-1 victory over the Jags in November.
Standing in their way will be 33-year-old Shields, who left East End Park for the USA and the Carolina Railhawks in the summer. Shields signed on a three- month loan deal at Partick Thistle in December to see him through the American close season and he was pitched into an unfamiliar midfield role for his debut against Raith Rovers last Saturday.
Shields, who had two successful spells at East End Park, still lives in West Fife and recently went to watch the team when he returned home at the end of the American season. I think this could be a real powder keg situation for the former skipper - especially in a new position that he will take time to learn.
Raymond watched Partick's insipid showing at Kirkcaldy last Saturday. In advance, form, fitness and match sharpness, in the wake of the big freeze-up, all pointed to an away win for the aspirant title challengers from Glasgow's west end.
In summing up a poor day's work for The Jags, Raymond said: "Thistle played some nice football but ultimately lacked the cutting edge and strength to trouble a good defence. They are possibly a better proposition on a better pitch when they can get the ball down and play their football and when operating with a more physical presence in attack."
They are not sure to get any of their prerequisites on Saturday. The pitch they share with rugby side Glasgow Hawks is sure to be creaking now under the weight of some dreadful local weather and a heavy schedule of festive season games. At this time of year, like Raymond, I wonder if pretty, lightweight Partick can be taken on regularly because the prevailing playing conditions just won't suit them.
As for their lack of a physical presence up front. They could well be disappointed again. Lovell missed out last time with a groin strain and he is no certain starter this week either. If he plays, I suspect he could be off the pace too, with such an injury. That leaves the diminutive duo of Donnelly (no pace) and Buchanan (no composure) up front. It isn't a strikeforce that oozes goal threat generally - even at home.
The other decisive factor could arise if Thistle play their trademark open, passing game. They will be ripe for the taking with Dunfermline boasting the pace and width to punish sloppy crossfield passing on the counter attack. That is a real Thistle failing that won't be helped, in the short-term, while Shields is out of his comfort zone and still to forge an understanding with his new teammate Rowson in midfield.
Thistle are also slow at the back centrally, and with both fullbacks attack-minded, there could be real opportunities for Dunfermline's array of quick and wide players (Graham, Gibson, Cardle) to make hay on the break. The big Northern Ireland striker Andy Kirk is also a very decent player at this level and his ability is reflected in a pay packet that makes him amongst the highest paid players in Division One.
The Pars will be without Graham Bayne, and long term injury worries Stephen Glass and Scott Muirhead, while Alex Burke is hopeful of shaking off a calf injury he picked up in training in time for the game. The rule with Dunfermline is that they can only be backed when at or near full strength. I am happy with their likely starting lineup. Ultimately, Dufermline lack the squad depth to take the battle with Dundee to the wire but on their day you could say, with some conviction, that their best XI is perhaps stronger man for man than the title favourites' side. Unfortunately nobody in Division One boasts players to surpass Dundee's playmaker Gary Harkins or the dynamic teenage hitman Leigh Griffiths, the hottest property currently in Scottish football. And that should be enough to gift the Dens Park men the title.
Make no mistake, Partick are no Dundee (‘The Chelsea of Scottish football' as Thistle boss Ian McCall dubbed them) and as a result, this is a more straightforward proposition for Dunfermline. I think the compilers have overreacted to an unlucky Dunfermline defeat at Dens last Sunday when pricing up Saturday's away trip to Glasgow.
In a ‘must win' game for both sides, I had Dunfermline in at 27/20 ( 42% win chance). That equates to a best price of 12/5 (29% win chance) and a fairly solid bet.
Forfar to bt Albion Rovers Scottish Third
Preseason bookmakers' favourites Forfar Athletic can now concentrate on their league promotion aspirations after bowing gracefully out of the Scottish Cup on Monday evening.
Premier League outfit St. Johnstone were too hot for a Loons' side playing a first competitive fixture since mid-December.
Forfar competed well enough but the full-time Saints were clinical in front of goal and had a healthy two-goal advantage by the interval, before finally running out 3-0 winners.
Forfar now have 20 league games ahead of them in the race for a promotion play-off spot, the first of them at Albion Rovers this Saturday.
Loons' boss Dick Campbell is keen to strengthen his squad for the hectic spell ahead - and he will have new faces available for selection by the weekend.
Jamie Bishop, Paul Watson and the talismanic veteran playmaker Barry Sellars, all from Angus neighbours Arbroath, have signed on until the end of the season. All three are potentially excellent, exciting additions.
However, Forfar's strengthening may have less influence on Saturday than plain and simple fatigue for Albion Rovers.
After a month off due to the weather, Albion Rovers were plunged back into the fray this week with two hard-fought cup games against Second Division highflyers Stirling.
This is their third game since Monday after a month off. That looks like a tall order - especially on Albion's home park, the notorious Cliftonhill.
The energy-sapping surface will be bottomless, rutted, treacherous and/or frosted on Saturday.
Even in August, Cliftonhill is a woebegone venue. It is forever in a terrible state and it is literally an on record liability for passing side Albion Rovers in winter. And that, it must be added, is without the complicating factor of a month off followed by two short, sharp (cup) shocks earlier this week.
There is more steel than style in this Forfar side and that should stand them in good stead in Monklands. I'd expect the tidy, functional play of Kevin Fotheringham and Darren Brady to control possession on the public park-like pitch. On his debut, Forfar hometown boy Barry Sellars can always be relied upon to turn a tight game with a killer setpiece, a defence splitting pass or an ambitious shot.
For Albion it is all about unavailable players with the dull fact of their brave, extinguished cup adventure now a dawning reality.
Loanees Strachan and Gormley are gone and Rovers' one notable dangerous front-man, mercurial Marc Pollock, is out with ligament damage for at least 8 weeks. Paul McLeod (ex-Hamilton and Dumbarton) boosts the ranks for Saturday but his lack of confidence, on the back of a lost year spent drifting in the game, and likely problems on the Cliftonhill surface suggest he won't make an immediate impact. Indeed, even on a good pitch, it would be difficult to envisage Albion running riot with the limited attacking personnel at their disposal.
Though Albion have lost just once at home all season (1-0 to Queens Park), Forfar were good enough to register a draw when the sides last met in Lanarkshire in September.
In their current configurations, Albion look temporarily weakened by potential fatigue and a lack of attacking options. Forfar, for their part, will be strengthened by their additions from Arbroath and I expect Dick Campbell's Loons to add that bit of consistency to their repertoire that was missing in the season's first two quarters.
Forfar boast better players in key positions in midfield and up front. I also think the immediate context of the game favours the away side who should be significantly fresher, despite defeat to SPL side St Johnstone on Monday.
I made Forfar 4/5 a 55% win chance. A best price of 6/4 says their win chance is just 40%.
Bookie's Enemy on racing
Soft / heavy ground is the order of the day today and conditions look ideal for HUKA LODGE to add to his winning tally at Haydock at around the 7/2 mark.
His last win at this course came just over 2 years ago when galloping on relentlessly over this distance in heavy ground and conditions are exactly the same today, meaning a big run could be on the cards.
The selection was third in the corresponding race last year and despite approaching retirement at the grand old age of 13, he looks to be still improving. Since that creditable third he has gone on to win at Carlisle (3m heavy ground) and followed up with a very decent second to the smart Mr Strachan at Hexham last time out.
Those two runs are close to, if not the best of his career on figures, and today looks a tailor made opportunity for connections to add to his retirement fund.
Our other account bets are detailed below, together with advises staking plan.
Recommendations:
3 points win Huka Lodge, 1.45 Haydock - 7/2 generally
3 points win Qozak, 3.10 Ascot - 3/1 generally
3 points Knockara Beau, 2.20 Haydock - 4/1 generally
Plus a 1 point win trixie (3 doubles and 1 treble) on the above
For details of all today's account bets visit www.BookiesEnemy.co.uk or call 0907 004 0074 (recorded message with today's account bets).
The Mathematician on racing
HAYDOCK 1.10
11/8 Radium, 13/8 Peddlers Cross, 7/2 Scriptwriter, 14/1 Charlie Tipple.
This is a Graded Novice Hurdle. There are only 4 renewals of this race and only 6 similar races at this time of year. I would argue that as all 6 winners had at least 3 career starts it's not a good idea to risk CHARLIE TIPPLE. I dont fancy RADIUM either from a Novice Handicap. There has been 169 Grade 2 Novice Hurdles run since 1994. Thats 169 races at any time of year and over any distance. If you look at horses that came from a Novice Handicap Hurdle like RADIUM you find only 1 winner in 1994. They had a 1-43 record in all similar races and none were aged 5 and none did it at distances short of 2m 4f. RADIUM looks a horse with the wrong profile and an unsafe preparation. With SCRIPTWRITER still a maiden over hurdles and facing a long absence and coming down from 3m to 2m today I would have to see PEDDLERS CROSS as the bet. He is unbeaten in Points and over hurdles. I feel he has by far the best profile and I think PEDDLERS CROSS will win.
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ASCOT 1.30
10/11 Advisor, 5/2 Barwell Bridge, 7/1 Heez A Cracker
12/1 Ebiayn, 16/1 Spiv, 20/1 Dark Oasis, 20/1 Prince Pippin
33/1 Alhaque.
The Juvenile Hurdle looks best left to ADVISOR who put up a smart performance on his debut. I think he achieved more than BARWELL BRIDGE last time. ADVISOR has the better stable.Stronger owners. Stronger form. Comes from a better track. It's not neccesarily all relevant but I just felt he looked stronger in too many areas. There is also the fact BARWELL BRIDGE was kept away from soft ground on the flat and may not appreciate it as much. With EBIAYN needing to improve and possibly is being handicapped and Heez A Cracker unraced it does look a match and I think ADVISOR will probably win.
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HAYDOCK 1.45
4/1 Garleton, Huka Lodge , 7/1 Sherwoods Folly, Supreme Keano 8/1 Never So Blue 10/1 Jaunty Journey, Malko De Beaumont 14/1 Boris The Blade 14/1 Himalayan Trail.
This is a 3m 4f Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-129. There has been 68 similar races at this time of year. None of the 68 winners were 13 years old or more like HUKA LODGE. I dont fancy him for the following reasons.
* Since 1994 there has been 605 similar 3m 4f handicaps
* Thats any time of year and between 3m 3f and 3m 5f
* Horses aged 13 or more won 10 of the 605 races
* Only 1 horse that age defied a months absence
HUKA LODGE is vulnerable as a 13yo. No horse as old as HIMALAYAN TRAIL defied such an absence. I dont like MALKO DE BEAUMONT's chance. BORIS THE BLADE doesnt look good enough. I think the weight could beat JAUNTY JOURNEY an inexperience horse who hasnt yet completed in a handicap. SHERWOODS FOLLY has a chance but a tough weight and I didnt think he would win.
GARLETON - Strong Profile and likely winner SUPREME KEANO - Great chance if he can jump well NEVER SO BLUE - Good chance - Local owners - Has to stay
SELECTION - GARLETON
SAVER - NEVER SO BLUE
Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk
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Last Updated ( Saturday, 23 January 2010 )
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