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Welcome to the Saturday Column. Lots of new readers who have come to Progambler via my new football site www.scottishfootballbets.co.uk If you haven't checked it out yet please give it a look. A note on the column:
The idea with The Progambler Saturday Column is to showcase the work of some of the services we are monitoring. In terms of the advice below it is presented to allow members to pick and mix what they want to read or follow-up - a bit like a newspaper sports section or indeed a condensed Racing Post. Obviously, there is loads of stuff in here but we have decided on this format on the basis of the providing ‘something for everyone' approach. If you are new to Progambler spend a couple of weeks familiarising yourself with the content and working out where your interests lie. Otherwise it is an awful lot to read on a Saturday morning! Also, I have added a mail out on Saturday that lets members know when the column has been posted up and provides a link to save you constantly re-checking the site for updates. If you would like to be added to the list that receive an email alert please drop an email to
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email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it, requesting to be added to the mailing list. I hope you enjoy the column and good luck however you are betting today. Best wishes, Greg Greg Gordon www.ProGambler.co.uk Greg's Scottish Football wwwscottishfootballbets.com Double: Dunfermline to bt Ross Cty Draw No Bet Scottish First and Forfar to bt Berwick Scottish Third Pays 6.88 Boyles (6.25 Wm Hill, VC) 0.5pt Take anything better than 5.06. Both Dunfermline and Ross Cty – the two sides I most enjoy watching in the First Division – warmed up for tomorrow’s compelling Highland head to head with notable performances in the cup last week. The home side RC smashed an insipid Stirling Albion side 9-0 on a day where simply everything they tried appeared to come off for them as they equalled Stirling’s worst ever result on record. At East End Park on Sunday, Dunfermline took a shock 2-1 lead over Celtic and ran the Glasgow giants far closer than the final 4-2 scoreline suggests. The key thing I picked up from the highlights was that the Victoria Park pitch in Dingwall looks in excellent condition (comparatively) so we should get a good open game tomorrow from two sides committed to attacking. Quite literally there is nothing between these sides as two previous draws attest and I think it makes sense to side with the underrated visitors with a draw saver. I like the match-up of compact Ross Cty against counter attacking Dunfermline with their two wingers in full flow. I had Ross County no smaller than 15/8 (34%). I want to oppose them at evens (50%) a ridiculously short price. Forfar to bt Berwick (2nd leg of double) Gregor really didn’t take to Berwick in their 3-2 defeat at East Stirling last Saturday and his view backed up an unfavourable summary from Michael after a 2-0 defeat for The Borderers at Hampden. Forfar meanwhile will be on a high after a 94th minute equaliser against league leaders Livingston. Our impression of Forfar is generally positive especially with the addition of the Arbroath players Watson, Bishop and Sellars in the transfer window. Sellars is yet to make his debut, due to injury, but the others have played their part so far – notably with Watson’s winner on his debut v Albion Rovers. This is a simple price call as we believe Forfar are a better side than Berwick in all the key areas (except perhaps the goalkeeping position). I’d give Forfar a 43% win chance based on current form (13/10). A best price of 17/11 is around a 37% win chance. Bookie's Enemy on racing Once again we have three account bets this Saturday and we are follwoing a staking plan similar to last week, where our one winner Tazbar ensured that most of our stake was recouped. Our selections, together with staking recommended staking plan are shown below: . Recommendations: 3 points win VOY POR USTEDES, 3.40 Newbury - take 3/1. 3 points win MIRAGE DORE, 2.10 Ayr - take 5/2. 3 points win BALLABRIGGS, 2.40 Ayr - take 5/2. Plus a 1 point win trixie (3 doubles and 1 treble) on the above selections. For details of all today's account bets visit www.BookiesEnemy.co.uk or call 0907 004 0074 (recorded message with today's account bets). The Mathematician on racing NEWBURY 3.05 Totesport Trophy Hurdle (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m110y 7/1 Get Me Out Of Here, 7/1 Harry Tricker, 7/1 Spirit River 9/1 Mamlook, 10/1 Manyriverstocross, Ronaldo Des Mottes 10/1 Takeroc, 12/1 Any Given Day, 14/1 Stravinsky Dance 20/1 Fairyland, 20/1 Numide, 25/1 Frontier Dancer, 33/1 Arch Rebel, 33/1 Fushe Jo, 33/1 Oldrik, 40/1 First Point, 40/1 Songe 50/1 Blue Bajan, 50/1 European Dream, 50/1 Pascha Bere 66/1 Mutual Friend, 66/1 Ring The Boss, 66/1 Simarian 100/1 Chaninbar. The statistics for this race were sent a couple of days ago and are on the Ante Post section of the board. Not a lot of point in a big preview. I have applied the trends to every runner. I am not surprised there is no horse that passes all trends so I am adopting a " 3 strikes and out" rule. There are a few horses that only fail 1 or 2 angles and these will make up a long shortlist. In the end I shall pick one of them. My problem with GET ME OUT OF HERE is that in all the similar races lightly raced horses from Novice Hurdles like him all had more backclass. Thats my main objection with SPIRIT RIVER as well. No horse came from the class that he does and both are just short of backclass. I think you can argue ANY GIVEN DAY was closer to Large Action the 1994 winner than anything else but that horse was a year older and did better last time. His trainer also thinks he needs further. TAKEROC fails some stats. On the plus side he comes from a good trial race. I would have liked to see him win a race more recently. Some of his failings are forgivable. RONALDO DES MOTTES is held up by the poor record of 5 year olds from 2m races. I cant rule out FRONTIER DANCER at a big price but his last run has to be off-putting. MAMLOOK would be better with less runs and weight but he is as strong as most statistically. SELECTION - MAMLOOK **************************************************** **************************************************** NEWBURY 3.40 4/6 Master Minded, 100/30 Voy Por Ustedes, 9/2 Fix The Rib 9/1 Mahogany Blaze, 500/1 Kinkeel. Given all the issues in this race with Master Minded needing the run after an Injury I wouldnt want to bet him at odds on. I wouldnt be convinced that his cracked Rib was the problem anyway and considering his short price I'd much rather bet VOY POR USTEDES albeit at shorter than he likes. **************************************************** **************************************************** WARWICK 3.55 9/4 Kennel Hill, 5/1 Peveril, Bescot Springs, 7/1 Firm Order 7/1 Roko Dancer, 10/1 The Giant Bolster, 16/1 Alaska View 20/1 Hermoso, 25/1 Doran4s Lodge, 33/1 Handtheprizeover 33/1 Ironical, 40/1 Rester Vrai, 40/1 Spit, 40/1 Tannenberg 50/1 Munlochy Bay, Good To Be Grey, 100/1 Against The Rules. This is a 2m 5f Novice Hurdle. The form choice is clearly KENNEL HILL who comes from a Graded Hurdle but he was hammered in that just 14 days ago and that's precious little recovery time especially for a horse thats looking more exposed by the day. I think he is a big risk running quickly and would much prefer an each way alternative. One option is PEVERIL. I would rather bet PEVERIL than Kennel Hill but he isnt without worries. I looked at horses like him that won Novice Hurdles last time. They do need more than one run this season to have a good record. It worries me he has been off 76 days and has raced just once this year especially over 2m 5f and being underraced really hurts his profile. I'm not sold on BESCOT SPRINGS who was well beaten in only a maiden hurdle last time and who isno better than average statistically. He may not have much scope anyway. He was not expensive and his owners dont have outstanding types. I prefer two horses FIRM ORDER * There has been 360 similar races * Horses with 3 career runs * Horses from Maiden Hurdles over 17f-20f * There were 4 winners with that profile * Those like him that were 2nd last time out were 3-3 * FIRM ORDER looks a big runner based on that ROKO DANCER I give him a chance on his profile and his last run was in a warm Novice Hurdle. From a Top yard he could easily run well in this race. SELECTION FIRM ORDER 10/1 7/1 Win Bet ROKO DANCER 7/1 Saver Bet **************************************************** **************************************************** Guy Ward www.mathematician-betting.co.uk |
