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Greg Gordon
 
www.ProGambler.co.uk
 
Greg's Scottish Football wwwscottishfootballbets.com
Alloa to bt Peterhead Scottish Second Canbet 5/6 (4/5 Ladbrokes, Bet365, VC) 1.5pt

We have been singing the praise of our 14/1 ew antepost hopes Alloa for so long now that it is hard to think of much more new to say.

Alloa boast the best strength in depth in Division Two and a pair of proven goalscorers in former Airdrie teammates Prunty and Noble. Creatively too they have game-changing players in the likes of former Scotland U21 contender David Gormley and plastic turf specialists Brown Ferguson and Mark Gilhaney.  We’ve always felt that their Achilles Heel could be a defence marshalled by the paceless veteran Scott Walker but a record of 15 clean sheets this season suggests our doubts over Walker, and to a lesser degree keeper David Crawford, have been largely unfounded to date.

Indeed, Scott Walker has hailed Allan Maitland’s role in reviving the club in his local paper ahead of Saturday’s visit of Peterhead.

The Wasps title push, on paper at least, seems an improbable one after a difficult campaign last year.

Alloa are currently top of the Second Division table by five points, ahead of fierce local rivals Stirling Albion who have been badly hit by the glut of postponements since December.

The experienced stopper hailed his manager, citing his professionalism and experience as key factors in persuading players to come to Recreation Park but another factor is that Alloa, having sold teenager Greig Spence to Celtic, have had a bit of cash to spend.

Walker says: “Allan is without doubt the best man-manager I have worked under. He respects his players and gets that back.

“He understands every player as an individual and understands how we work within a group, that is how he manages us so well.”

With 22 games played so far and the winter weather playing havoc with the second part of the campaign Maitland is keen to stress there was still a long way to go.

However he has identified this Saturday’s game as another key step in proving their title credentials.

Maitland said: “If you can win your home games and take something away then you'll not be far away.

“We are doing fine and have built up a lead, but Stirling Albion have games in hand and Cowdenbeath are not far away.”

The weekend’s postponement at Central Park could allow Brown Ferguson  and Mark Gilhaney to return from niggles.

Winger Gilhaney has had continued hamstring problems after limping off in the Scottish Cup defeat at St Mirren.

Captain Ferguson was in trouble during the home win over East Fife. He was expected to miss last Saturday’s postponed game with the Blue Brazil but could be fine for tomorrow and he is a key man in the Alloa engine room.

Peterhead also missed out on action at the weekend as their home clash with Stenhousemuir at Balmoor fell victim to snow.

The Blue Toon have been inconsistent all campaign after being solid play-off contenders for the last few seasons. They are a young side bossed by a forthright manager in Neale Cooper. The boss’ input and also the negligible role of Peterhead’s experienced pros such as Bobby Mann and Paul Jarvie – who need all their energies to maintain their own contribution in games – perhaps explains Peterhead’s particularly poor road record.

The Blue Toon’s last match was a 3-0 defeat at home to Brechin City where striker Rory McAllister putting in a fine display but I saw them win their previous fixture at Cowdenbeath 3-1. I was not overly impressed, feeling that the game had a lopsided feel as a result of three, albeit well taken breakaways, and some extremely wasteful Cowden finishing. Had the game ended 1-0 or 2-1 or even 3-1 to the home side no-one would have complained.

Alloa are currently on a five-game unbeaten run after losing to SPL side St Mirren in the cup.

 Home victories over Arbroath and East Fife have been followed up with a point away to Brechin and victory over Stenhousemuir. Title-challengers Stirling Albion are again without a game through postponement so three points would be a big boost for the Wasps. I also like the little clutch of form in Alloa’s recent run with wins over East Fife, Arbroath and Cowden providing a decent yardstick for a game against Peterhead (a side more or less comparable with that trio).

Alloa beat East Fife at 8/11 (57% win chance) recently on their plastic pitch and I’d rate this game as a similar test. I had Alloa in at 4/6 (60%) that day and, after a 2-0 win, I am comfortable enough to repeat that quote tomorrow. A best price of 5/6 (54%) and on another weekend when the lower league card has been laid waste to, limiting our options, I want to push the boat out slightly with an additional 1/2pt on.

 
 
 Bookie's Enemy on racing

We have three account bets today:
3 points win SALDEN LICHT, 2.00 Kempton - take 3/1 generally.
5 points win ULTIMATE, 3.40 Kempton - take 5/4 generally.
Plus a 1 point win double.
Also, 2 points each way MADISON DU BERLAIS, 3.05 Kempton - take 8/1 generally.

For details of all today's account bets visit www.BookiesEnemy.co.uk or call 0907 004 0074 (recorded message with today's account bets).

 
 
 
 
 
 
The Mathematician on racing
 

KEMPTON 1.30

Racing & Football Outlook
Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m5f

13/8 River D4or, 4/1 Wolf Moon, 9/1 Clova Island, Numide
12/1 Cabinet Minister, 12/1 Sangfroid, 14/1 Dante Hall
14/1 Helpston, 14/1 Rathcor, 16/1 Stripe Me Blue, 25/1 Stow.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 17 renewals of this race
* There has been 92 similar races elsewhere at 2m 5f
* It's been dominated by lightly raced Hurdlers
* Horses that ran 13 or more times before had a 1-76 record.
* DANTE HALL - STRIPE ME BLUE fail that
* RATHCOR - NUMIDE fail that
* NUMIDE fails that and also comes from a 2m handicap
* Only 1 past winner did that and he was less exposed
* Horses aged 9 or more had a 0-42 record in this race
* DANTE HALL Fails that
* STOW has a weak profile aged 5 from a handicap
* No 5 year old doing it was beaten as far as him last time
* HELPSTON comes from a 3m handicap hurdle
* No past winner dropped from over 3 miles before
* In 92 similar races there were a few winners doing that
* None were aged 6 like HELPSTON (0-29)
* He also has just 2 runs this year
* I cant find a 6yo winner like HELPSTON
* WOLF MOON also comes from a 3m handicap hurdle
* No past winner dropped from over 3 miles before
* In 92 similar races I looked at horses doing that
* Those like him with under 9 runs were 2-38
* None of these were 7 year olds
* Both winners carried at least a stone less weight
* WOLF MOON also has some issues on the ground
* RATHCOR also drops from a 3m race
* No past winner of this did that
* Those like him with 13 + runs also struggled
* He looks to have plenty of question marks
* STRIPE ME BLUE also comes from a 3m handicap
* CABINET MINISTER is lightly raced
* I have found 2 winners with a similar profile
* None won this race but they did win other races
* The only trend he fails is that he has a recent run
* Horses that ran within 15 days were 0-36 in this race
* RIVER D4OR has a difficult to asses profile
* Lightly raced 5 year old with just 5 runs
* Thats perfectly fine for a race like this
* Thats assuming you allow his French runs
* The issue is twofold for me
* Is he experienced enough with just 2 hurdle runs
* Past winners of this had 9 10 7 9 9 7 17 6 9 5 9 10 9 6 runs
* Every past winner had at least 4 career starts
* If you include his French runs then its better
* I do worry if he can be well handicapped though
* Running in a Grade 1 on his England debut wont help
* He was comfortably beaten in a handicap last time
* Almost all 5yo's like him did better last time
* He is shortlistable with an unusual profile
* There are some concerns about him though
* SANGFROID is shortlistable with 13 runs
* My main worry with his is the flat track
* His trainer feels he is better on an undulating track
* CLOVA ISLAND has a strong profile
* He is lightly raced and hasnt run in 7 + weeks
* The 1995 and 2002 winners were similar types
* I ran his profile through 92 other races
* Male Horses aged 7
* Not run in the last 7 weeks
* 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle last time
* No form in Listed or Graded class
* 5-12 career starts
* Starting under 50/1
* CLOVA ISLAND shares that profile with 7 horses
* The results of the 8 horses with that profile were -
* W 2 W 2 6 W 2

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KEMPTON 3.05

Racing Post Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

7/2 Nacarat, 4/1 Fistral Beach, 9/2 Kilcrea Castle,
8/1 Madison Du Berlais, 12/1 Atouchbetweenacara
14/1 Oedipe, 16/1 Le Burf, 16/1 Piraya, 16/1 Private Be
20/1 Razor Royale, 28/1 Something Wells, 33/1 Bible Lord
66/1 Ollie Magern.

* The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 15 renewals of this race.
* There has been 70 similar races in Febuary
* Thats 70 Handicap Chases at 3m in Class 2 or higher

I think we can rule out Something Wells- Ollie Magern and
Bible Lord who wants a smaller field than this. PIRAYA may
also want a smaller field. All his dissapointing runs come in field sizes of 11 or more runners. Horses with 1 run this year score badly. Those like ATOUCHBETWEENACARA who
have to step up in trip struggle and he didnt do enough for
me last time. OEDIPE has just 1 run this year and I don't see enough in his profile to forgive him that. Experience could be a problem for FISTRAL BEACH who has had just 3 runs over Chases. The lightest raced chaser to win this was the high class Gloria Victus who won this in 2000 with just five  chase starts and went on to run in the Gold Cup after this race. It's asking a lot for  FISTRAL BEACH to win with just 3 runs. The 15 winners of this race all had more experience. They had 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 13 chase runs. I am looking elsewhere. I dont know if LE BURF will have the class. Most recent winners of this were unexposed. He isnt and none came from Class 3 races or lower like him. He  isnt proven beyond doubt over this distance and having never placed or won above a Class 3 grade before he may just be found out on a career high mark.

NACARAT won this easily last year by 11 lengths although
he was in much better form last year.  This year he has been beaten miles in all 3 races albeit in top class races. His issue is can he come back to form - and can he show he stays this far on much softer ground than last year and with a longer than ideal absence. If you look at the winners of this race in the past you want a consistent horse thats been running well all year and NACARAT does not fit that pattern. The Last 14  winners of this race ran 50 seperate times in the season they won. In these 50 races in the season they won - the winners managed to either Win or Place in 44 out of the 50 races. It's
a strong statistic that shows you want a horse thats running well all season and coming here with several wins and places this year. You want consistency as much as anything else in this race and Last time out winners won 12 of the last 16 races  and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one  falling. NACARAT hasnt placed since 2009 and I reject him.

SHORTLIST

RAZOR ROYALE - Best outsider - Small chance - Shortlistable

KILCREA CASTLE - Profile is quite good and a strong runner

MADISON DU BERLAIS - Class horse and every chance

PRIVATE BE - The arguments for him are persuasive

SELECTION

I dont really want to be with Madison Du Berlais as this
is a Momentum race. I would want a better stable for this
class than Kilcrea Castle. You can look at Private Be in
two ways. Ideally I wouldnt want a 11yo up in trip but
the arguments for him on the track and with some of his
form is persuasive off 10st weight so a split stake bet.

PRIVATE BE 10/1
RAZOR ROYALE 20/1

Split Stake Bet

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Guy Ward
 
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk