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Welcome to the Saturday Column.
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Greg Gordon
www.ProGambler.co.uk
Greg's Scottish Football wwwscottishfootballbets.com Forfar to bt East Stirling Scottish Third 7/4 Blue Square 888Sport (17/10 Bet 365) 1pt
Tomorrow's game probably respresents a battle of the also rans with Forfar and their hosts East Stirling likely to fill the play-off positions behind full-time Livingston come May.
So far the head to heads this season have gone with the general form. The Shire won the previous meeting 2-1 at the start of a purple patch of eight games unbeaten prior to the reality check of their comprehensive 2-0 home defeat to Livingston. The Livingston defeat triggered the current run of three succesive losses that also includes a 1-0 defeat at Annan and a 3-0 demolition at home to Queens Park on Tuesday. And as Shire are a streak team par excellence, I think it is wise to oppose them while they are in the grip of bad vibes. The first game between the sides - was a 5-1 home win for Forfar.
Football is so much a confidence game, even at this lowly Division Three level, especially in the case of East Stirling who really on a nucleus of attacking talent for their points (Stevenson, Rodger, Lynch, Maguire). Other than that key quartet The Shire are a team of odds and sods, little better than the average standard for this division. And if their Galacticos are out of sorts Shire are in trouble because they have no other way of playing than an effective but predictable offensive game. Having conceded six goals witout reply in their last three, I think the wind is very much gone from the home side's sails. Indeed, a dejected Jim McInally told Queens Park boss Gardner Speirs after their game on Wedneday that his team had been given a 'pumping' in the 3-0 defeat that is largely being attributed to the late loss of keeper Jamie Barclay to Scotland's U21 squad. Barclay is back tomorrow but I think the mental scars may remain for Shire's men.
I have seen Forfar play well on Ochilview's artificial surface against Stenny so I have no fears about home advantage particualrly or Dick Campbell's likely tactics. I'd expect his combative midfield to control possesion and the fact that Forfar also boast a decent setpiece threat is always a plus on the road.
Since they lost 2-1 to The Shire in November, Forfar have found their feet with a run of 10 games unbeaten in their last 11. That sequence includes a win and draw with the rightful title favourites Livingston and just a single defeat at the hands of SPL side St Johnstone in the cup. By any measure this is compellingly impressive form from a side who also freshened up their ranks in the transfer window with the addition of Sellars, Lunan and Watson from rivals Arbroath in the transfer window.
I gave Forfar a 6/4 (40%) win chance here. A best price of 7/4 equates to a 36% win chance.
Bookie's Enemy on racing A decent Saturday’s racing, despite the fact that Cheltenham is less than two weeks away. Our main account bet today runs in the 3.10 race at Newbury and we advise a decent each way bet on BATTLECRY at around the 13/2 mark. The selection looks to be running into form with three recent seconds to his name and the latter two runs particularly catching the eye as he looked to be travelling well before fading late on His trainer Nigel Twiston Davies reports the gelding to be in tremendous form and thinks that the drying ground and 2m 4f trip should be in his favour.. Today’s race is not the most strongest of races and he should be able to capitalise on his low weight of 10st 3lb. .
Recommendations: Decent each way bet Battlecry, 3.10 Newbury – 13/2. For details of all today's account bets visit www.BookiesEnemy.co.uk or call 0907 004 0074 (recorded message with today's account bets).
The Mathematician on racing
NEWBURY 2.05 Stanjames.com Supports Greatwood
Novices4 Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 3)
(4yo+ 0-120) 2m110y 7/2 Rock 4n4 Roller, 11/2 Acknowledgement, 11/2 Henry King, 6/1 Osric, 15/2 Tail Of The Bank, 9/1 Arctic Ben, 9/1 Full Of Joy, 10/1 Coeur De Fou, 12/1 Munster Pride, 12/1 Zafranagar 20/1 Freddie The Third. Tricky little Novice Handicap Hurdle and I think I mighy
struggle to solve it. I can see ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
has a strong chance but I dont like his absence and from
all similar races horses like him with absences didnt score
that well and almost all were highweights. OSRIC has ran
3 times from a 2m Novice Hurdle. Easy to assess him from
a statistical point of view. Horses with his profile are 3-92 and none ran within 2 weeks (0-14) and none were aged 7
or more. Only 1 was beaten as far as he was last time and
the issue is whether he has had enough recovery time to
overturn a heavy loss within 14 days. I didnt see a great
profile with this pair. If you look at horses aged 5 or more that come from 2m Novice Hurdles there are winners but
those with 4-5-6 career starts had a miserable 1-61 record
with that winner years ago. ROCK N ROLLER has a profile
fiting that as does HENRY KING. Not sure I can trust that
angles but I see flaws in both. COEUR DE FOU has quite
a tough absence to overcome and that hurts his profile
as I cant find a similar winner. Overall I thought the best
profile was probably FULL OF JOY. There is a Curiously
good record in this race with horses down in distance.
Hard to read on his maiden hurdle form when well beaten
last time but thats the nature of these races and I've found several winners like him. I will go with FULL OF JOY. ****************************************************
Guy Ward
www.mathematician-betting.co.uk |
