Mathematician Cheltenham Deal

When it comes to racing tipsters, there is no-one quite like Guy Ward aka The
Mathematician for splitting the opinions of tipster followers. So much so that
any prospective members should definitely take the time to experience the service
first hand, using the no risk free trial offered to Progambler readers. And with
Cheltenham in full cry (see sample message below) there is no better time to view
Guy’s work first hand.

Certainly from the www.progambler.co.uk
perspective, www.mathematician-betting.co.uk is a service that we are intimately
familiar with having proofed its results since July 2006 as part of my year
long tipster report for The Observer.

The consistent bugbear with the service is that, since its inception, Guy Ward
has struggled to find a formula that marries the twin client requirement of
supplying regular tips with Guy’s preference for supplying stats and info
that members can use themselves to find their own winners.

Personally speaking, and to get around any confusion, I back all Maths ‘top
of the message’ bets as if they are account bets if they are advised as
additional bets at the start of each daily email. This should give you one or
two bets most days and a straightforward strategy for following this service
if you simply want tips to follow and have neither time nor inclination to use
the rest of the message.

The service offers extensive ‘non account bets’, buried deeper
into the daily message, much more frequently. Anecdotally at least, these additional
picks also appear profitable, although they are unproofed by us here at www.progambler.co.uk.

There is no doubt too that www.mathematician-betting.co.uk is especially good
for those who want to learn the statistical and trends-based approach to race
reading and finding winners and also negatives (horses to lay).

Some members use the entire message and bet or trade on many of the races dissected,
some use it to pick forecasts etc to small stakes and others like to identify
weaker profiled horses in order to lay them. It is a service that should in
theory have something for every kind of punter if they can identify a winning
strategy and stick with it. The exception to that are the people that simply
want a horse name, race time and recommended stake only in their daily message.

The presentation of the emails and website is very old school but ultimately
that is not so important and doesn’t detract from what is a quality service.

It is worth emphasising that the messages reward study and they are great for
pulling out long priced winners.

My perception is that Guy Ward thrives at big meetings such as Cheltenham and
probably most on the All-Weather and low grade racing and that he would do well
to focus there – especially if he is seriously considering tightening up on
the size of daily message that is extremely comprehensive in its scope.

www.mathematician-betting.co.uk clearly has a very long standing client list
where, for the most part, his subscribers have been members for years and contribute
actively to a lively, friendly and informative forum that is also a key perk
of membership. That subscriber loyalty is a testament to the quality and usefulness
of the content offered.

I would also consider www.mathematician-betting.co.uk to be a fair and transparent
service.

Right now to Celebrate Cheltenham he is having a sale. Well a first month at
a cheap price. There is a strong refund Gurantee associated with this sale deal.
He has a strong reputation for integrety about such issues so I am 100 % confident
refunds if you want them will be sorted swiftly. The no-risk free trial offer
is a good way to try before you commit further and after even just a few days
you will know if this unique racing service is right for you.

Here is the link to his Cheltenham Deal Offer.

PS He has put together a pretty comprehensive race by race pdf stats package
for Cheltenham. Based on 13 years of data it will arguably hold a lot of validity
next year and may be a document worth referring to even if you are not on his
service at that time. The welcome email he sends on joining provides the download
link.

 

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Sample Service Email  – best read as the firm bets are those  under selections or mentions categories at  top.  Everything else is extra to do with what you will.

Mathematician 1205

No Selections

3 Mentions Today

The first four races are managable. The last three are not.
I have backed away from the later races with only a short
piece on each. The sensible plan is to mortgage time from
these races and use that for some serious work tomorrow
on the later races there. I may have some very significant
work tomorrow on these races and they interest me a lot
more than the later races today. I think that may pay off.

That leaves today a quieter day than yesterday and far less
significant than tomorrow. It is a day of consolidation.
It’s a case of getting what we can early and then shutting
down until tomorrow when the Generic Stats will set the tone.
I am deliberately light with 3 bets today. I dont see any skill in
some of the races today. I could have each way winners in
good each way races like the 2.40 and 3.20 but it would not
take much skill and having losers in these races would not infer
I had done much wrong either. I am just saying I dont feel I am
offering you any stronger opinion than you may have yourselves.
I will feel I can tomorrow and that’s a generally more interesting
day than today so just 3 bets.

Cheltenham 1.30

FOUR COMMANDERS 12/1 Win Bet

TEAFORTHREE 6/1 Saver Bet

Cheltenham 2.40

FIRST LIEUTENANT 5/1

Each Way

Cheltenham 3.20

FINIAN4S RAINBOW 11/2

Each Way

 

G e n e r i c   S t a t i s t i c s

Good start for the Generics yesterday with all 5 losing in
the same race but as they were 1-2-3 in the market it was
a better result than it looked and nice to be 5-0 ahead now

There are no Qualifiers today. Thats mainly because there
are no Handicap Chases today. There will be lots tomorrow.

T u e s d a y ‘s   S u m m a r y

We had an unusual day with 6 bets. In the end there was just one winner
and in a split stake bet but ALFIE SHERRIN did win at a big price and
that was enough to show a profit which is something at least.
If we had a #10 bet on each of the bets staking #60 in total the returns would be roughly #95
so it’s paying for at least the next 3 bets. I’m pleased to be in front and
I would have taken that at the start of the day but it was not easy and it
was by no means a classic and to be honest a little bit dissapointed despite
the profit. It started badly with the Supreme Novice where my bet lost and
the winner was a poor profile and tipped by Ronnie Corbett.
AL FEROF does not bother me. A Bad mistake did for him but
I fancied the winner I just went to value. I see him as an Unneccesary bet.

The 2.40pm was so beautiful. We got 5 Generic Stats beaten
and the winner in Alfie Sherrin. It took lots of pressure off  my back
and it got us up and running and a brilliant preview  as well.
That was as good as it got. I didnt fancy the winner in the Champion Hurdle.
I thought the bet was Binocular as an each way bet without the favourite and
that would have scraped a place but I went for different bets and lost.
Not a lot to complain about as I wouldn’t have backed the winner.

I thought a good effort in the 5.15pm albeit with ridiculous staking.
CLOUDY START at Southwell was awful as he had a very bad ride
and surely would have gone close had he been ridden better.
I was honest in saying I didnt have time to be confident but given such a bad ride
I’m glad I didnt and it did leave a nasty taste in the mouth. I said we had to win
early and we did but it was harder than I thought and I need to up my game a bit.
I loved the winner as it was a real diamond but there were far too many things I got wrong elsewhere.

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P R O F I L E S  @  P R E V I E W S

C h e l t e n h a m  W e d n e s d a y  1.30

Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase
(Amateur Riders4 Novices4 Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) 4m

11/2 Harry The Viking, 6/1 Allee Garde, 13/2 Soll
13/2 Teaforthree, 8/1 Alfie Spinner, 12/1 Four Commanders
12/1 Universal Soldier, 14/1 Daffern Seal, 16/1 State Benefit 20/1 Blenheim Brook,
Cottage Oak, 20/1 Iron Chancellor 20/1 Our Island, 20/1 Strongbows Legend,
25/1 Lively Baron 33/1 Ben4s Folly, 33/1 Bob 4n4 You, 33/1 Leggy Lad 33/1
Our Victoria, 50/1 Court Red Handed.

The NH Chase is never easy but fascinating to see which
profiles survive a rigorous statistical examination.
I’d see SOLL as underraced and one to avoid. He has had only 2
Chase starts both on right handed tracks. He has had less
than 4 races this season something almost every winner
has had. He is up from 2m 4f and I note his trainer stated
he wished he had raced once more as inexperience was a
factor. I agree and his profile isn’t right. I would also take out
DAFFERN SEAL for similar reasons and because his
sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m yet. Despite 3 chase
runs I see UNIVERSAL SOLDIER underraced as well and
no mitigation as his sire hasn’t bred a winner over this far.

* HARRY THE VIKING has some problems
* He only has 2 chase races and that worries me
* His 76 day absence doesnt help either
* I wanted more chase runs and a more recent run
* All recent winners had more backclass than he does
* There is also a stamina doubt
* His Sire hasn’t had a winner beyond 3m 3f yet

* I would avoid horses with poor recent runs
* OUR ISLAND didnt do enough last time
* STRONGBOWS LEGEND didnt do enough last time
* BEN4S FOLLY – didnt do enough last time
* BLENHEIM BROOK – outsider with a chance
* There is no guarantee he will stay though
* STATE BENEFIT – I dont feel he is good enough
* BOB 4N4 YOU – Underraced this year

* I looked at horses from Handicap Chases
* None of these won with a run in the past month
* Most horses from handicaps came from Novice Handicaps
* Those that come from ordinary handicaps are 1-84
* That was a Graded Handicap as well
* No winners came from an ordinary Handicap Chase
* IRON CHANCELLOR has that dissapointing preparation
* He also lacks the backclass I’d like

S h o r t l i s t

* ALLEE GARDE is clearly one of the sexier runners
* Statistically I dont have a problem with him
* My biggest doubt is stamina
* He is French Bred and has only won at 3 miles
* That win was his sires longest winner from his runners
* None sired by Kapgrade have won beyond 3m
* I dont see any  evidence he wants this 4m distance

FOUR COMMANDERS

He is unsafe as a 6 year old. This age group have struggled
with a 1-49 record. It may just be time to revisit this stat.
I had a quick look and noticed there were quite a few going
close and I set about this in a slightly different way because
many are underraced here and FOUR COMMANDERS
isn’t and one of these few that you can argue will stay this far.

* Horses aged 6
* Starting in the first 8 horses in the betting
* Running within 50 days
* Having at least 3 previous Chase starts like all past winners
* The record of 6 year olds with this profile is as follows
* 2nd 2nd 16th WON 5th Fell 10th 2nd

That puts the 6 year old argument into a different context.
Thats not a bad record. Only 8 with this profile have tried
and half of these were 2 2 W 2. Consider the faller in that
record as well. That was Nine De Sivola in 1997 and I can
remember he was travelling very nicely before falling just
3 fences from home and he would have placed as well. Its
time to stop kicking  the dog. Its time to end this war on
6 year olds in this race. It was only 3 years since one won
and if its the right type of 6 year old and not being asked
to do something too hard like defy inexperience or a long
absence then the record suggests these horses do very well.

* LIVELY BARON – Shouldnt be 33/1
* He may not have the toe to win but he has positives
* He is statistically fine and has serious connections

* BLENHEIM BROOK – Lively outsider at 20/1 +
* Again may lack the class but he does have positives

* ALFIE SPINNER has no problems statistically
* He has to prove he stays this far
* His sires runners have lost when running beyond 3m 4f
* You’d also want a bit softer ground as well
* Nevertheless a solid chance

* TEAFORTHREE must have a very good chance
* He has smart form in 3 Chase starts and excuses in a 4th
* The ground should be fine given this is 4m
* His sire (Oscar) has bred the winner of this race before
* TEAFORTHREE must have a very sound chance

Selection

I had Teaforthree pencilled in for this race for a while
now but I am not sure its that safe a selection. Partly
the ground and the trainers festival pedigree. I decided
to have a rethink and downgrade him to a saver. Much
will depend on the stamina of both Alfie Spinner and
Allee Garde but I decided to take these on. I would be
keen to have small cover bets on Blenheim Brook or
Lively Baron but in the end I have come down rather
surprisingly on the 6 year old FOUR COMMANDERS
as I believe a certain type of 6 year old do well and a
certain other type do not. FOUR COMMANDERS is
in the right group and I think he can win this today

FOUR COMMANDERS 12/1 Win Bet
TEAFORTHREE 6/1 Saver Bet

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C h e l t e n h a m  W e d n e s d a y  2.05

Neptune Investment Management Novices4 Hurdle
(Registered As Baring Bingham Novices4 Hurdle)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

2/1 Simonsig, 5/1 Monksland, 11/2 Sous Les Cieux
7/1 Batonnier, 7/1 Make Your Mark, 14/1 Cotton Mill
16/1 Benefficient, 20/1 Felix Yonger, 25/1 Nelson4s Bridge
33/1 Secret Edge, 40/1 Nagpur, 50/1 Close House
50/1 Double Ross, 50/1 Fiulin, 50/1 Natural High
66/1 Sunny Ledgend, 66/1 The Tracey Shuffle
100/1 Baldadash, 100/1 Brass Tax.

The Neptune is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f. I think we have
to stay with 5 and 6 year olds. The statistics are too strong to consider
other age groups. For the same reasons I would only consider horses
that were 1st or 2nd last time and only then if in Class 3 Grade or higher
as the record of horses stepping up in class further is awful.
It is here we have to say goodbye to NELSON4S BRIDGE who is
short of runs anyway. I wasnt keen on BENEFFICIENT as he nicked a
Grade 1 last time in a falsely run race. He started 50/1 that day and that hints
he got away with it and I think he will get found out here. I see FELIX YONGER
as opposable. There are stronger runners from the same stable.
COTTON MILL is respected as he is unbeaten but I dont want an ex flat horse in a race like this.

* MAKE YOUR MARK – Beaten further than ideal last time
* With 2 hurdle runs I wouldn’t have turned down another run

* BATONNIER has won 2 of his 9 National Hunt runs
* That seems a very low strike rate to me
* He was W-3-5-5 in Bumpers and lost his last 3 as well
* His Hurdles form is 2 2 3 2 W
* It took him 5 runs to win a hurdle race
* That was a Grade 2 race but he is still only 2 from 9
* Almost all past winners have a very high strike rate
* He doesnt and I see limitations with him

S h o r t l i s t

* SIMONSIG is clearly a very smart horse
* He fails one of the most unusual trends
* English horses with 4-5-6 runs have scored badly
* Not a trend I trust but it’s worth bearing in mind
* He has done little wrong and must be shortlisted
* I cant help feeling his is a little overhyped
* At a short price he is respected but doesnt appeal

* MONKSLAND is unbeaten in 2 hurdles and a bumper
* I’d prefer another hurdle run given his absence
* That said statistically its not a major hindrance
* His profile is very similar to 2010 winner Peddlers Cross
* He isnt far away from No Refuge the 2005 winner
* I think he has a bit to find but he is unbeaten

* SOUS LES CIEUX has a serious chance
* I liked a lot about his profile
* He will love the step up in trip and the ground
* He does have a slightly lower strike rate than ideal
* He has won just 2 of 6 runs
* He should have won last time in a race with a false pace
* That would have put his strike rate where it should be
* His previous defeat at 2m had excuses as well
* That is too short a distance for this horse
* SOUS LES CIEUX has a serious chance for me

Selection

Hard to be sure here with SIMONSIG a bit of a hype horse
but still with a serious chance and you have the 2nd and 3rd
favourites MONKSLAND and SOUS LES CIEUX Irish and
hard to read. In truth my angles in the race have changed so much in
recent years they are almost under revision and in a period of adjustment
and I dont trust my stats here. I am tempted by MONKSLAND but with SOUS LES CIEUX we
have under half the absence and more experience as well.

Selection – SOUS LES CIEUX 13/2 Each Way

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C h e l t e n h a m  W e d n e s d a y  2.40

RSA Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m110y

6/4 Grands Crus, 3/1 Bobs Worth, 5/1 First Lieutenant
6/1 Join Together, 20/1 Call The Police, 20/1 Lambro
33/1 Walkon, 40/1 Cannington Brook, 50/1 Mr Moonshine.

The R.S.A has a managable field and there are plenty you
can rule out. MR MOONSHINE is not running well enough
to consider. WALKON isnt conditioned to run this far and
CANNINGTON BROOK only won a Novice Handicap last
time. CALL THE POLICE is older than most winners yet
has less experience than any of them. LAMBRO feels just
one grade lower than is ideal and I see this between four.

FIRST LIEUTENANT has a perfectly respectable profile.
The one statistic he fails is that every winner since 1991
managed to run within 53 days and he’s been off 77 days
and that is just a niggling issue his backers need to wrestle with.
JOIN TOGETHER fails the same statistic.
He is an inexperienced horse compared to some of these and has
fewer runs this season than all the main runners. I think
puts him at a slight disadvantage with some of the others.

* FIRST LIEUTENANT – I prefer him to Join Together

On Boxing day in the Feltham GRANDS CRUS won with
BOBS WORTH back in 3rd place. The fact that he hasnt
run since means GRANDS CRUS lacks any run in 79 days
and thats more than all winners since 1991. Statistically
that is GRANDS CRUS’s biggest problem. Whats also less
relevant but still interesting is that all 17 Feltham winners that raced
in this race have been beaten. In that Feltham the arguments against
BOBS WORTH were strong. I had him as a big negative that day going
up in trip with just 1 run that year. I think BOBS WORTH could easily
reverse that form and beat GRAND CRUS. He’s going left handed too
which suits him better. BOBS WORTH has also been  out and won
and has that important recent race. There is also the slight doubt that
GRAND CRUS may not stay in  a Grade 1 like this over an exteneded
3 miles. Statistically  the safest choice of these 2 is BOBS WORTH especially
as many horses beaten in the Feltham have come out to  win this
and that BOBS WORTH is 3-3 at Cheltenham.

I think there is enough evidence to make GRAND CRUS
just a little unnatractive at the prices. I think the best bet is either
BOBS WORTH or FIRST LIEUTENANT each
way. It was a close decision. FIRST LIEUTENANT got it.

Selection

FIRST LIEUTENANT 5/1

Each Way

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C h e l t e n h a m  W e d n e s d a y  3.20

Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m

10/11 Sizing Europe, 7/2 Finian4s Rainbow, 4/1 Big Zeb
14/1 Kauto Stone, 14/1 Wishfull Thinking, 16/1 Realt Dubh
33/1 Gauvain, 66/1 I4m So Lucky.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase has another small
field this year which seems to be the norm. I cant see a
case for either GAUVAIN or I4M SO LUCKY. Horses
aged 6 have struggled a bit in recent years. I feel unsafe
with a 6 year old and if that 6yo ran badly last time I’d
be even less interested as a good recent run is important
as well. KAUTO STONE is 6 and ran poorly last time.
WISHFULL THINKING comes here after a bad run at
Ascot and with 2 poor runs from 3 starts I dont have a
good enough case for him. REALT DUBH has a longer
absence than any past winners and looks unsafe.

* FINIAN4S RAINBOW is a little inexperienced
* Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 8 Chase starts
* FINIAN4S RAINBOW has 7 Chase starts
* Given the frame of the race he has to be a positive
* BIG ZEB’s problem he is an 11yo
* Moscow Flyer won aged 11 back in 2005
* The previous horse that age to win was 1977
* He failed to win this as a 10 year old
* Obvious each way chance but his age bothers me
* SIZING EUROPE won this race last year
* He clearly has the best chance but I have 2 problems
* He had a hard race last time on heavy ground
* That will take some getting over
* Secondly His price is short enough for a race like this

Selection

It could be a strategic mistake to oppose the favourite
but given the frame of the race I think I should and I’m
going with youth rather than experience and although
perhaps one run short of ideal FINIAN4S RAINBOW
looks the best option each way at the prices.

Selection

FINIAN4S RAINBOW 11/2

Each Way

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C h e l t e n h a m  W e d n e s d a y  4.00

Coral Cup (A Handicap Hurdle)
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m5f

7/1 Balgarry, 10/1 Get Me Out Of Here, 10/1 Poole Master
14/1 Act Of Kalanisi, 14/1 Carlito Brigante, 14/1 Dare Me
14/1 Final Approach, 16/1 Cape Dutch, 16/1 Featherbed Lane
16/1 Spirit River, 16/1 Third Intention, 20/1 Knight Pass
20/1 Shoreacres, 20/1 Silverhand, Veiled, 25/1 Abergavenny
25/1 Megastar, 25/1 Star Of Angels, 25/1 Tenor Nivernais
33/1 Cockney Trucker, 33/1 Consigliere, 33/1 Cotillion
33/1 Saphir River, 40/1 Bally Legend, 40/1 First Fandango
40/1 Stonemaster, 50/1 Golan Way, 50/1 Son Of Flicka.

I am weak in the Handicap Hurdles. This is one of the tough
ones and I dont have a good record in it. I dont think many
others do either. I had a quick scan of my angles to try for a shortlist.
I ended up with 5 options once I had played about  a but with the race
but I always get options in this race and I am still waiting to get the race right.
No interest here really.

I was quite happy to oppose GET ME OUT OF HERE as an
8yo with 11st 12lbs when 8 year olds have struggled and no
8yo has won with 11st 1lbs or more. SILVERHAND would
not interest me either. Pricewise are on him but I’ve looked at every
hurdle race run at the festival before novices and in handicaps and no
exposed horse has won with more than 10 weeks absence.
I appreciate BALGARRY won 11 days ago but I looked at every
handicap hurdle run at the festival in recent years and no 5 year
olds have won without at least 3 runs that season and BALGARRY
has just one run. With just one run this year SPIRIT RIVER also looked
wrong. I looked at all Handicap hurdles run here and horses from a
Novice Hurdle and none were like POOLE MASTER so it may be
best to oppose him as well. SON OF FLICKA and VEILED and
FIRST FANDANGO gave me no confidence
they could defy their absence. Its wide open but I felt the
above horses were weak. I shortlisted four horses in this.

FINAL APPROACH 20/1 -KNIGHT PASS 33/1
DARE ME  14/1 -CAPE DUTCH 16/1

Selection

DARE ME 14/1

Not confident here but go back a few years and all the
8yo winners were similar and had 10st 6lbs and less and
lightly raced this year so I will go with him but I will be
happy if any of my shortlist wins and its not my sort of
race and not one I would want to have a selection in.

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C h e l t e n h a m  W e d n e s d a y  4.40

Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m110y

7/2 Vendor, 7/1 Kazlian, 8/1 Ulck Du Lin, 12/1 Edeymi
12/1 Gorgeous Sixty, 14/1 Argocat, 14/1 Kapga De Cerisy
14/1 Royal Bonsai, 16/1 Ardlui, 16/1 Dark And Dangerous
16/1 Lemon Drop Red, 16/1 Soliwery, 16/1 Sportsmaster
20/1 Arnaud, 20/1 Bat Masterson, 20/1 Chill
20/1 Jackies Solitaire, 25/1 Blue Cannon, 25/1 High Samana
25/1 Une Artiste, 33/1 Colebrooke, 33/1 Kie, 33/1 Moujik Borget 33/1 One Cool Shabra.

The Fred Winter is a ridiculous race really. The trends are
not strong with just 7 renewals and they are complicated a
lot more this year with so many having runs in France. It
would be silly to pretend I can sort this race out.
There is plenty of confidence in VENDOR but I dont like the break
he has had or the fact he has just one English start. With
ULCK DU LIN having never raced in England before and
GORGEOUS SIXTY having only Irish and French form it
is a race where my hands are tied. I have gone through all
my angles and come up with a shortlist of two horses that
satisfy most questions I had about the race. Both are good
prices but nobody can really know what chance they have

Selection

EDEYMI 16/1 Win Bet
LEMON DROP RED Win Bet

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C h e l t e n h a m  W e d n e s d a y  5.15

Weatherbys Champion Bumper
(Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race)
Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4-6yo) 2m110y

6/1 New Year4s Eve, 7/1 Moscow Mannon
7/1 Royal Guardsman, 8/1 Champagne Fever, 8/1 Pique Sous
12/1 Jezki, 12/1 The New One, 14/1 Horatio Hornblower
14/1 Sir Johnson, 16/1 Clonbanan Lad, 16/1 Village Vic
20/1 Many Clouds, 25/1 Yes Way Hosay, 33/1 Circular Quay
33/1 Cool George, 33/1 Ifandbutwhynot, 33/1 Virginia Ash
50/1 The Romford Pele, 100/1 Piano Concerto
150/1 Glenwood Present.

The Bumper never offers me anything and my angles dont
help as much as they would need to. I ran them and I had 5
horses left and I have no idea what any of these could do.

Shortlist

* Moscow Mannon -Royal Guardsman
* The New One – Clonbanan Lad -Pique Sous

No selection

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www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Cheltenham
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