I am now past the halfway stage to see if you can get a decent return from
following tipsters’ recommendations so, inspired by the inquiries of one eagle-eyed
reader, I decided to open up my betting records to The Observer’s tipster, Eddie
Freemantle, and the ‘thinking man’s betting forum’, www.punters-paradise.com.
With more than 430 bets recorded since May from the subscription tipping services
of Steve Lewis Hamilton, Sport 4 Profit and The Mathematician, I’ve been acutely
aware of both potential errors and the difficulty in providing readers with
a fair rendering of the big picture as the weeks unfold. So with Eddie scrutinising
the arithmetic, it was down to ‘Doc’ from Punters-Paradise to interpret the
raw data. At the outset, I consciously set out to supply results appropriate
to two betting profiles – a keen hobby punter like myself who supplements his
own betting with selective usage of the tipsters’ selections, and an investor-type
approach, where I’ve recorded the performance of the relevant services at level
stakes of £100 (or £50 each way) per bet advised. This approach may have confused
some readers. In the first model, my starting pot of £200 has grown to £671.62
by the end of week 31, with a combination of my own football betting and the
tipsters’ racing and rugby selections.
In terms of the latter ‘survey proper’ profile, Steve Lewis Hamilton’s services
are £5,850.83 in profit, the Mathematician’s internet racing service is in profit
to £105.85, while Sport 4 Profit’s Rugby Singles Club is up £941.68.
Sport 4 Profit’s golf service, by contrast, has suffered substantial losses:
£4,904.58 in pursuit of big-priced tournament winners between 33/1 and 150/1.
By way of context, my former boss, Eamonn The Amateur McCloskey, has garnered
a negative tally of £1,121.67 trying to pick winners from his morning paper.
As regards ongoing profitability, ‘Doc’ believes there is no reason why all
five tipsters should not make a long-term profit – despite the current standings:
‘Before writing off or endorsing any service, we need to have a significant
number of bets. The exact number will depend on the certainty we desire, the
profitability and the average odds. With the exception of the SLH Private Service,
we simply don’t have enough data to be definitive.’ At this point, I’d contend
that joining one of these services is neither ‘easy money’ nor suitable for
everyone.
Since May, my own bank has grown as high as £1,000 and fallen back to £400
– losing runs, sometimes long losing runs, are an occupational hazard and not
everyone has the temperament to surf the reversals. For instance, despite being
well over £5,500 up, SLH’s strike rate is just over one winner in every four
bets recommended. I may be speaking too soon, of course, but for cool heads
with a disciplined approach to staking and some time to dedicate to betting
each day, I’d say there’s definitely a lot of fun – and not insignificant returns
– to be had.
Published in The Observer Newspaper Jan 2006
