Premier Football Bets Review

Premier Football Bets Review

Service Name: Premier Football
Bets

Sports Covered: English Premiership Football

Bet Frequency: Approx 20
bets per month

Bet Delivery: Selections
are emailed out to clients on Wednesday with lots of notice for midweek
games.

Pricing: Full season membership
£250

Website:http://premierfootballbets.com/

Progambler Discount: Yes

£199 for a 12 month subscription (Save
£60!!)

£129 for a 6 month subscription (Save £30)

£79 for a 3 month subscription

Service In Brief:
Led by Secret Betting Club Editor, Peter Ling and a small team of analysts,
Premier Football Bets offer an alternative take on The Premiership. The selections
are based on stats, market analysis and the fruits of Peter’s personal research.

 

Service in Detail:

Premier Football Bets debuted last season (2011-2012) for paying.
This season, Premier Football Bets appear to be going from strength to strength.

Peter takes up the story: “My idea was based on a simple
theory, namely that with proper analysis, money could be made in The Premiership.
I was prepared to put in the hard yards and research and to see this theory
tested in the glare of public scrutiny.”

To this end, Peter has created his own unique bespoke databases
of Premiership stats which are updated each week himself.

He says: “These are databases I have designed myself. Though
the raw data is one thing, you won’t find my particular modeling of that information
anywhere else.”

Pete’s view is that hype, especially short-term driven hype
and fan sentiment are the key drivers of Premiership betting markets – it
makes sense given that the Premiership is the biggest betting market in world
football, in an industry dominated by 24 hour media. The need for quantity
will always outweigh quality as a simple function of the airspace and pages
required to be filled. There is a lot of rubbish that is passed off as genuine
news and most of it is irrelevant for betting purposes.

He says: “Far too often you’ll see a specific side ascribed
with incorrect odds relative to an objective combination of stats, betting
experience and a logical approach to their chances. It is clear that value
can be had if you know where to look.

Each bet advised is based upon the Premier Football Bets’
team’s value examination and their belief that over time, their edge will
play out as a steady profit.”

In summary Premier Football Bets is a classic value betting
proposition based on taking positions on teams that are often unfashionable
and generally ‘against the crowd’.

Peter says: “The beauty of betting on the Premiership is
that you will very rarely if ever have a bet knocked back at high stakes with
a half-decent bookie or on the exchanges. It’s a hugely liquid market and
it takes a lot of money to move an odds line.”

The downside of betting on The Premiership is that it is
the one league that the bookies plough their resources into in terms of allocating
personnel and research.

Again though, Peter believes that this isn’t the insurmountable
problem that it first appears.

Peter says: “People often say the huge disadvantage about
betting on a league like this is because ‘everyone knows everything’ there
is to know. That is true, but sometimes it seems, that what they know isn’t
very accurate or that they focus on the wrong angle.

He says: “How often do you see a manager suddenly find themselves
under pressure and a major media story because his team has lost a few games
on the bounce. Thousands of lines are written on the story, headlines made
and before you know it, the odds have been inflated on them to win next time
– far beyond their realistic chance of actually doing so.”

The fact is also that the money swilling around in The Premiership
pays for squad depth that in turn mitigates against injuries, suspensions
and loss of form (that are the key drivers of results in so-called minor
leagues). This is another massive plus for certain punters. Premiership clubs’
strength in depth in terms of personnel ensures that stats respond far more
predictably week to week and in effect ensures that some basic assumptions
about teams’ fundamental strengths and weaknesses can be largely taken as
read.

The Premier Football Bets’ philosophy is to make steady
incremental gains betting over a full season in pre-match and antepost markets
(there are a few longer term seasonal bets).

The concept is for a low workload, low fuss service that
aims to achieve around a 40% – 50% return on capital each season. So far it
has been up to that mark over its first 328 bets that took us up to the end
of last season.

This season the scores on the doors are as follows:

On the basis of these numbers, I would be happy to recommend
Premier Football Bets to any
www.progambler.co.uk readers.

Service Proofing: The proofing period runs from October
2009 up until the 28th Sept 2012.

Service Results: The results are largely typical of a service with a low bet volume
(generally under 20 bets per month). That is to say, the difference between
a middling and very good season in terms of ROI% could well come down to results
in as few as five bets over a 10 month season.

Let’s take last season’s figures first of all:

Season
2012

Bets

Stakes

Profit

ROI%

ROC%

Actual
Returns

152

154

13.71pts

8.9

54.84

As you can see the ROC% figure is great with the 8.9% ROI
returns just a little bit beneath the expected 10%+ figure that generally
indicates a top performing service. However, let’s assume a swing of just
five more bets last season at a handy to calculate price of evens (2.0) going
Peter’s way.

That would then leave us with figures looking like this:

Season
2012

Bets

Stakes

Profit

ROI%

ROC%

Projected
Returns (+ five more winners)

152

154

23.71pts

15.6

94.84%

As you’ll agree the two scenarios painted here look dramatically
different and when the sample of bets is so small then the margins are perilously
fine between great success and something more middle of the road.

Isolating a sequence of five solitary bets that margin could
come down to the width of a goalpost here or there, the decisions of the ref
in the heat of the moment, own goals, flukes, a miracle save. Call it what
you will statistical variance, sheer bad luck, a few little details going
against you – it has a big impact.

And of course it could work in the other direction. Five
more equivalent losers would take the ROI% down to 5.6% and the ROC% to 34%.

Five winners are easily buried within a 152 bet season but
the ramifications of these five bets (just 3% of the total season’s betting
outlay) can make or break a season in terms of headline figures. But as with
everything in The Premiership it makes sense to take your view beyond the
headlines.

In respect of betting style and bet volume levels, Premier
Football Bets has much in common with Matt Love’s excellent service Football
Elite which can also suffer short-term fluctuations of ROI% for exactly the
same reason. Both Matt and I am sure Peter too would argue that their style
of betting lends itself to a relatively safe and steady approach to investing
in large unit stakes per bet – which it does.

It is hard to argue against this case and Premier Football
Bets boast a steady and consistent ROI% of 8.4% over the proofed period of
328 bets since October 2009.

Premier Football Bets is an obvious candidate for anyone
looking for a steady, incremental earner to add to their portfolio. That said,
my preference would be to try and maintain that ROI% figure over many more
bets (say a minimum 75 more and potentially as many as 150 additional bets).
Obviously, this is tenable only as long as enough comparable opportunities
present themselves as bets and that is something only the service will know
themselves.

Assuming that it is possible to boost the number
of bets each season then this could open up the opportunity to radically boost
that ROC% figure and also ensure a good return in a middling season of results
and spectacular returns when everything really falls into place.

The reality for real-life clients in that scenario, of course,
could end up being one and the same. The fact is most punters in advance of
doubling their number of bets with a betting tipster would probably prefer
to spread their risk by halving their stake per point as opposed to doubling
up their betting bank.

Finding a tipster you like is never something reducible
to the numbers on a spreadsheet and Peter’s approach is largely informed by
the experience gleaned from his role at
SBC.

He says: “We don’t look to profit
month in, month out but instead have the belief that over a full season’s
worth of bets, our value edge will shine through. Each bet is chosen on the
fact it offers value and the odds quoted are higher than the percentage chance
we feel the bet actually has.

“In many ways it’s a world away from the tipsters who supply
a large number of bets or aim for high ROI or quick turnover of banks. Instead
it hopefully brings a much safer approach, with the majority of bets advised
between the odds range 1.8 to 2.30 – ensuring a relatively high strike-rate.”

Peter says that no doubt Premier Football Bets has certainly
been formed by his own preferences honed by exposure to the results of hundreds
of sports and racing tipsters.

He says: “The services I have found to prosper are those
built on the right foundations and who take a long-term view. No doubt I
have learnt both indirectly and directly exactly how to take a winning value
approach from seeing at close quarters how other successful tipsters make
their own sports work.”

One last thing to add is that 328 bets last season is still
a relatively small sample however what does stand out is a pleasing, upward
sense of progress.

As you can see here:

 

Bets

Stakes

Profit

Yield

Return
on Capital

Rating

ROC

Proofed
bets only 

338

354.07

31.53

8.91%     

       
126.41%

30.10

126.14%

Last
3 months

10

5.00

2.20

44.05%       

      
8.81%

4.41

8.81%

Last
6 months

26

15.57

3.12

20.02%         

      
12.47%

5.21

12.47%

Last
12 months

138

136.57

12.62

9.24%           

          
50.47%

12.75

50.47%

2009/10
season

63

77.50

10.66

13.75%         

       
42.63%

8.66

42.63%

2010/11
season

113

118

5

4.23%           

         
19.68%

4.77

19.86%

2011/12
season

152.00

154

13.71

8.90%            

          
54.84%

13.53

54.84%

2012/13
season

10.00

5.00

2.20

44.05%         

         
8.81%

4.41

8.81%

NB: It is worth noting that in terms of the current season
it is very early days with just five points staked over 10 bets. Expect the
number of bets to increase imminently as there is now some strong form in
the book (and counting).

There is every reason to believe that Peter is in charge
of an improving service where the finessing of his approach, angles and experience
is bearing fruit. This appears to be borne out by the profit graph below.
As you can see 65% of the current bank growth has been added in the last 70
or so bets. As someone who monitors this service daily I would say that is
probably no accident. Early in their careers good tipsters often enjoy an
early jump up in results consistent with the fact that betting is essentially
a work in progress, a sometimes steep learning curve.

Betting Banks: With Peter’s largely bets concentrated in the 1.8-2.0 (4/5 – evens)
odds range this is not a service that suffers long losing runs. In the proofed
period, there is one sequence of five consecutive losers in February 2011
but generally the norm for a losing run is up to three losers. With that in
mind you could probably work well off a 20pt bank and 25pts would offer you
an extreme degree of comfort. When the temptation is to presume the grass
is greener elsewhere, it is almost worth taking a pause and contrasting the
Premier Football Bets attitude to risk against a typical high odds, high bet
turnover service. Certainly, don’t just focus on the potential returns in
service’s marketing pitches. It is simply essential that you formulate your
own honest attitude to possible losses in advance and also to the simple ups
and downs of the betting rollercoaster ride over time.

For example, with a high turnover horseracing service it
is not uncommon to see losing runs of 10-15 selections in a downturn – something
your betting bank, individual point size and personal psychology should reflect
in advance. The gains you make with services like Premier Football Bets may
not be as immediately headline-grabbing but they should be incremental and
relatively steady.

Odds Availability: The Premiership is the one league where bookmaker competition is such
that you should have no problem being accommodated somewhere – even to high
stakes. Peter tends to focus on the Asian Handicap, overs and unders goals
and antepost bets where the current position is re-examined throughout the
season and traded where necessary. These bets all fall into the big liquidity
markets typical of the Premiership.

Service Practicality: Easy to use, easy to understand, Premier Football Bets is a good proposition
for both time-pressed and novice punters alike. Peter uses a roster of seven
key bookmakers such as SBO Bet and Pinnacle. The good news is that, if you
have active accounts with
UK high street bookies you can generally get on at even better prices.
If you can’t: the projected profits of Premier Football Bets should still
be widely attainable.

Customer Service: Peter has seen it all before in terms of tipsters’ good and bad customer
service and Premier Football Bets is everything you would expect it to be
in terms of looking after clients and running a tight, fair ship.

Service In Summary:
Premier Football Bets is a very good low volatility, high strike rate service
that appears to be improving. Other services will boast more spectacular profits
however the trade-off for higher potential returns is always a greater risk
to capital overall and also the likelihood of nerve-testing losing runs. Whether
it is a service for you (or not) will come down to your attitude to risk relative
to your expectation of returns.

If you are looking for steady
returns and a low workload, low risk service then Premier Football Bets is
probably ideal for you.

If interested in joining this service note the secret page discount rates
on offer to ProGambler readers at the link below

Premier Football Bets Discounted

 

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