The Mathematician Progambler Report

Boasting a profit on investment figure of 31 per cent, Observer Tipster Survey Profits of £5,128.75 and a strike rate of 17%. The Mathematician aka Guy Ward had every reason to be pleased with his performance under the glare of public scrutiny back in 2005/06.

Nothing stands still in the world of betting however and, two years after my initial research began, Ward is anticipating his best year ever telling members earlier this week: “I think I have taken it to a different level this season and results are showing this. That’s why we are going to have a very interesting season. Watch this year because I plan for a Masterclass and a record profit”.

So is it an idle boast? Recent results suggest not.

Since year two monitoring began again, on July 4th 2006, that profit on investment figure has been boosted to 47.78%. Returns are up too – to advised prices 50.5pts, 44.79pts at SP. The strike rate has been boosted to 36.7% with 40 win and placed selections from 109 account bets. Ward’s 26 winners were recommended at prices ranging between 11/10 and 14/1. His longest winning run has been three winners (twice). His longest losing sequence has been nine selections.

When looked at over the course of the last eleven months as a whole, the results are more remarkable given that they coincided with a National Hunt season that proved to be a real winter of discontent for virtually every major tipster in the country. With variable weather conditions throughout the back end of the year inhibiting the emergence of reliable form or trends many services saw all their summer profits simply frittered away, others incurred a deficit, others still have seen their slump drag on into the summer.

As such, some Progambler members, who took advantage of a previous subscription offer, may have been distinctly underwhelmed with The Mathematician’s performance during the jumps campaign. However, in retrospect, his decision to rein in his ambitions and recommend relatively few bets in this sticky period looks like a masterstroke – even if it proved frustrating for members who had paid for tips. The Mathematician recommended a mere 15 account bets between January 3rd and May 5th this year. Since then however, the frequency has returned to ‘normal’ levels with another 14 account bets slated between May 11th and June 12th this year.

Of course, many of you will already know The Mathematician’s work from the free content on this site. Since the inception of Progambler’s free Saturday Column in November last year, The Mathematician has been providing analysis and selections every Saturday. He began with a bang tipping up State of Play at 8/1 to win The Hennessy. Last Saturday’s column (9th June 2007) tipped up three out of three winners – Eager Igor 4/1,  Eradicate 11/4 and Drifting Gold 6/4. Those column contributions, archived here on the site, are a representative selection of the kind of exhaustive info, angles and analysis that is made available to The Mathematician’s members each lunchtime via email.

As I’ve said before, each message typically combines the day’s featured bets (account bets) alongside analysis of usually around ten supporting races on the day’s cards with accompanying break-downs that highlight potential betting strategies for each race, shortlists of positive and negative runners based on stats and historical trends, horses to lay on the exchanges and runners that can be backed in combination in the same race with the aim of securing a profit.

In common with the best racing advisor services (as opposed to simple tipping operations) the accent at is very much a commitment to empowering members to make better, more informed, betting choices, alongside showcasing the headline account tips that are the subject of Progambler’s ongoing monitoring. For example, The Mathematician’s excellent member’s web forum, unlike the majority of betting sites, is a pretty egalitarian place where new members are welcomed with open arms and no question is too trivial for either Guy or his extended community of seasoned and novice bettors alike. As a result, Guy Ward’s service particularly attracts both women and older bettors – two constituencies who are not well served elsewhere by bookmakers, websites or the betting industry as a whole.

As The Saturday Columns probably illustrate, The Mathematician service is not suitable for everyone. Those looking for a simple horse name, time and race will be frustrated by Guy Ward’s singular writing style and dense messages that can stretch to thousands of words. However, after even a few months of membership most members, just like myself, find a way to use the messages that chimes with their personal betting philosophy. With demands on my time, I simply cut to the chase and concentrate on backing Guy’s account selections. Other members lay his negatives on the exchanges, while others still, look to combine horses in multiple bets or back through a televised card using his advice.

As a service based on constantly evolving stats and form research, Guy Ward’s service inevitably has the feel of an ongoing work in progress. Nevertheless, The Mathematician’s confident prediction quoted at the head of this report is indicative of both the growing refinement and increased confidence in his methodologies and daily messages that I have witnessed over the last two years.

I’d heartily recommend that you sign up for a membership and test with your own eyes. There is a no quibble refund guarantee with his service if it does not suit your personal style.

Visit his site for more info

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